Is the Benham Rise hoax a self-fulfilling prophecy?

PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz

 Last October 2018, an article was posted on Facebook by a certain Mariz Cruz and it said: “We are the first sovereign state who did scientific research and completely mapped the Benham Rise, therefore in behalf of the People’s Republic of China, I, Wang Yi, Foreign Minister, claims the entire Eastern Philippine Sea and declare that Benham Rise as Chinese territory -- WANG YI.”

But no sooner had Mariz Cruz posted the Benham Rise claim than China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) branded it as a “hoax.”  By denying the claim, China said that there are no official documents, press releases or reports that support the claim.  Well, I guess that ends the speculation then.  If China says it’s a hoax, then it is a hoax.  

However, out of curiosity, I checked Cruz’s Facebook account.  Browsing through it, it became apparent that she is anti-China, anti-Duterte, anti-Marcos, and pro-Trillanes.  Well, that says it all.   It would seem that the hoax was meant to embarrass Duterte a month prior to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first visit to the Philippines.

Reading Wang Yi’s “manufactured statement,” it reveals that the first part of it is true, which is: “We are the first sovereign state who did scientific research and completely mapped the Benham Rise.”  But the rest of the statement is false, to wit: “Therefore in behalf of the People’s Republic of China, I, Wang Yi, Foreign Minister, claims the entire Eastern Philippine Sea and declare that Benham Rise as Chinese territory.”  It is hoax, to which it raises the question:  Could it be that at a future time, China would indeed claim the entire East Philippine Sea (EPS) or Philippine Sea?  Hmm…  After seriously pondering the question, I came to the conclusion that China would eventually claim the entire EPS based on a column I wrote five years ago.

China’s timetable

In that column, “Chinese Dream: Beyond the First Island Chain,” (December 1, 2013), I said: “In an article in the Want China Times that appeared on June 27, 2013, Admiral Liu Huaqing, the mastermind of China’s modern naval strategy, was quoted as saying in 1982 that it would be necessary for China to control the First and Second Island Chains by 2010 and 2020, respectively. ‘The PLA Navy must be ready to challenge US domination over the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean in 2040. If China is able to dominate the Second Island Chain seven years from now, the East China Sea will become the backyard of the PLA Navy,’ he said.
“But there is one thing that prevents China from fulfilling the ‘Chinese Dream’ and that is the United States’ intent to remain a Pacific power. And at the rate China’s neighbors are coalescing together to counter China’s aggression, she may have to find a friendlier and less threatening way of winning her neighbors’ goodwill and cooperation. Instead China is stoking fear among her neighbors in the same manner that Adolf Hitler stoked fear in Europe when Germany annexed Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland, which makes one wonder if history is repeating itself?”
Artificial Islands

While China failed to take control over the First Island Chain in 2010, she was able to do it when she reclaimed seven reefs in the Spratly archipelago and built and militarized artificial islands on them.  Today, at least three of them have airfields, deep harbors, radar installations, and missile batteries.  As China continues to improve fortification on these islands, her de facto control of the South China Sea (SCS) is now fait accompli.   

But the Philippines can stop China in an international court under the auspices of the United Nations.  As Acting Chief Justice Antonio Carpio had once said, there are several legal ways of enforcing the U.N.’s arbitral ruling that invalidated China’s nine-dash line claim in 2016.  The imaginary nine-dash line drawn around the perimeter of the SCS was the basis for China’s territorial claim to almost all of the SCS.  But Duterte set the ruling aside in July 2016 upon his assumption to the presidency to placate China in exchange for infrastructure loans to the Philippines.  

Capitulation

In a surprising move last November 15, 2018, Duterte announced at the Asean-India Informal Breakfast Summit in Singapore, “China is already in ‘possession’ of the disputed South China Sea.  It’s now in their hands.  So why do you have to create frictions, strong military activity that will prompt a response from China?”  

Needless to say, his announcement was directed at the U.S. and her treaty allies – Japan and Australia -- who have been holding joint naval exercises and freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the SCS.  Indeed, his admission that China is already in possession of the SCS is tantamount to abdication of the Philippines’ sovereignty rights over the disputed waters in the SCS.

In an apparent subservience to China, Duterte is worried of being dragged into a war in the SCS.  But doesn’t he know that if the U.S. goes to war against China in the SCS – or anywhere in the world for that matter – the Philippines is obligated to come to her defense by virtue of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT)?  By the same token, if China attacks the Philippines, she can invoke the MDT, which would obligate the U.S. to come to her defense.

Xi Jinping’s visit

On Nov. 20, 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the Philippines.  The country laid out a red-carpet welcome as top Philippine officials met him while a military brass band played.  

The two countries inked 29 deals, including a joint oil and gas exploration pact, which is the most controversial deal opposed by a majority of Filipinos.  But many believe that Xi’s two-day visit was to consolidate China's influence in the region.  

According to an expert in geopolitics, Xi’s first goal was to “move away from their territorial conflict in the SCS,” which is a diplomatic attempt to neutralize the five other claimants to the contested islands in the Spratlys.  

And with Duterte conceding the entire SCS, the territorial conflict between the two countries ceases to exist.  With that, the Philippines lost a big chunk of her territory without a shot being fired. It’s an appeasement akin to the Munich Appeasement in 1938.

Secondly, Xi was trying to “woo” the Philippines away from the U.S. and pull the country into China’s orbit and turn her into a vassal state.  Indeed, the 29 deals that the two countries signed are the icing on the cake, one of which is the main prize: a “joint exploration” for oil and gas.  

However, the oil and gas deal is not necessary simply because China could unilaterally explore any part of the SCS without the Philippines’ approval since Duterte had already relinquished his responsibility to protect the Philippines’ sovereign rights.  Besides, China has always claimed that the SCS is Chinese territory since ancient times.  But it seems that Xi’s gesture to “sign” a joint exploration agreement was intended to make his new “partner” feel good.   As they say it back home, “Consuelo de bobo lang yan.” [That’s only a consolation for idiots]  

Self-fulfilling prophecy

Now that the territorial disputes are deemed “resolved” by virtue of Duterte’s capitulation, the EPS is next on China’s crosshairs.  And if China follows Admiral Liu’s timetable, China would soon be poised to take control over the Second Island Chain, just two years away… unless the U.S. stops her.  

Could you imagine Chinese warships and nuclear-armed submarines deployed to the waters around the island of Guam, America’s doorstep in the Pacific?  

With America’s first line of defense, the First Island Chain, now under China’s control, the question is begged:  Could it be then that the Benham Rise hoax is a self-fulfilling prophecy?  Yes, the Benham Rise hoax today would be a reality in 2020 when China would attempt to take control of the East Philippine Sea.  

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)