Luzon to suffer severe power crisis in 2016: industry expert

By Dexter A. See

BAGUIO CITY – Luzon will suffer from severe power crisis in 2016 once no dependable power plant will be commissioned anytime which would be disastrous to the economic growth that it has gained over the past several years, a power industry expert said here last week.

Prof. Rowaldo R. del Mundo, associate professor of the University of the Philippines – National Engineering Center (UP-NEC), said Luzon is now experiencing first stage of power crisis because of the reported rotating brownouts in major generation plants and the simultaneous shutdown of major power plants which play a key role in sustaining the power supply of the grid.

 “If we encounter oneday of rotating brownout in a generation plant in a year, we are now in the first stage of power crisis. This year, we are expected to encounter 3 days of rotating brownouts in some power plants which would increase to ten days next year and thirty five days in 2016. By 2017, the projected rotating brownouts will be ninety two days,” del Mundo said.

Del Mundo was guest of honor and speaker during Friday’s Cordillera Administrative Region Power Forum headed by Benguet Electric Coop.

Del Mundo said simultaneous shutdown of the 3,000megawatt San Lorenzo and Sta. Rita power plants in Southern Luzon and the 1,200-megawatt coal-fired power plant in Sual- Pangasinan for emergency repairs could also be considered as initial stages of the expected occurrence of power crisis in Luzon.

He cited slim power reserves of Luzon that ranges from 600 megawatts to around 1,200 megawatts per day is also an indication that there is really a power crisis in Luzon because the power reserves are way below the industry requirement in order to sustain the sudden surge in power demand as a result of the influx of investments in the different parts of theisland.

 “Luzon has to have power reserves equivalent to 28 percent of the total power requirement to ensure that we will be spared from the possibility of having continuous rotating brownouts, especially in the coming years,” del Mundo added.

He claimed the huge requirement for power reserves will be a guarantee for buffer supply of the grid once dependable power plants will undergo emergency shutdown or scheduled preventive maintenance in order to keep the supply at a reliable level.

Currently, the power requirement of Luzon is more or less 9,000 megawatts per day but the available supply is around 9,800 to 10,000 megawatts.

According to him, what contributed to the impending power crisis in Luzon is the failure of the national government to commission a new power plant, except for the 600-megawatt clean coal power plant in Mariveles, Bataan, which was commissioned after the passage of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) in 2001.

 “It takes five years to commission a new power plant that is why we have to start the building of power plants now in order to mitigate the expected serious negative effects of power crisis in the coming years,” said del Mundo.

He added Luzon could suffer the current rotating brownouts in Mindanao which was 188 days per year since last year, thus, the government, power distribution companies and electric cooperatives should start working out the commissioning of additional power plants in order to stabilize the fragile situation of power in the grid.