Pax Americana

PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz

For the first time since the end of World War II, the United States achieved a state of relative peace in the world.  President Barack Obama’s timetable of withdrawing American combat forces from Afghanistan by 2014 would mark the end of a century of warfare that began in 1914 when World War I erupted.   Yes, the elusive dream of Pax Americana – Latin for “American Peace” -- is finally coming to full realization.

           

The term “Pax Americana,” which was originally applied to relative peace in the Western Hemisphere in the 19th century and to the Western world in the first half of the 20th century, has evolved to encompass the entire world at the end of World War II.  But regional wars continued after America dropped the atomic bomb in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan.  For the ensuing 60 years, American forces were sent to the Korean War, Vietnam War, two Iraq wars, Afghanistan, and several other smaller conflicts around the world.

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But the specter of another war looms in Asia where a rising China is making her neighbors nervous, notably Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines.  To allay fears that the United States is not concerned about an emerging – and aggressive – Chinese military power, Obama implemented a “Pivot to Asia” plan where 60% of American naval forces would be deployed to the Asia-Pacific region by 2020. 

American military strategists have developed a strategy – Air-Sea Battle -- to deal with China’s missile systems, which are designed to keep U.S. air and naval forces beyond what China refers to as the “inner island chain.”  It encompasses the East China Sea and South China Sea from the southern tip of South Korea to the western edge of Borneo, an area that is bounded by Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Brunei, and Malaysia.

U.S. military planners say that Air-Sea Battle is “a concept for disabling those systems using long-range bombers and submarines. The concept is designed not so much to fight a war as to convince the Chinese that any conflict with U.S. forces would be long and costly. Pentagon officials say Air-Sea Battle is not solely focused on China, which they describe as the ‘pacing’ threat.”

China’s land-based anti-ship missiles have a maximum range of 1,300 miles, which would reach the Western Pacific and the Philippine Sea.  However, Guam – which hosts Andersen Air Base and a submarine base -- is beyond the reach of China’s missiles.  As “Air-Sea Battle” envisions, “stealthy bombers and submarines could wage a ‘blinding campaign,’ destroying long-range Chinese surveillance and missile systems and opening up the denied areas to U.S. fighter jets and ships.” (Source: Strategic and Budget Assessment).

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 In my article, “Trouble spots in Western Pacific waters” (October 12, 2012), I wrote: “What was once a relatively placid body of water in the Western Pacific has become a tinderbox ready to explode.  I am talking about an area that extends from the Sea of Japan down to the East China Sea through the Taiwan Strait and into the South China Sea with a total area of about 5.8 million square kilometers (2.2 million square miles).  It’s dotted with little islands, islets, atolls, shoals, and rocks.  Except for a handful of islands, these outcroppings are uninhabited.  But the waters are rich in oil, natural gas, and marine life. And that’s why countries in the region are interested in owning part – if not all -- of this vast body of water.”   

Of the three trouble spots in Western Pacific waters, China is involved in territorial disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei over the Spratly islands in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea); and with Taiwan and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal (Panatag Shoal to the Philippines). 

On July 24, 2012, China established a prefecture-level government in Sansha City located in Woody Island, which will administer all of the Paracel Islands (disputed by Vietnam), Spratly Islands, and Macclesfield Bank (claimed by the Philippines). 

Woody Island — which was uninhabited when China forcibly took it from Vietnam 38 years ago — is now populated with more than 1,000 Chinese civilians with roads, a bank, a post office, a supermarket, and a hospital.  In addition to the city government, China is also going to establish a military garrison in Sansha.  

Recently, China waged a word war with Japan on the territorial dispute over the Senkaku islands (Diaoyu to China), a cluster of five islets and three rocks in the East China Sea about 160 kilometers from Okinawa and about 320 kilometers from mainland China.  While the uninhabited Senkakus are administered by Okinawa, China and Taiwan claim them as part of ancient China. 

The question is: Is China prepared to go to war over the disputed islands?  

At present, China wouldn’t risk going to war with Japan over the Senkakus knowing full well that the U.S. made it clear that she considers these islands as part of Japan; thus, covered by the U.S.-Japan security treaty, which requires the U.S. to defend Japan in case of attack. 

In the case of the Spratlys, the U.S. Marine Corps Pacific Commander General Duane D. Thiessen confirmed in a media interview in Manila last April that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty covers Philippine-held islands in the Spratlys.

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With the U.S. presidential elections just a week away and the ascension of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping to the presidency coming up in December, the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections and how Xi presides over a rising China could affect the world’s balance of power.  Can Xi convince China’s military leaders to stand down on their hawkish policies and maintain peace with China’s neighbors?

Or would he play into the hands of warmongers?  One must remember that in China, the Central Military Commission (CMC) is really the one that calls the shots.  And it controls the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which reminds us of Chairman Mao Zedong’s famous quotation: “Power comes from the barrel of a gun.”

It is expected that outgoing President Hu Jintao will keep the CMC chairmanship for a few years or until the Politburo is ready to hand Xi full power and authority.  Meanwhile, he has to kowtow to Hu and the military brass.

The U.S. has its share of warmongers – rightwing politicians -- whose hard line stand on China, Russia, Iran, and Syria could bring the United States closer to the threshold of another war.  Indeed, whoever wins on Election Day would draw the chart the U.S. would take in the complex world of geopolitics. 

Perhaps, it’s time to give peace a chance to take a foothold and let the world enjoy a new era of Pax Americana. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)