The 2016 presidential derby begins

PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz

 The day before Election Day, the opposition United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) proclaimed Vice President Jejomar “Jojo” Binay as its candidate for President in 2016.  Now that’s what you call preemptory move against anyone who might be toying with the idea of running for president. 

At UNA’s final rally – “miting de avance” – in Tondo, Manila, last May 10, Binay was introduced as “the next President of the Philippines.”  The candidates took turns in addressing him as “President Binay.”  For some reason, it seems that everybody in the opposition is jumping into Binay’s bandwagon long before the 2016 presidential election began.  Indeed, as UNA campaign manager Toby Tiangco said, “Binay is still the man to beat for the presidency in 2016.”  If so, what’s Binay game plan?

In my article, “Unholy National Alliance” (April 18, 2012), I wrote: “And this brings to the fore the nagging question:  Why did Binay form UNA while the impeachment trial was ongoing?  He could have waited until July 2012 after a verdict [on Corona] would have been passed.  With six of the senator-judges running for re-election in 2013, five of whom might end up on UNA’s ‘Magic 12’ senatorial line-up, the timing of the unification effort is riddled in suspicion.   I think [former Senator Ernesto] Maceda opened a can of worms when he said ‘a vote to acquit Corona is a vote of support for Binay in 2016.’  And I’m sure that P-Noy has the political savvy to decipher Binay’s game plan.

But in Binay’s attempt to unify all the diverse political parties under his umbrella, he may be creating a political machine similar to the Lakas-Kampi-CMD (LKC) merger prior to the 2010 presidential elections.”

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Former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s creation of the largest political party since the time of Ferdinand Marcos turned out to be like Howard Hughes’ “Spruce Goose.” On it’s maiden test flight on November 2, 1947 with Hughes piloting it himself, the humongous airplane flew for only a mile at 70 feet above the water. It’s mediocre performance forced Hughes to abandon the project.”  And like the Spruce Goose, Gloria’s LKC broke apart by its sheer size.  And like Gloria’s LKC, Binay’s UNA broke apart in the 2013 mid-term elections with only three of his candidates winning while nine Team PNoy candidates won.

The question is: Would UNA survive and become a viable opposition coalition in the 2016 elections? While it may be too early to tell, one thing is certain: it will not be the same as the one that participated in the 2013 mid-term elections.  In 2016, there will be a new set of senatorial wannabes.  But because of UNA’s anemic performance in the 2013 elections, these wannabes might gravitate around the Liberal Party (LP) hoping that P-Noy and the LP standard bearer – whoever he or she might be? -- would include them on the administration slate.   

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Many believe that because of P-Noy’s popularity, he’d have a strong hand in filling the LP’s 2016 senatorial slate – including the presidential and vice presidential candidates -- with his own “people.”  The problem though is that he’d be a “lame duck” by then.  However, if he earns tons of political capital and amasses invaluable goodwill with the people in the next three years of his presidency, his endorsement in 2016 might translate to a virtual “command vote.”  If that were the case, he would become the ultimate kingmaker. 

But P-Noy’s problem is that the Liberal Party is perceived as a weak party and doesn’t have star powers of its own.  There are no heavyweights that the party could field against Binay.  Mar Roxas is probably the only presidentiable from the LP’s ranks.  But Roxas said that he was not interested in running for president in 2016. However, he might run if the LP could build a formidable organization capable of defeating the popular Binay.   P-Noy’s personal charisma is the only one that can match Binay’s star power. Unfortunately, P-Noy can no longer run for office. 

If Roxas were really firm in his decision not to seek the presidency, Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero could jump into the Liberal Party. Placing third behind Grace Poe and Sen. Loren Legarda in the just concluded mid-term elections, Chiz – who is an Independent – would be the LP’s best bet to field against Binay.  He played his cards right when he stuck with the LP Coalition as a guest candidate and distanced himself from Binay’s UNA who had put him on their slate as a common candidate.  But he was removed together with the two other common candidates, Grace Poe and Loren Legarda, from the UNA slate when the three didn’t appear in UNA campaign rallies because Team PNoy forced them to abandon UNA.

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It is interesting to note that from the start of the campaign season until Election Day, Loren held the Number One spot in all the surveys.  But on Election Day, Grace Poe – who is Independent -- sprinted to the Number One spot and Loren slid down to Number Two spot while Chiz moved down to Number Three Spot from the second spot.  What is intriguing is that the LP coalition’s guest candidates took the top three spots, two of who are Independents.  

Surprisingly, of the three Liberals handpicked by P-Noy – Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV, Jamby Madrigal, and Ramon Magsaysay Jr. – only Bam Aquino, P-Noy’s cousin, won.  A political neophyte with only his last name to his credit, Bam couldn’t have won on his own account.  With that kind of performance at the polls, it makes one wonder if the LP could attract winnable candidates in 2016?

In the past several months, there were talks about a possible entry of Kris Aquino into politics.  However, nobody could pinpoint what office she would be running for?  Governor? Representative? Senator?  How about Vice President?  Heck, she paid more taxes than any of the Chinoy taipans last year.  That would endear her to the poor masa.  Indeed, a Mar-Kris or Chiz-Kris tandem might just do the trick to craft a Liberal Party victory over a Binay-Jinggoy tandem or “Binggoy.”

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Of the 12 senators whose terms end in 2016, Juan Ponce Enrile is retiring and Miram Defensor Santiago might not run for reelection due to her pending appointment to the International Criminal Court while Bongbong is expected to run for president and Jinggoy Estrada is expected to run for vice president.  That leaves eight probable reelectionists in 2016: three Liberals (Franklin Drilon, Teofisto Guingona III, and Ralph Recto); two Lakas (Lito Lapid and Bong Revilla); one Nacionalista (Pia Cayetano); one Nationalist People’s Coalition (Tito Sotto); and one Independent (Sergio Osmena).  Except for the three Liberals, the other five reelectionists would most likely run as guest candidates of either the Liberal Party coalition or a Binay-led UNA.

It is very likely that Osmena and Sotto – who both have made praising post-election remarks about Binay -- would run under UNA while Cayetano could possibly run under Marcos’ Nacionalista Party or on the Liberal Party’s coalition slate.  Lapid and Revilla – who are allies of Gloria -- would most likely run under Binay’s UNA or Marcos’ coalition as guest candidates.

How about the presidentiables?  With Binay already declaring his intention to run for president and Roxas or Escudero running under the Liberal Party coalition and Marcos forming a third party, the 2016 presidential elections might turn out to be a battle royale among the country’s powerful dynasties. 

But in politics, strange things happen.  What if the Liberals and Nacionalistas joined forces in 2016 like they did in 2013?  Can it be within the realms of probability – or absurdity -- for Bongbong Marcos and Kris Aquino to team up?  Hmm…Like they say, “Anything goes in politics.”  Indeed. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)