PERRYSCOPE
Perry
Diaz
If China
attacked the United States, she had better knock her out in the first
strike. Otherwise, the U.S. would unleash 1,654 nuclear warheads on 792
deployed Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Submarine-launched
Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), B-52 bombers, and B-2 stealth
bombers. China has approximately 240 warheads and an undetermined
number of ICBMs. But who would fire the first
China had always stuck to
her “No First Use” policy. However, in January 2011, the
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) reportedly had indicated that it would consider
launching a preemptive nuclear strike “if the country finds itself faced
with a critical situation in a war with another nuclear state.” By
adopting a “First-strike” policy, China is changing the geopolitical
game.
In March 2013, in an apparent
reaction to China’s “First-strike” policy, the Obama administration sought to
create the “capability to launch a first strike against Russia and/or
China without fear of nuclear retaliation.” To accomplish this, the
U.S. military plans to have 1,500 to 1,800 sea- and air-based first-strike
cruise missiles by 2015 and 2,500 to 3,000 by 2020.
Many believe that to launch a
preemptive first-strike could lead to Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), a Cold
War doctrine in which a full-scale use of nuclear weapons of mass destruction
by two opposing sides would effectively “result in the complete, utter and
irrevocable annihilation of both the attacker and the
defender.”
But that doesn’t mean to say that a
conventional war could not erupt in the Asia-Pacific
region. Actually, it could happen anytime soon. North
Korea’s threat to launch ballistic missiles against the U.S., Japan, and South
Korea could spark a war that could presumably bring China to come to her
aid. And this is where the conflict could become a battle between
the world’s two economic powers: U.S. and China.
***
But like
any other war in modern times, oil -- or the absence of oil -- could determine
the outcome of the war.
During World War II, the Allies launched
precision bombing of oil fields and refineries in Germany, Austria, Romania,
Norway, and other German-occupied countries. The success of the
Allies’ “Oil Campaign” contributed to the weakening of Germany’s defenses. Thus,
when D-Day came, Germany’s vaunted panzer divisions were rendered
inutile.
China faces
a similar problem. She has less than 30 days of strategic oil
reserves, which could be reduced to 10 days in time of war. If the
flow of imported oil from the Middle East and Africa were blocked at the Strait
of Malacca, it would deprive China of 80% of her oil imports.
***
At the east
end of the Strait of Malacca, Singapore controls the “bottleneck” – the
narrowest point in the strait with a width of only 1.7 miles. And conveniently
located there is Changi Naval Base where Singapore maintains a fleet of
submarines, frigates, and missile gunboats.
Recently, President Barack Obama and
Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong met in Washington D.C. and
agreed on a plan to rotate deployments of U.S. Navy ships to Singapore as part
of Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” – rebalancing of forces by transferring
60% of the U.S.’s naval assets to the Asia-Pacific region by
2020.
***
The
backbone of the U.S.’s Asia-Pacific strategy is her military presence in Japan,
South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Philippines, and Australia. Of utmost
importance is the U.S.’s ability to block the chokepoint at the
Strait of
Malacca, which connects the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea.
With the supercarrier USS George
Washington strike group permanently based in Yokosuka, Japan, two other
supercarrier strike groups were recently deployed to the 7th Fleet, the USS
John C. Stennis strike group operating in the South China Sea and the USS Nimitz
strike group operating in the Western Pacific.
The three
strike groups have combined aircraft strength of more than 240 jet
fighters. At the west end of the Strait of Malacca, in the Indian
Ocean, the supercarrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower strike group is deployed.
To protect Guam from potential
missile attacks from North Korea, the U.S. is deploying a Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD) to Guam to strengthen the strategic
island’s defenses. Already deployed at Guam’s Anderson Air Force
Base is a squadron of 12 B-52 nuclear-armed bombers, two squadrons of the
advanced F-22 Raptor stealth jet fighters, and three nuclear attack
submarines.
And from
Japan to South Korea to Taiwan through nations in the South China Sea to India
and Afghanistan, the U.S. has deployed a ring of the anti-missile Aegis Combat
System and batteries of Patriot anti-ballistic missiles around China’s
periphery.
In terms of
military personnel, the U.S. Pacific Area Command (PACOM) -- which is
responsible for the Pacific and Indian Oceans -- has more than 320,000 American
troops under its command of which 85,000 are stationed in Japan and South
Korea. It’s interesting to note that two senior posts were assigned to
Australian officers, one of which is Deputy of PACOM
Intelligence.
Australia
appears to play an important role in the U.S.’s Asia-Pacific
strategy. In 2011, Australia agreed to host 250 to 2,500 American
Marines at Darwin, which is strategically positioned to control the Timor Sea,
a possible new route for China’s oil imports in the event the Strait of Malacca
and the Sunda Strait in Indonesia were blocked.
Obama
called the troop deployment to Australia, “necessary to maintain the
security architecture of the region.” “This will allow us to be able
to respond in a more timely fashion and to meet the demands of a lot of
partners in the region,” he added.
***
According
to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), almost a third of global
crude oil and over half of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through
the South China Sea each year. That makes the South China
Sea the most important energy trade route in the world.
It did not
then come as a surprise that China claims virtually all of the South China Sea
as an extension of her continental shelf; thus, her territory. But
five other countries also claim a good portion of South China Sea as their
200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The U.S.’s position is that
freedom of navigation should not be impeded in the South China Sea.
With no other source for oil, China
is planning to tap the oil-rich South China Sea. But the bad news is that
a recent EIA report said that while the South China Sea is rich in oil and gas,
they mostly reside in undisputed territory, close to each country’s
shores.
As for the
disputed regions of the South China Sea, the report said: “EIA estimates
the region around the Spratly Islands [and the Paracel Islands] to have
virtually no proved or probable oil reserves.” That is a major setback for
China.
Evidently,
China is not prepared militarily to go to war against the
U.S. Logistically, it would be a nightmare if China ran out of oil
in the midst of a war. And with all her neighbors – including
Vietnam – warming up to the U.S., China is seen as a bully who would grab her
neighbors’ land by brute force and intimidation.
China
should learn that getting along with her neighbors would earn her their
respect, not their enmity. She just can’t go about and say, “This is
mine! That is mine!” At the end of the day, China’s aggressive behavior would
hurt her image and credibility for a long time to come. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
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