Putin and Xi’s nutty world disorder
>> Monday, April 14, 2014
PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz
Perry Diaz
It’s probably fate that
brought Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping to the pinnacles of power in the world’s
two largest authoritarian regimes. And it’s probably delusional ambition
that had pushed them to the throes of nuclear conflagration. And it
is for these reasons that many countries – particularly those close by Russia
and China -- are distancing themselves from them lest they could be the next
victims of these marauding superpowers.
What is
ironic is that post-Soviet Russia and post-Mao China have gained their
economic, political, and military power through their economic association with
the world’s wealthiest developed nations, collectively known as the Group of
Seven (G7).
Originally
formed in 1975 as the Group of Six (G6) -- United States, United Kingdom,
France, West Germany, Italy, and Japan – it was expanded to G7 with the
inclusion of Canada the following year. In 1998, Russia was included and the
group came to be known as the Group of Eight (G8).
Interestingly,
the European Union is also represented within the G8 but could not host or
chair summit meetings. The G8’s heads of government meet once a year and
their finance ministers meet four times a year.
The
next meeting would have been held in Sochi, Russia in June 2014. However, due
to Russia’s invasion and subsequent annexation of Crimea, the G8 members sans
Russia held an emergency meeting last March 24 at The Hague, Netherlands, to discuss
the crisis in Crimea. The group then decided to expel Russia from G8;
thus, once again the group is known as G7. Russia’s expulsion infuriated
Putin.
***
After
Crimea was annexed, Putin’s move was to deploy tens of thousands of Russian
troops to the border of Ukraine. He also deployed troops to the borders of the
Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) as well as Finland.
Putin had
long dreamed of the grandeur of Mother Russia in the days of the czars.
Since his ascendancy to power in 2000, Putin had over the years developed an
agenda with the objective of recovering the political, economic, and
geostrategic assets that the Soviet Union lost when it collapsed in 1991.
He consistently pursued this goal, which had come to be known as the “Putin
Doctrine.” As part of his agenda, he pursued the formation of a
collective economic and political system known as the Eurasian Union (EAU),
which would rival the European Union (EU).
But the
problem with that is that most of the former communist East European states are
now members of NATO, to wit: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and
Slovenia. In 2008, Ukraine and Georgia applied for membership in NATO,
which was supported by the U.S. However, Germany, to placate Russia,
blocked their entry insisting that Ukraine and Georgia should go through a
Membership Action Plan. They were then promised that they would be
accepted at a latter date, which never came. Had NATO accepted them, NATO
would have been obligated to defend Crimea.
Meanwhile,
the neutral Nordic states, Sweden and Finland, have become fearful of Russian
invasion and occupation. Swedish Prime Minister Jan Björklund and Finnish
Prime Minister JyrkiKatainen reopened the debate about joining NATO.
Since they are members of EU, their entry to NATO would definitely be
welcomed.
The Baltic
and Nordic states are crucial to NATO’s geostrategic advantage over
Russia. Russia maintains two naval bases in the Baltic Sea.
One is in St. Petersburg in the Gulf of Finland, which flows into the Baltic
Sea. The other is in Kaliningrad in the Baltic Sea sandwiched between
Lithuania and Poland with no land connection to the rest of Russia.
If Sweden and Finland joined NATO, NATO would have total control of the Baltic
Sea including the Gulf of Finland, which would render Russia’s Baltic Fleet
virtually useless if hostilities broke out between Russia and NATO.
***
Meanwhile,
Putin’s new best friend, Xi Jinping, is busy plotting his next move to fulfill
his dream of restoring the glory of imperial China. To achieve his “China
Dream,” China must extend undisputed sovereignty over the East and South China
Seas and achieve total control of the First Island Chain, a line that extends
from Japan through Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia and ends in
Vietnam. Incidentally, the nine-dash line, which is the basis of China’s
claim of 90% of the South China Sea, runs parallel to the First Island
Chain.
But that is easier said than done.
If China attempts to grab the contested Senkaku Islands from Japan and the
Kalayaan Islands from the Philippines, she risks the military intervention of
the U.S. who is treaty-bound to defend Japan or the Philippines in the event of
Chinese invasion into their territories.
During
the past two years, the U.S. has been reinforcing military alliances with
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Singapore, Australia, and
Thailand. She is also strengthening her relationships with Malaysia,
Indonesia, Vietnam, and India. America’s strategy known as “Pivot to
Asia” is a plan to deploy 60% of U.S. naval and air force assets to the
Asia-Pacific region by 2020.
The
U.S. and the Philippines are now in the final stage of working out an agreement
to increase the “rotational” presence of U.S. forces on Philippine
territory. The signing of the agreement is expected to occur during
President Barack Obama’s visit to the Philippines on April 27 and 28. His
trip is part of a four-country itinerary where he will also have bilateral
talks with Japanese, South Korean, and Malaysian leaders.
Recently,
Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida briefed Japanese lawmakers that Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe could make exceptions of Japan’s policy against processing,
producing or allowing nuclear weapons with her borders.
The
question is: does that mean that Japan would allow the U.S. to bring nuclear
weapons into Japanese territory in the event of a serious threat to her
security? With Japan being the only country that had been bombed with
nuclear weapons in the history of warfare, she would be remiss if she allowed
nuclear threats from North Korea or China without the capability to strike back
in kind.
And
this brings to mind, what’s this world coming to? It would seem that what
we’re looking at is Putin’s Doctrine and Xi’s China Dream knotted into a nutty
world disorder. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
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