China raises the ante

PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz

Consistent with her “salami-slicing” strategy, China published a new “10-dash line” map, which is one dash longer than the “nine-dash line” map published less than a year ago.   That extra “dash” is placed near Taiwan’s eastern shoreline.

With the tongue-shaped 10-dash line, all the countries surrounding the South China Sea (SCS) would only extend 12 miles out to the demarcation line of what China claims to be her “national boundary.”  

China’s position is that these countries are not entitled to their 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) as mandated by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) -- to which China is a signatory -- because China claims “indisputable sovereignty” over the entire area.

In a major move last week, China announced that she has unified her coast guard into one organization that includes the maritime surveillance fleet, maritime police, and fisheries law enforcement.  Prior to the unification, these vessels were not allowed to be equipped with weapons.  Now, they are.   

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The 10 ASEAN members, four of whom have overlapping claims on the Spratly Islands, are trying to convince China into agreeing to a Code of Conduct (COC) in the SCS.  At the ASEAN forum last month in Brunei, China agreed to meet with the ASEAN members in September to develop rules to avoid conflict in the SCS.

Last week, U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden, who was visiting India and Singapore, pushed China to negotiate a COC with ASEAN members.  The question is: How far would China go along in developing a COC without giving up her sovereignty over the SCS?  Which makes one wonder if China would offer to agree to a COC in exchange for the other claimants to waive their claims on all or part of the SCS.

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Indeed, that’s what Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “China Dream” is all about.  It must be remembered that Xi is first and foremost a pure Maoist. And he’d probably want to realize the emergence of China as the world’s number one superpower.  

During the summit meeting between Xi and President Barack Obama in California last June, Xi told the media that he and Obama were meeting “to chart the future of China-US relations and draw a blueprint for this relationship.” Then he added: “The vast Pacific Ocean has enough space for two large countries like the United States and China.”   

Last June 27, 2013, an intriguing article appeared in the Want China Times titled, “China to take Second Island Chain by 2020: analyst.”  It says:  “Within seven years, China will be able to control the Second Island Chain — a series of island groups that runs north to south from the Japanese archipelago to the Bonin and Marshall islands — now that the PLA Navy commands the nation’s first aircraft carrier, according to the Hangzhou-based Qianjiang Evening News.” 

The Second Island Chain runs through Guam, a U.S. territory.  It delineates what is referred to as the Western Pacific from the rest of the Pacific.  Simply put, if China succeeded in controlling the Second Island Chain, she would be right at America’s doorsteps!

The article also said: “In 1982, Admiral Liu Huaqing, the former commander of the PLA Navy and the mastermind of China’s modern naval strategy, said that it would be necessary for China to control the First and Second Island Chains by 2010 and 2020. The PLA Navy must be ready to challenge US domination over the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean in 2040. If China is able to dominate the Second Island Chain seven years from now, the East China Sea will become the backyard of the PLA Navy.”

The First Island Chain runs from Japan’s southern tip through the Ryukyu string of islands, through Taiwan, through the Philippines’ main island of Luzon, and all along the western part of Borneo.  Interestingly, the First Island Chain runs parallel to the 10-dash line’s demarcation. 

If China succeeds in breaking through the First Island Chain and take control of the Second Island Chain, the entire Western Pacific waters would become “Lake Beijing.”  And in the middle of Lake Beijing is the Philippines, isolated from the rest of the world. 

But for as long as the countries in the First Island Chain  -- mainly Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines – are allied with the U.S., China would be blocked from gaining a foothold in the Pacific.  

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It did not then come as a surprise that the Obama administration has implemented the so-called “Pivot to Asia” that would shift 60% of the U.S.’s naval and air forces to the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR) by 2020 to counter a rising China.  Indeed, the past two years saw the strengthening of the U.S.’s strategic partnership with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, Thailand, and India; thus, forming an arc that would effectively contain China. 

With the deployment of the U.S. Seventh Fleet to the Western Pacific waters and 150,000 military personnel to Japan, South Korea, and Australia, China couldn’t break through the First Island Chain.  Recently, the Philippines announced to relocate major air force and navy forces to the former U.S. naval base at Subic Bay.  The Philippines is also negotiating an “access agreement” with the U.S. to allow the deployment of U.S. personnel, ships, and aircraft on a “temporary” and rotational basis; thus, allowing interoperability for joint operations of American and Philippine forces when the need arises.

Meanwhile, the former U.S. Clark Air Base is hosting an undetermined number of P3C Orion planes, the U.S.’s latest surveillance aircraft.  The Orions are conducting maritime patrol to monitor activities in the SCS. 

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A Chinese game called Weiqi (Go in Japanese), which means, “encircling game,” is a board game that originated in China 2,500 years ago.  There are two players in the game.  The rules are simple but rich in strategy.  Played with white and black pieces (“stones”), the object of the game is to use one’s stones to surround a larger total area of the board.  And whoever ends up with a larger area, wins.  

During a breakfast with reporters last July 29, Gen. Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, the U.S. Air Force chief of operations in the Pacific, said that the U.S. Air Force will deploy “fighters, tankers, and at some point in the future, maybe bombers on a rotational basis.” He also said that the Air Force will “dramatically expand its military presence across the Pacific this year, sending jets to Thailand, India, Singapore, and Australia.”  He also mentioned the possibility of using the bases at Cubi Point and Puerto Princesa in the Philippines and airfields in Indonesia and Malaysia.  By the looks of it, the U.S. is ahead in the Weiqi game.

But a series of bold moves by China is threatening the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.  With the new 10-dash line, China is raising the ante.  Is China’s hand strong or is she bluffing?  The U.S. is calling China’s bluff.(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)