PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz
Last April, Russia and China had
joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea. It was too close for comfort to
Japan and South Korea. It didn’t take too long for the U.S., Japan, and
South Korea to react. A few days ago, last June 21-22, the USS George
Washington carrier strike group conducted a trilateral event with warships from
Japan and South Korea in the East China Sea.
It seems that the trilateral naval exercise was a reminder
to Russia and China that the U.S. and her Asian allies were prepared to meet a
new Russo-Sino alliance. Just two months earlier, Russia and China held
weeklong war games in the Yellow Sea involving more than 20 Russian and Chinese
warships. The Russian warships were based in Vladivostok.
It is interesting to note that last May, Sergei Karaganov,
an academic from Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, recommended that Russia
move her “economic capital” to Vladivostok — 4,000 miles to the Far East —
while keeping the political, defense, and diplomatic establishment in
Moscow. He said that the move would make Russia a part of the “rising
world.” However, in my opinion, the move wouldn’t just give economic
advantage to Russia but also provide her with a strategic military presence in
the Asia-Pacific region. Vladivostok’s close proximity to China and North
Korea would also give Russia an opportunity to create a new “axis of power”
with China and North Korea.
***
When Philippine President Benigno Aquino met with U.S.
President Barack Obama at the White House last June 8, they discussed security
and economic issues in the region including expanding intelligence-sharing and
cooperation on maritime security. During their press conference, Obama said
that the security and military cooperation with the Philippines “is a reminder
to everybody that the United States considers itself, and is, a Pacific
power.”
It makes one wonder if the recent military activities in the
region are leading to a new Cold War? If so, the Philippines’ strategic
location that’s sandwiched between the vast Pacific Ocean and the South China
Sea could put her near the epicenter should a new Cold War erupt. And
with all the realignment and rearmament that’s going on among the big powers
and their respective allies, the new Cold War could be as deadly as – if not
deadlier than — the old Cold War.
The question is: Is the Philippines ready for it? The
answer is a big “NO.” With two warships – a frigate and a cutter — and no
warplanes, the Philippines would be helpless in the event China invades
her. And there is no guarantee that the United States would automatically
come to her aid should the Philippines invoke their Mutual Defense
Treaty. However, with the recent standoff between China and the
Philippines at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines needs to open
her doors again to American military forces if she expects the U.S. to come to
her defense.
***
In my article, “Are
we losing the Karburo War?” (June
21, 2012), I wrote: “In
spite of the departure of U.S. military forces, the 1952 U.S.-Philippines
Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) remained in force. But many wondered, ‘How
could the U.S. come to the defense of the Philippines without any permanent
military bases to operate from?’
“In1998, then President Fidel V. Ramos successfully
negotiated the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the U.S. The VFA
provides for future military cooperation between the two allies including joint
military exercises. But critics said that the VFA would be used to get
around the 1987 Constitution’s prohibition of foreign military bases on
Philippine soil.”
***
On June 2, 2012, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta spoke
before the annual Shangri-La Dialogue conference in Singapore. He
announced that the U.S. is moving 60% of her naval forces to the Asia-Pacific
region by 2020 as part of a new strategy to increase U.S. presence in
Asia-Pacific. “We are stressing our effort to try to develop partnerships
with countries in this region, to develop their capabilities so that they can
better defend and secure themselves,” Panetta said. Under the new
strategy, the U.S. military aims to be smaller, more flexible and agile.
He also said that rotational deployments are preferred to permanent bases.
Last June 11, Admiral Cecil Haney, Commander of the U.S.
Navy’s Pacific Fleet, announced that the U.S. Navy would be deploying its most
advanced warships, submarines, and fighter jets in the Asia-Pacific, apparently
to counterbalance China’s modernization of her naval forces at “breakneck
speed.”
Indeed, China is in a frenzy to increase her naval
capability. She had acquired and retrofitted a Russian aircraft carrier,
which is now undergoing several sea trials. She is also building two
brand-new super aircraft carriers to be deployed to in the “String of Pearls,”
which refers to China’s sea lines of communications that runs through the
“choke points” — Strait of Mandab, Strait of Malacca, Strait of Hormuz, and
Strait of Lombok — all the way to Port Sudan in the Red Sea.
***
With the accelerated modernization of China’s naval forces,
it is expected that China would become a naval power in the Asia-Pacific region
by 2020. But U.S. is also building more warships including the super
aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, which is under construction, and a fleet
of stealth destroyers. With 11 aircraft carriers in the U.S. Navy, China
is not yet in a position to challenge the U.S. militarily but would be within a
decade.
Recently, Chinese Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo, director of Chinese
Navy’s Information Expert Committee, said that Chinese troops should go after
Philippine ships and fishermen who go near the Scarborough Shoal. And
that’s precisely what happened when it was reported in the news last June 25
that “a Chinese vessel last week rammed a Philippine fishing boat north of the
disputed Scarborough Shoal in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea),
killing a Filipino fisherman and leaving four others missing.” Was it
accidental?
***
Zhuo’s provocative remark raises the question: If
Chinese troops were deployed in the Scarborough Shoal and attacked Filipino
fishing boats, how would the Philippine government react? And by what
means could the Philippines stand up to China? Perhaps it’s about time
that the Philippines welcomes back the deployment of American forces within the
framework of the VFA. That may be the only option left; otherwise, the
Philippine government might as well kiss the Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly
islands good-bye.
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