PERRYSCOPE
By Perry Diaz
By Perry Diaz
Nobody expected that the first US-China high-level meeting in Anchorage, Alaska would lead to an open adversarial situation.
Facing each other, the two groups seemed to suggest that
the two superpowers were locked in a new Cold War in a tumultuous start sans
the usual diplomatic courtesies that happen when diplomats meet for the first
time. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security
Advisor Jake Sullivan and their counterparts Wang Yi and Yang Jiechi took
uncompromising positions for the whole world to see. After both sides
displayed a belligerent and uncompromising stance, they seemed to have reached
some minor concessions without any radical change in China’s political system
or foreign policy.
The basic problem with
US-China relations has always been China’s totalitarian society against
America’s democratic foundation. It’s the same problem that the US
had during the First Cold War when the US was trying to stop Soviet
expansionism. Now, the US is trying to contain China’s expansionist
moves around the world. It’s the same playbook with different
adversaries.
First Cold War
During the First Cold
War, which began in 1947 with the implementation of the Truman Doctrine --
America’s foreign policy goal of containing Soviet geopolitical expansion – and
ended in 1991 with the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
This led to the
creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949 among the US,
United Kingdom, France, and 11 other European countries. They agreed
that an armed attack against any of them would be considered an attack against
them all. Later on, Greece and Turkey joined NATO. After
the collapse of the Soviet Union, the 10 former Warsaw Pact members joined NATO
in 1997. Eventually the alliance expanded to 30 members, the largest military
alliance in the history of the world.
It must be remembered
that back in 1960, the late Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev told the United
Nations General Assembly, “Socialism is replacing capitalism.” Sixty years
later, Chinese President Xi Jinping said, “The East is rising, while the West
is in decline.” Evidently, Xi believes in it, which gives him a
false sense of security that could lead to US-China military confrontation
knowing that China would take advantage of any demonstration of weakness on the
part of the US.
Cuban missile crisis
This reminds me of the
Cuban missile crisis in 1962 when war between the US and the Soviet Union
almost broke out when the Soviet Union attempted to bring Soviet nuclear
missiles to Cuba. When President Kennedy found out about it, he
directed a blockade of the Russian ships. For 13 days, the world
watched the standoff in the Caribbean Sea.
Finally, Khrushchev
backed down and ordered the ships withdrawn. In 1964, the Kremlin
stripped him from power for his recklessness that led to the Soviets’
embarrassment during the Cuban missile crisis.
The ascendancy of Biden to the presidency changed the dynamics in US-China
relations, which has reached a boiling point with China’s increasingly
aggressive posture against Taiwan, which she claims as a province of
China. She warned the US to stay away from Taiwan or face the
consequences. But the US has made it clear that she won’t sit by and
abandon a nation that she has formally committed to support and protect.
In the waning days of
the Trump administration, an arms deal was sent to Congress for
approval. Beijing claimed that the weapons are offensive, which
could be used to attack the Chinese forces’ assembly area on the mainland coast
before departure or their vessels while crossing the Taiwan Strait in the event
China decides to invade Taiwan. China is angered by the deal saying
it “seriously damages China’s sovereignty and security” and threatened to
retaliate. The US is obligated by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to provide
Taiwan with the means for defense, hence the series of weapons deal that the
two countries had inked in the past that included 66 F-16 fighter jets worth $8
billion, the largest weapons sale in recent history.
Chinese Dream
But the Taiwan
question is just the tip of the iceberg. China has always been
jealous of American superiority. When Xi Jinping came to power in
2012, he envisioned the “Chinese Dream” as the “great rejuvenation of the
Chinese nation." It is described as achieving the material goal
of China becoming a “moderately well-off society” by 2021, and the
modernization goal of China becoming fully developed nation by 2049, the 100th
anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. So far China is on track.
The rapid
deterioration in US-China relations has taken many by
surprise. US-China rivalry has always been moderated by the need to
work together on economic, financial, and geopolitical issues. But
their relationship has gone awry due to recriminations over the coronavirus
pandemic, which has exposed the depth of their mutual mistrust.
China thinks the US is
bent on containing China to prolong the declining power of the US while denying
China her rightful place in the sun. Meanwhile, the US has
increasingly believed that China is threatening US security interests; thus,
undermining her prosperity, interfering in her democracy, and challenging her
values. Didn’t we go through this same exercise during the US-Soviet
Union rivalry?
World dominion
But world dominion,
which has always been communist China’s global ambition, is hampered by the
existence of the US, which China is trying to replace as the sole
superpower. But the US is hard to replace. Its democratic
foundation is solidly unshakable, whereas, China’s ruling body has to impose a
communist and totalitarian rule over her 1.3 billion people. Simply
put, democratization of the Chinese society is hard – if not impossible – to
accomplish because of the corrupt and godless ruling
class. Eventually, China would find herself in the same situation as
the Soviet Union, which has brought her own downfall by incessant internal
power struggle.
Another factor that
has detrimental effect on Chinese military power is that China’s navy –
although far more warships than the US – is inferior to the US simply because
the US has more experience in actual naval warfare than
China. Besides, American naval weaponry is far better in
technology.
A few years ago, Rear
Admiral Luo Yuan, a supporter of communist orthodoxy and rabidly nationalist,
anti-American, and anti-Western, said that the People’s Liberation Army Navy
(PLAN) is the weakest link in the Chinese armed forces. But what
surprised – and shocked -- his audience was his statement, “Although my
country’s military strength has improved significantly in recent years, there
is still a clear gap between China and the United States and Russia. Although
our country is recognized by all countries in the world in terms of the army,
our country is far inferior to the United States and Russia in terms of the
navy.”
US-China naval
confrontation
Last April 9, the USS
Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island Amphibious
Ready Group with the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit – ready for action --
sailed to the South China Sea to lend support to the beleaguered Philippine
Navy, which was sent by the Philippine government to monitor the 220 Chinese
vessels that were parked off the Julian Felipe (Whitsun) Reef, which is within
the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
By the time the
combined US Navy and Marine Corps team reached the vicinity of Julian Felipe
Reef, only 10 of the Chinese vessels remained. Apparently, the
Chinese militia force ran off to avoid confrontation with the Americans.
Rear Adm. Doug
Verissimo, commander of Carrier Strike Group Nine, said in a statement, “The
combined Navy and Marine Corps team has been a stabilizing force in this region
for more than a century and will continue to support all who share in the
collective vision of peace, stability, and freedom of the
seas.” Touché!
Late last month,
Secretary of State Blinken affirmed the U.S. commitment to defending the
Philippines if she was attacked. He issued a statement, saying, “The
United States stands with our ally, the Philippines, in the face of the
[People’s Republic of China]’s maritime militia amassing at [Whitsun
Reef]. We will always stand by our allies and stand up for the
rules-based international order.”
Many geopolitical
experts believe that the South China Sea is where the next global conflict is
going to be. For as long as China claims the South China Sea as her
territory, there would always be territorial disputes among the six claimants –
the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and China. And
with the US affirming her commitment to defend the Philippines if attacked, the
region could spark a shooting war.
Are we seeing the
start of a Biden Doctrine, which is: To contain Chinese geopolitical
expansion? With that, it would seem that a Second Cold War looms
ahead. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
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