Presidential surveys

ON DISTANT SHORE

Val G. Abelgas

It may be too early for the results of the latest surveys on presidential candidate preference conducted by Pulse Asia and the Social Weather Station to predict the outcome of the May 2016 elections, but it certainly can influence some candidates’ decision on how to proceed with their candidacy.

With her surge to the top of the surveys, for example, it’s hard to imagine how Sen. Grace Poe could resist the opportunity to become the country’s president, a chance his father, actor Fernando Poe Jr., missed after losing in a highly questionable election in 2004 to Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

It’s now a matter of whether she would run as an independent, or standard bearer for either the Liberal Party (LP), the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), or the Nacionalista Party (NP), which just last week signified their “willingness” to support her if she decides to run.

The irony of all these is that it is the other presidential candidates themselves who contributed to Poe’s rapid ascent to the presidential ladder by inviting her to be their running mate, all of whom she declined. Their acknowledgment of Poe’s popularity and “winnability” opened the door for her to be considered for the presidency, instead of just the vice presidency.

It also helped that President Aquino met with her about her plans for 2016 before the period of the survey, and that Binay’s spokesperson, Rep. Toby Tiangco, made an issue of her citizenship, residency and her being a foundling.

In just two successive surveys, Poe had already overtaken erstwhile frontrunner Vice President JejomarBinay of the opposition United Nationalist Alliance (UNA).

In the Pulse Asia poll, conducted from May 30 to June 5, Poe was chosen by 30 percent of the 1, 200 respondents nationwide while Binay only had 22 percent.

Poe gained 16 percentage points from her 14 percent rating in the March 2015 Pulse Asia’s presidential preference survey. Binay fell by seven percentage points.

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte came in third with 15 percent. Interior Secretary Manuel “Mar” Roxas III, the presumptive standard-bearer of the ruling Liberal Party, was tied for fourth with former President and now Manila Mayor Joseph “Erap” Estrada as they registered 10 percent each.

They were followed by Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (6 percent), Senator Alan Peter Cayetano (2 percent) and former Senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson (2 percent).

In the SWS survey, which was released the day after the publication of the Pulse Asia poll, Poe was on top with 42% compared to Binay’s 34%. After them were the following: Roxas (21%), Duterte (20%), Estrada (7%), Lacson (2%), Escudero (4%), Defensor-Santiago (4%), Marcos (3%), and Cayetano (2%).

It must be stressed that unlike the Pulse Asia, which asked the survey participants who they would vote for if the presidential elections were held at the time of the survey, the SWS asked those polled to name three possible candidates they would consider to vote for president. On this score, the Pulse Asia would be more reliable.

It should be pointed out that Poe gained tremendously in both surveys – 16 percentage points in Pulse Asia and 11 points in SWS. Binay, on the other hand, lost seven points in Pulse Asia, but only two points in the SWS poll.

It’s also significant that in both surveys, Poe was also the top vote getter with a very huge lead over his close friend, Sen. ChizEscudero. This is probably because until now, she has not declared her intention to run for president in 2016 and that people are prepared to elect her either as president or vice president.

Although the attention was focused on Poe’s rapid rise, it should also be stressed that in both surveys, Duterte gained five points while Roxas gained six points. This tends to show that a four-way battle among Poe, Binay, Roxas and Duterte could be in the offing in 2016.

The surveys also showed that despite the various corruption charges and demolition job against Binay, he has held his base of loyal supporters, which the Pulse Asia survey put at 22 percent and the SWS poll at 34 percent. In a close four to five-way battle, these figures may be enough to win him the presidency. This loyal base was confirmed by another Pulse Asia survey released last Monday that showed Binay as the most approved and most trusted top government official amid all the allegations hurled at him. The approval rating of Binay jumped from 46 percent in March to 58 percent in June.

It must also be recalled that in 2010, Roxas consistently led Binay by around 30 points in vice presidential preference surveys, but still won convincingly when the Aquino sisters and other leaders of the Aquino coalition decided to support Binay.

Many such things can still happen between now and the October filing of candidacy and the May elections. That’s why the current surveys cannot accurately predict the outcome of the presidential elections.

However, it can certainly influence the actions of the candidates and the political parties. For example, because of their continued poor performance in the surveys, certain candidates like Lacson, Cayetano, Trillanes, Marcos and Santiago may just decide to aim for the vice presidency or the Senate.

Some parties, on the other hand, could realign with the party that would ultimately get the prize catch Poe for the presidency.

The surveys can also serve as guides for potential candidates to adjust where adjustments are needed. For example, Poe, Binay and Roxas are trailing Duterte in Mindanao but Estrada’s 16-point share in the region could be up for grabs since the former president would most probably stick to running for reelection as Manila mayor. Their strategists could focus on that 16-point share.

The surveys can also give candidates a clear idea of who would be the best running mate for them by taking into consideration the various strengths of possible vice presidential bets. For example, Duterte could benefit from a team-up with Marcos who is very strong in the so-called Solid North.

Surprisingly, both Poe and Binay are stronger in the Visayas than both Roxas and Duterte, who both hail from the region — Roxas in Capiz and Duterte in Leyte. That could only mean Roxas and Duterte has a lot of campaigning and organizing to do in the Visayas.

These early surveys should only serve as guides for candidates to make adjustments to their campaign strategies. The worst thing that could happen is that the surveys could cause a bandwagon effect and make the voters focus on a candidate’s popularity and “winnability” instead of their qualifications, integrity and capability of the candidates.

On this point, the proposal of University of the Philippines Professor Clarita Carlos — to ban the publication of surveys close to the elections, and to let pollsters limit disclosure of their findings to those who contracted their services — makes sense.(valabelgas@aol.com)