Unorthodox diplomacy

 PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz

It’s bad enough when two colorful senators throw insults at one another but when it leads to an international crisis – involving the president no less – it gets ugly… very, very ugly.  Yes, no less than the indomitable Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile is involved in the “word war” at one end.  At the other end is the enigmatic Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, who made a name for himself when he ran for senator without spending a minute outside his military detention cell… and won!

It all began last September 19 when Trillanes delivered a privilege speech attacking Enrile – calling him Gloria’s lackey — for pushing for the division of Camarines Sur province for the benefit of Gloria’s son, incumbent Rep. Diosdado Arroyo.  Enrile was enraged and took the podium.  However, instead of addressing the Camarines Sur issue, he exposed Trillanes of “meddling in foreign affairs.” He referred to a news report that Trillanes accused Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario of sabotaging his efforts as President Benigno “P-Noy” Aquino III’s “back channel negotiator” to work out a diplomatic solution to the Philippine-China standoff over the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).

Based on purported notes he got from Ambassador Sonia Brady, Enrile accused Trillanes of secretly meeting with Chinese officials 16 times and, among other things, made questionable arrangements with the Chinese.  He called Trillanes a “coward,” a “fraud,” and a “fifth columnist” (During the Spanish Civil War, a clandestine group known as the “Fifth Column” infiltrated Madrid in support of the rebels).  In effect, Enrile accused Trillanes of “treason.”

Pretty soon, the Camarines Sur issue was forgotten and Trillanes ended up fighting for his political life.  He defended himself claiming that Executive Secretary Paquito Ochoa Jr. asked him to serve as P-Noy’s “backchannel negotiator.”  But Malacañang denied it.  Well, that was then.

Two days later, Malacañang’s tune changed.  P-Noy confirmed that Trillanes was indeed his “backchannel negotiator” with China. He said that he did so only after Trillanes called him from China and told him that the Chinese asked him to act as P-Noy’s “backchannel negotiator.”

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But why did P-Noy allow the Chinese to handpick Trillanes as his “backchannel negotiator”?  And to complicate the matter further, Del Rosario was not informed of Trillanes’ appointment.  But it turned out that Del Rosario had his own “backchannel negotiator” – his friend and close business associate Manny V. Pangilinan.  It was a three-ring circus!

It didn’t take long for the fireworks to start.  Trillanes called Del Rosario a “war freak” and a “traitor.”  He also blamed Pangilinan for siding with Del Rosario who wants to enter into a joint venture with state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) for oil and gas exploration at Recto Bank (Reed Bank).  Pangilinan called Trillanes a “liar.”  However, Pangilinan – who had a meeting with CNOOC officials in China last May — would benefit from such venture because his Forum Energy owns a majority of Service Contract No. 72, which covers the oil and gas exploration at Recto Bank.

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In my opinion, P-Noy shouldn’t have appointed Trillanes to secretly negotiate with the Chinese for several reasons: (1) If it’s true that China handpicked Trillanes, that would have a “conflict of interest” connotation and therefore P-Noy should have rejected it; (2) Trillanes does not have any foreign policy experience; (3) P-Noy should rely on Foreign Affairs Secretary Del Rosario to handle the situation or replace him if he had lost confidence in Del Rosario; and (4) It simply doesn’t make any good sense.

The question is: What was Trillanes doing in Beijing when he called P-Noy to offer to negotiate with the Chinese?  Was he in Beijing to negotiate a business transaction for himself or for a private group?  Enrile stoked the fire when he claimed that Trillanes established contacts with Chinese officials in Beijing with the help of a Chinese military intelligence officer assigned in the Chinese embassy in the Philippines.

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A day after the Trillanes-Enrile confrontation, P-Noy appointed Mar Roxas, the new Secretary of the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG), as his “special envoy” to China to meet with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who is slated to take over the rein of government next month.  However, Malacañang explained that Roxas’ official role was as head of delegation to the 2012 Forum on China-Asean Free Trade Area in Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in China.

At the Ninth China-Asean Business and Investment Summit, which was held concurrently to the trade expo, Xi said in a speech that China is committed to solving territorial disputes peacefully. However, he emphasized that China will defend the security of her “national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

It is interesting to note that on July 24, 2012, China established the prefecture-level government in Sansha City located in Woody Island, which will administer all of the Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, and Macclesfield Bank.  Sansha is the smallest prefecture-level city by both population and land area (13 square kilometers or five square miles) but the largest by water area with a claimed two million square kilometers (772,000 square miles).  In addition to the city government, China is also going to establish a military garrison in Sansha to protect her “territory and sovereignty over the entire South China Sea.”

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Given these complexities and variables, it’s going to be very tough negotiating with China because of economic and military disparities.  Simply put, with a navy without warships and an air force without warplanes, the Philippines cannot afford – nor can she win — a war with China.  And P-Noy knows that the United States would not come to the aid of the Philippines if war broke out with China on their territorial dispute over the Spratly islands and the Scarborough Shoal.  The United States’ position is that these are not covered in their Mutual Defense Treaty.

But in the case of the China-Japan territorial dispute over the Diaoyu (Senkaku to Japan) islands, it was reported in the news that U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that the Japan Defense Treaty covers these islands.  However, he urged China and Japan to resolve their dispute by way of diplomacy.

Incidentally, the United States Seventh Fleet’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington, which heads the forward-deployed Carrier Strike Group Five, is permanently based in Yokosuka, Japan.  She is within striking distance to the disputed islands.

With no military capability of her own, diplomacy maybe the Philippines’ only option to resolve her territorial dispute with China.  But P-Noy cannot pursue a diplomatic solution haphazardly by appointing an inexperienced “backchannel negotiator.”  That’s unorthodox diplomacy and it is dangerous especially when dealing with a superpower like China.

As for Enrile, his scathing response to Trillanes’ privilege speech – which had nothing to do with the territorial dispute with China – opened a can of worms.  As nationally elected senators, they should have been more circumspect in dealing with sensitive issues.  Two wrongs don’t make a right.

(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)