Is Pax Americana coming to an end?

PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989, the Cold War ended too.  Vladimir Putin was then a colonel in the KGB, the Soviet Union’s spy agency.  He was stationed in East Germany, which then dissolved and reunified with West Germany.  

In April 2005, Putin told the Russian parliament: ““First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century. As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.”   

 After the Cold War, the U.S. became the sole superpower.  America had her way – the undisputed master of the world.  However, Russia kept her nuclear arsenal to keep America at bay.  But then president George W. Bush gave Putin, the new president of Russia, a pass.  And while the detante was going on, Putin slowly rebuilt Russia’s military strength.  

Ukraine crisis

In 2014, Russian forces invaded Ukraine and waged a bloody war against Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.  Russia also sent special forces to the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. The pro-Russian Crimeans organized an illegitimate referendum to join Russia.  

In March 2014, Russia formally annexed Crimea, which was denounced by the U.S. and her NATO allies.  However, NATO did not do anything to prevent Russia’s annexation of Crimea.  The U.S. imposed economic sanctions against Russia but beyond that did nothing to reverse the situation in Ukraine.  

In retrospect, many blamed then president Barack Obama for allowing Russia’s takeover of Crimea.  But what could Obama and his NATO allies have done otherwise? Invade Crimea or send NATO forces to east Ukraine?  Ukraine’s president Petro Poroshenko went to the U.S. and pleaded Obama to send weapons to Ukraine but Obama did not respond.  Instead the U.S. sent $53 million worth of non-lethal aid such as counter-mortar detection units, body armor, binoculars, small boats, blankets and other gear for Ukraine’s security forces and border guards.  

In a speech to the U.S. Congress, Poroshenko said, “Please understand me correctly. Blankets, night-vision goggles are also important. But one cannot win the war with blankets.”

He added: “Even more, we cannot keep the peace with a blanket.”  Drawing cheers from the lawmakers who want to arm the former Soviet state, Poroshenko declared his forces “need more military equipment, both lethal and non-lethal, urgently need.”

 Enter Trump and Zelensky

Five years later, President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky got embroiled in scandal that threatened Trump with impeachment.  At issue is the nearly $400 million in security aid that the U.S. Congress has approved for Ukraine.  However, Trump ordered the aid withheld until certain conditions are met.

Twelve government witnesses have testified that the security assistance, and a promised Zelensky visit to the White House, were held hostage to a demand for a public pledge by Zelensky that Ukraine would investigate 2020 Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden and his son Hunter.  The controversial arrangement has become to be known as the quid pro quo deal, which according to the Democrats on the House impeachment inquiry hearing, was tantamount to bribery and extortion, which are impeachable offenses.  The House committee on impeachment inquiry had just finished its public hearing.   

 The war in Ukraine and the scandal involving Trump is taking a heavy toll on him and his presidency.  It seems that his mishaps and miscalculations have diminished America’s geopolitical standing vis a vis Russia, China, South Korea, North Korea, Turkey, Syria, Iran, NATO and others.  

Leading the pack is Russia who has in the past two years gained substantial influence in world affairs.  Vladimir Putin, the foxy Russian master spy has outsmarted Trump every which way Trump goes.  Putin is now the dominant force in the Middle East, winning to his side Turkey, Syria, Iran.  

After Trump withdrew American forces from Syria, ISIS is growing with at least 50,000 armed men in Syria and Iraq.  Russia filled the void created by Trump’s retrenchment in Syria.  Russian tanks have taken over the territory abandoned by the Americans.  Now, they’re patrolling a huge slice of the Turkey-Syria border.  Russia is now the preeminent power in the Middle East.  And she did it without firing a single shot.  

Trade war

Trump is also waging a trade war with China.  As a result, U.S. agriculture is suffering from low exports.  Trump has to bail the farmers to the tune of $28 billion and counting.  It is not fully offsetting the loss of Chinese purchases and markets for U.S. soybeans, pork, and other agricultural products.

U.S. manufacturing fell deeper into a contraction or technical recession in the first six months of the year, and it appears to be getting worse, which could spill over into the rest of the U.S. economy.   

Korean Peninsula

Meanwhile, all is not well on the Korean Peninsula.  The 66-year old U.S.-South Korea alliance is eroding.  When Trump increased the defense burden-sharing cost for stationing 28,500 U.S. forces in South Korea to $5 billion a year, an increase of 500% over last year’s cost, it alarmed the South Koreans. 

South Korea isn’t happy by Trump’s exorbitant charges.  If Trump doesn’t change the amount, it could lead to withdrawal of U.S. forces in the peninsula at a time when North Korea nuclear threat is increasing.  And there is no indication that North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un would dismantle his nuclear warheads.

The question is:  If U.S. forces withdraw from South Korea, what is going to happen to the 50,000 U.S. forces in Japan?  Will Trump ask Japan to pay for the stationing of American personnel in Japan, which is quite substantial?  

Withdrawal from South Korea and Japan amounts to the U.S. effectively abandoning Asia. Which makes one wonder: What will Japan do to protect her territory from Chinese threat?  Well, Japan has an ace up her sleeves:  Rokkasho Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing Facility has an annual capacity of 800 tons of uranium and 8 tons of plutonium, which are produced by reprocessing spent nuclear fuel.  

Although reprocessing spent nuclear fuel for civilian nuclear plants, is the primary goal, they can also provide the essential fissile material for nuclear weapons.  And surely, Japan is keenly aware of this capability, which she can do to provide her own nuclear umbrella in the event that the U.S. decides to withdraw from Asia.

Cuban missile crisis redux

Last February, a repeat of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis was imminent when Putin said that Russia is militarily ready for a Cuban Missile-style crisis if the U.S. wanted one and threatened to place hypersonic nuclear missiles on ships or submarines near U.S. territorial waters. 

The Cuban Missile Crisis erupted in 1962 when Moscow responded to a U.S. missile deployment in Turkey by sending ballistic missiles to Cuba, sparking a standoff that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. 

Half century later, tensions are rising again over fears that the U.S. might deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe.

The crux of the matter is the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which both sides are accusing the other of violating. 

The INF pact bans Russia and the U.S. from stationing short- and intermediate-range land-based missiles in Europe. Washington announced on Feb. 1 it will withdraw from the treaty in six months unless Moscow ends its alleged violations. 

Putin said he does not want an arms race but would have no choice but to act if Washington deployed new missiles in Europe, some of which he says could strike Moscow within 10 to 12 minutes. 

Putin said Russia could strike the U.S. faster than U.S. missiles deployed in Europe could hit Moscow because the flight time would be shorter.  

Obviously, Putin was bluffing.  However, Russia does have the capability to strike the U.S. if Trump calls his bluff.  For one thing, the U.S. doesn’t have intermediate-range missiles; however, she can develop them since the U.S. has the technology.

But the problem is that Trump doesn’t have what it takes to confront Putin.  Simply put, he’s scared of Putin.  Trump is a bluffer and he knows that Putin has a better hand to play.  With America’s allies jumping ship, nobody is left to defend the U.S. in the event of war.  

Indeed, America is under siege right now.  Is Pax Americana coming to an end?

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)