PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz
It wasn’t too
long ago when President Barack Obama was the undisputed world leader since the
end of the Cold War in 1989; he reigned over the greatest empire the world has
ever known. But recently, he had become
too complacent Lording it over a unipolar world order, confident that the sun
will never set on Pax Americana.
But little did
Obama know that while he was basking in the glory of American exceptionalism, a
militaristic Russia was slowly rising from the ashes of the defunct Soviet
Union under the autocratic rule of Vladimir Putin, a former KGB spy of dubious
provenance and questionable morals.
Putin came to power in 1999 when then
President Boris Yeltsin appointed him as Prime Minister. On December 31, 1999, Yeltsin abruptly
resigned and Putin became Acting President.
He was elected President in 2000 and reelected in 2004. Constitutionally prohibited to run for a
third term, Putin stepped down. Dmitry
Medvedev was elected in 2008 and he appointed Putin as Prime Minister.
In 2008, Putin was termed out after serving
two terms. He made a comeback in 2012
when he was elected to a third term. It
was at that time that Putin had set his sights on the Soviet Union’s former
republics and satellite states in what he calls as the “near abroad.”
An opportunity for Putin to show his mettle
presented itself when Obama — in an apparent demonstration of weakness – did
not act when Syria crossed the “red line” he drew on Syria’s use of chemical
weapons against the Syrian rebels. By
failing to respond with the use of military force against Syria’s use of banned
chemical weapons, Obama sent the wrong message not only to Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad but also to the entire world, particularly to al-Assad’s
benefactor and protector, Vladimir Putin.
Putin saw Obama’s wishy-washy hesitancy to act as an opening to engage
him in geopolitical brinkmanship. And
thus far, Putin is ahead in the game.
Round 1
Their fight
began when Putin sent Russian soldiers — with no identifying insignia on their
uniforms — who came to be known as “little green men” – to Crimea. It didn’t take long for Putin to annex
Crimea, which stunned the U.S. and her NATO allies. However, the U.S. and NATO had a chance to
react with force to the Russian incursion – or as some say, “invasion” — but
instead they stood down and allowed Putin to grab Crimea.
This was a major
victory for Putin because he could now deploy land-based nuclear missiles as
well as missile-firing warships and submarines in the Black Sea that could
reach NATO’s southern flank from Turkey to the Balkans, Italy, Spain and
Portugal.
Russia’s Crimean
territorial grab diminished the U.S.’s credibility as the world’s superpower.
For the first time since the end of World War II, the U.S. failed to protect
her geopolitical interests since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 when the
Soviet Union attempted to deploy nuclear missiles 90 miles from U.S.
mainland.
Simply put, with
Putin breathing down NATO’s southern flank, it puts the 28-member Atlantic
alliance on notice that Russia would be a power – economically and militarily —
to be reckoned with in the Mediterranean Basin.
It did not then come as a surprise when it was
announced that Russia is holding bilateral negotiations with Greece, Cyprus,
and Egypt that could establish Russia’s military presence in the Mediterranean.
Right now,
Russia and Greece are in the midst of negotiating a financial bailout, which
could result in Greece getting out of NATO and the European Union (EU). If that happens, it would break NATO’s defenses
on her southern periphery.
Russia is also holding bilateral negotiations
with another EU member, Cyprus, which is having financial problems. Russia is offering financial aid; however,
she also wants to station air and naval assets on Cypriot ostensibly for
“humanitarian” reasons.
These Russian
bases would be located near the Akrotiri Air base where British personnel are
stationed to support ongoing operations in the Middle East, which makes one
wonder: What would Cyprus do in the
event Russia and NATO went to war? The specter of the tiny island of Cyprus
becoming one bloody – and possibly nuclear — battlefield should be a good
enough reason for Cyprus to reject Russian military presence on her
territory.
Meanwhile, not too far away, Egyptian
President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi gave Putin a “hero’s welcome” in Cairo. They discussed a slew of economic and
military deals including the purchase of MiG-29 fighter jets and attack
helicopters worth $3.5 billion.
But the irony of
this is that the U.S. had been sending billions in military aid to Egypt for
the past three decades! Last year, the
U.S.’s military aid to Egypt was $1.5 billion, which makes one wonder if the
U.S. were indirectly subsidizing Egypt’s arms deal with Russia?
Round 2
Last February 12, after a marathon 17-hour
summit of Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President François
Hollande, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Minsk, Belarus, they
agreed on a ceasefire and a number of measures to achieve peace in Ukraine. But no sooner had the ceasefire agreement
been signed than Russian tanks, missile systems, and troops crossed the border
into Ukraine.
Apparently,
Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko had played into Putin’s game. The ceasefire called for heavy weapons from
both sides to be withdrawn from a line drawn dividing the country into two
regions – the government-occupied region on the western side and the Donbas
region in the east controlled by the rebels.
They
agree to establish an “exclusion zone” – 200 kilometers long and 50-70
kilometers wide – separating the two sides that would be policed by observers
from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and a
“joint contact group” of Russian and Ukrainian military personnel. Heavy weapons would be withdrawn from the
exclusion zone; however, ceasefire agreement allowed armed combatants to stay
within their side of the exclusion zone, which is not unlike the demilitarized
zone (DMZ) that divided North and South Korea since 1953 when the Korean War
Armistice was signed.
But the way Putin played his game is that
whether the ceasefire would hold or not, he wins. A stalemate would result in a “frozen
conflict,” just like what happened in Georgia and Moldova when Putin sent
Russian “peacekeepers” – or occupation troops? — to preserve “peace” between
these countries and the self-proclaimed republics that broke away.
Evidently, Obama lost Round 2 because he had a
chance to take the bull by the horns when the Ukrainian government forces had
the upper hand in fighting the Donetsk and Lugansk separatists. But due to Obama’s refusal to send lethal
weapons to Ukraine to defend her territory, Poroshenko had to “surrender” the
Donbas region to the Russian-backed separatists.
Round 3
After
Ukraine, what is Putin up to next? There
are strong indications that Putin would try to reclaim the Soviet Union’s three
former Baltic republics – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – and force them to
join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan
formed as an economic union similar to the EU.
Interestingly, at the time the EEU was formed
in January 2015, Russia made a proposal to Europe: “Dump the U.S. and join the
Eurasian Economic Union.” While it may
sound ludicrous, the way Putin had been playing his game of “deceive and
conquer,” it may not be long before some European countries particularly those
near Russia’s border would consider joining EEU as a means of
self-preservation… unless the United States overcomes her fear of a resurgent
Russia — whose unpredictable leader Vladimir Putin is bent in reclaiming Mother
Russia’s glorious past – and use her might to stop Russian imperialism. But does Obama have the cojones to lead?
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