PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz
No, it’s not a misprint. What
we’re talking about here is the presidential race in 2022. But while
the winner of the 2016 presidential election is still anybody’s guess, whoever
will be elected vice president in 2016 would be the next president in
2022. And here is the reason why?
In my
article, “Who doesn’t want to be vice president?” (August 28, 2015),
I said: “Whoever wins the vice presidency would be in a good position to
run for president in 2022. Statistics show that out of the 10
presidential elections since 1946 (excluding the presidential elections during
the martial law), five incumbent vice presidents ran for president in the next
presidential election and won. They were: Elpidio Quirino in 1948,
Carlos P. Garcia in 1953, Diosdado Macapagal in 1961, Joseph Estrada in 1998,
and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in 2004. But three other incumbent vice
presidents had opted not to run for president, to wit: Emmanuel Pelaez in 1965,
Salvador Laurel in 1992, and Noli de Castro in 2010.” I postulated
that based on these historical data, whoever is elected vice president in 2016
would win the presidency in 2022.
To date,
there are six candidates for vice president in 2016. However, there
are only four presidential candidates: Vice President Jejomar “Jojo” Binay,
Manuel “Mar” Roxas II, Sen. Mary Grace Sonora Poe-Llamanzares (more
commonly known as Grace Poe), and Davao City Mayor Rodrigo “Rody” Duterte.
Popularity
ratings
The latest
Social Weather Stations (SWS) polls show that three of the four presidential
candidates are in statistical tie: Poe at 26%, Binay at 24%, and Roxas at
20%. The Pulse Asia shows Poe at 26%, Roxas at 20%, and Binay
at 19%. Duterte – considered the “dark horse” in the race – has
ratings of 11% (SWS) and 16% (Pulse Asia).
But Grace
Poe’s citizenship is being challenged before the Senate Electoral Tribunal
(SET). If the SET rules that Poe is not a “natural-born” Filipino --
as constitutionally required for presidential candidates – then the citizenship
case could go to the Supreme Court for final resolution. But
regardless of whether Grace is deemed a natural-born Filipino or not, the
controversy surrounding her birth would haunt her during the campaign, which
could become a major distraction in convincing the electorate that she is fully
and unquestionably qualified to be president of the country. But
regardless whether the citizenship issue is laid to rest satisfactorily, Poe’s
opponents would use it to destroy her credibility and
character.
Indeed,
Grace’s citizenship problem smells like a rose to Binay, who was the
frontrunner in the presidential derby until Grace entered the
race. With his popularity ratings plummeting amidst a tsunami of
corruption and plunder charges filed against him, Binay is losing a lot of the
points he earned during his vice presidency in the past five
years. If Poe were disqualified, Binay could bounce back in the
race.
But it won’t
be that easy because Roxas would also benefit from a Poe withdrawal. With
Poe expected to lose points – or disqualified -- because of her citizenship
problem, Roxas would presumably take most of the points Poe would lose; thus,
outpacing Binay in the race. With no corruption scandals involving
Roxas and with Poe out of the race, Roxas would be in a good position to be
elected president in 2016.
Vice
presidential race
And this
brings to fore the question: Who would be elected vice
president? As of today, there are six vice presidential
candidates, four of who are in tandem with a presidential
candidate. The pairings are: The Liberal Party’s (LP)
standard bearer Roxas and vice presidential running mate Congresswoman
LeniRobredo; the United Nationalist Alliance’s (UNA) standard bearer Binay and
running mate Sen. Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan; Independent Grace Poe and running
mate Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero; and Duterte and running mate Sen. Alan Peter
Cayetano.
The other
two vice presidential candidates who aren’t paired with a presidential
candidate are Senators Antonio “Sonny” Trillanes IV and Ferdinand “Bongbong”
Marcos Jr. Although they’re both members of the Nacionalista Party
(NP), they will be running as independents. However, they are
expected to “attach” themselves to a presidential candidate by way of a
personal endorsement. Trillanes has already endorsed Poe, whose
popularity could benefit Trillanes by such association. But what if
Poe were disqualified? Then Trillanes will have to find another one to
endorse or he might just remain unattached, which would make him like
a “ronin,” asamurai with no master. The same is
true with Marcos who has yet to “attach” himself to a presidential candidate,
possibly Duterte.
Not too long
ago, Marcos said that he didn’t mind being Binay’s running mate. But
when Binay offered Marcoto be his running mate, Marcos
declined. He probably realized that it would be difficult for him be
in tandem with Binay, who had figured prominently in fighting Bongbong’s
father, the late strongman Ferdinand E. Marcos in the 1980s. It
would also be awkward for Bongbong to be Duterte’s running mate because Duterte
was associated with Cory Aquino’s revolutionary government in the aftermath of
the People Power Revolution that toppled the Marcos regime. Cory
appointed Duterte as officer in charge (OIC) of Davao City during her
presidency. However, it’s interesting to note that before Bongbong
declared his candidacy for vice president, he traveled to Davao City and had a
meeting with Duterte.
With four
vice presidential candidates each in tandem with a presidential candidate, and
two ronins, that would make an interesting mix of relatively young,
strong-minded, and ambitious individuals, each having a distinct leadership
style and an agenda on how to rule an overpopulated country that has yet to
come of age.
Who would it
be?
The winner
will be taking over a vice presidency that is more than just glorified go-fer
for the president. He or she can use the office of vice
president as training ground for the presidency.
As I have
postulated earlier, whoever wins the vice presidency in 2016 would be the next
president in 2022, which begs the question: Of the six vice presidential
candidates in 2016 – Robredo, Escudero, Trillanes, Cayetano, Marcos, and
Honasan -- who wouldn’t want to run for president in 2022 if he or she were
elected vice president in 2016? What I am seeing in my crystal ball
is that all of them, with the exception of Honasan, will run for president in
2022. But Honasan, who might not have any inclination to seek the presidency
at this time, might have a change of heart midway through his term in 2019 and
decide to run for president in 2022. Once he tastes power, he
can get used to it. Indeed, power is aphrodisiac: you taste it once;
you’d want more… and more.
With all six
vice presidential harboring a desire to seek the presidency in 2022, you’d
expect each and every one of them to use all resources they have at their
disposal to win – by all means -- the vice presidency in 2016. It
would be shooting two birds with one stone; whomever we elect vice president in
2016, we’re also electing president in 2022.
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