PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz
Since the end of World
War II, the preeminent naval power in the Indo-Pacific region is the United
States. However, in the past decade, China has been trying hard to
catch up in numbers as well as in technology in the development of her naval forces. While
she is still far behind the U.S.’s naval superiority, China is rapidly bringing
her navy to within 10 to 15 years of reaching parity with the U.S.
But China’s naval
build-up is not limited to building more warships, submarines, and aircraft
carriers. She needs logistical supply centers spread around the
world to make sure that her naval vessels can be replenished and re-armed
without going back to China.
Since 2012 and under the
leadership of President Xi Jinping, China has embarked on projecting power
beyond her shallow offshore waters into the deep blue waters of the Pacific
Ocean. Indeed, in 2017 China opened her first overseas military base
in Djibouti. She calls it “logistical supply
center.” With the capability to sustain 10,000 troops and warships
in Djibouti next to the U.S. strategic base at Camp Lemonnier, China has
established a strategic presence more than 9,000 miles from home.
And closer to home,
China has reclaimed seven reefs and islets in the Spratly archipelago and built
artificial islands over them. Three were militarized to accommodate
aircraft, warships, missiles, and troops. These bases are just a
hundred miles away from the Philippines, which has territorial jurisdiction
over the Spratly Islands that are within her 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone
(EEZ).
Debt-trap diplomacy
China is using the One
Belt, One Road (OBOR) Initiative to gain economic foothold in various seaports
in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea such as the Hambantota Port in Sri
Lanka and the Gwadar Port in Pakistan. Recently, China took a
99-year lease on Hambantota due to Sri Lanka’s inability to repay her huge loan
from China’s debt trap. Pakistan has also fallen into China’s
debt-trap diplomacy and pretty soon would take a 99-year possession of Gwadar.
Another project that
would soon follow the fate of Sri Lanka is Kenya. If Kenya fails to
begin repayment of a $2.3 billion loan for Kenya Railways Corporation (KRC),
China would seize the Kilindini Harbor, the biggest port in East Africa, which
was the collateral for the Chinese loan.
A recent report said
that at least 16 countries are vulnerable to China's debt-trap diplomacy,
including Kenya, Pakistan, Zambia, Djibouti, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand,
Malaysia, Myanmar, Tonga, Micronesia, Vanuatu, and the Philippines.
South Pacific
Vanuatu, an idyllic
country consisting of a group of small islands in the South Pacific has also
fallen into China’s debt-trap diplomacy. The two countries are now
negotiating the establishment of a Djibouti-like “logistical supply
base.” In China’s playbook, this logistical supply center would
eventually be expanded to accommodate troops, aircraft, warships, and missiles
that can reach Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
Another country that
China is eyeing is Papua New Guinea (PNG), which is just north of
Australia. The two countries are currently negotiating the
possibility of a military base in PNG. It’s interesting to note that
during the early years of the Obama administration, PNG offered to host U.S.
naval and air bases for free! The U.S. declined the offer.
China’s attempt to
project power in the South Pacific is making Australia, United Kingdom, and
France nervous. But the U.S. seems unperturbed. The U.K.
and France still have some possessions in the South Pacific. And now
China is attempting to pitch tent in the neighborhood.
France is concerned
about China’s interest in the South Pacific. France considers
herself an Asia-Pacific nation because of her vital interests in the
region. Her territories include French Polynesia, New Caledonia, and
Wallis and Futuna Islands. Combine this to her territories in the Indian Ocean
(La Reunion, Mayotte, Kerguelen, etc.) that makes France an Indo-Pacific nation
as well. France has deployed a number of warships in South Pacific
to protect her territories.
South China Sea
Last year, UK, France,
and Australia joined the US in conducting freedom of navigation operations
(FONOPs) in the South China Sea to the consternation of
China. Recently, the U.K. announced the deployment of her newly
commissioned aircraft carrier, the HMS Queen Elizabeth, in the South China Sea,
which can carry two squadrons of the U.S.-built stealth F-35B supersonic
jets. What is interesting is that the deployment to the South China
Sea is officially a joint US/UK mission. The interoperability of the
US and UK naval forces in the South China Sea demonstrates the longstanding
military relationship between the two countries.
Another important
multi-lateral naval exercise is the Malabar naval exercise involving US, India,
and Japan’s warships, submarines, and aircraft that kicked off in the Bay of
Bengal. Australia wanted to participate as an observer but was not
included due to China’s objection. The first Malabar exercise took
place in 1994 as a bilateral exercise between the US and Indian
navies. A few years ago Japan joined Malabar exercises as a
permanent member..
But that’s not the end
of Australia’s effort to join her allies in joint naval
exercises. The last biennial Talisman Saber joint military exercise
between the US and Australia began in June 2017. It was aimed at
sending a message to both allies and potential foes, particularly
China. The exercise involved 33,000 US and Australian troops.
In another joint
exercise, the US Marine Corps and the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JSDF)
held their 13th annual Iron Fist Exercise last January 2018. The
extensive five-week long exercise held in Southern California.
In a multilateral
military exercise following the Iron Fist Exercise, Australia and Japan joined
the Philippines and the US in the 34th annual Balikatan exercises in Luzon,
Philippines.
There are several more
joint exercises, in which the US is involved, to wit: South Korea, Thailand,
Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Interestingly, the US has mutual
defense treaties with five of them, namely, Japan, South Korea, the
Philippines, Australia, and Thailand. In addition, the US has treaty
obligation to defend Taiwan from external attacks.
With all the joint
exercises that the US is involved in, she is basically on virtual “war footing”
all year round, ready to go to war in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea on
short notice. However, the U.S. doesn’t have presence in the South
Pacific, a region where America’s naval forces battled and defeated the
superior Japanese naval forces in World War II. It was the turning
point in the war. It’s sad that the South Pacific, rich in history,
could fall prey to the imperialistic expansion of China.
With China’s aggressive
effort to project power in the South Pacific, it won’t be long before she
establishes bases in Vanuatu, Tonga, Papua New Guinea, and other islands in the
region. The U.S. and her allies might wake up one day and find
themselves face to face with the enemy in the next flashpoint: South Pacific. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)