Nuclear blackmail

PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz

North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un’s saber rattling – threatening to send nuclear ballistic missiles to the United States and Guam -- has left a lot of people wondering what is he up to?  Does he think that he could bring the world’s only superpower to her knees?  The answer is no  -- Kim wouldn’t dare do that! However, if he did, the repercussions could be disastrous, nay, catastrophic!  But he doesn’t seem to know that.  If he does, then he is playing a very dangerous game.
Kim, the son of Kim Jong-il and grandson of Kim Il-sung, North Korea’s founder, assumed the mantle of leadership on December 28, 2011 following the state funeral of his father who died 11 days earlier. At 29 or 30, Kim became the world’s youngest head of state. 

Kim never served in the military.  He spent most of his adult life in a boarding school in Switzerland.  On December 30, 2011, the Politburo of the Workers’ Party of Korea formally appointed him as the Supreme Commander of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).  On July 18, 2012, he was promoted to the rank of “Marshal” of the KPA.  His only claim to being in the military is his degree from the Kim Il-sung Military University.

Suddenly, with no experience in governance and military strategy, Kim found himself at the apex of power of one of the world’s poorest nations.  With a population of 24.5 million, the impoverished country maintains the world’s largest military organization with 9.5 million active, reserve, and paramilitary personnel, which includes 1.1 million active frontline personnel, the world’s fourth largest standing army.

The United Nations estimates that North Korea’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2011 was $506 per capita and growth at -0.1%.  North Korea’s main trading partner is China who accounts for 67.2% of North Korea’s exports and 61.6% imports in 2011 (Source: CIA World Factbook).

But given the anemic state of North Korea’s economy, she is spending a lot of money and resources in military research and development including nuclear weapons. 

On February 12, 2013, North Korea announced that it had conducted her third underground nuclear test in seven years.  The government claimed that the test detonated a “miniaturized and lighter nuclear device,” which, if true, could indicate that it could fit on a Nodong medium-range missile or even the longer-range KN-08, which has yet to be tested.  That would put South Korea and Japan within its range, but not the United States.

Last April 9, North Korean officials advised foreigners in South Korea to leave because they were at risk in the event of conflict between the two Koreas. The KCNA news agency reported that once war breaks out “it will be an all-out war, a merciless, sacred, retaliatory war to be waged by North Korea.”

Recent U.S. intelligence says that it is likely that North Korea might test fire mobile ballistic missiles soon, which are now being moved to the east coast facing Japan. U.S. officials say that North Korea has already completed launch preparations.  They believe that North Korea would launch without issuing a standard notice to commercial aviation and maritime shipping warning them to stay away from the missile's path.

Once the launch is made, U.S. satellite and radars in Japan and South Korea would be able to pinpoint the trajectory of the missiles within minutes, and conclude whether the missiles are on a test path headed to the open sea or headed for land – Japan or South Korea.  If they’re heading for land, the U.S. may have no alternative but to shoot them down and that’s when all hell will break loose!
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 And what would China do?  As North Korea’s solitary ally and perceived “protector,” China is in a tight quandary.  If she does not lift a finger, she would lose face and mocked as a paper tiger.  If she comes to the aid of North Korea – like what she did during the Korean War – it might trigger World War III.

Needless to say, China is not prepared to wage war with the U.S.  Not yet.  With her economy soaring high, she has a lot to lose and nothing to gain by fighting the U.S., and definitely not for an impoverished client state.

That would explain why China, after North Korea’s nuclear test in February, did not hesitate to sign the U.N. sanctions against North Korea.  It was a clear warning to Kim to toe the line.  But instead of backing down, Kim went ahead with a series of provocations against the United States, South Korea, and Japan.

It did not then come as a surprise when the media quoted Chinese President Xi Jinping as saying, “No nation should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gain,” an obvious reference to North Korea.  A few days earlier, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon that China  “does not allow any trouble making on China’s doorstep.”

For now, it remains to be seen what the enigmatic Kim would do. Would he carry out his threat to launch nuclear missiles at Japan and South Korea?  He probably would not if China would crack down on North Korea.  As the only source for subsidized food for the starving North Koreans, China could stop Kim with little effort. 

But what is it for Kim?  What is the price China – and perhaps the United States – have to pay to keep him in line?  With the United Nations sanctions tightening the economic noose on North Korea, she faces a grim future without assistance from other countries. 

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And this is where one might infer that Kim Jong-un is playing the same game – nuclear blackmail – his father, Kim Jong-il, did. In 1993, North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear plant became publicly known.  The following year, in a showdown with the U.S., Kim Il-sung threatened to convert North Korea’s nuclear fuel stockpiles into nuclear weapons.  However, he died within a month.

In 1994, after his father’s death, Kim Jong-il inherited an impoverished and backward country.  He realized that he had one card to play; that is, a nuclear weapons program.  He figured that developing nuclear weapons would put him in the company of the eight states who have successfully detonated nuclear weapons, known as the “Nuclear Club.”

When Kim Jong-il test launched a missile over Japan, it sent Japan into panic mode.  Kim learned that “nuclear power” gave him power, which he could use to blackmail his way to whichever way he wanted to go.  He used that power to get humanitarian donations from the United States and South Korea to feed his people.

It would seem that his son, Kim Jong-un, has learned a lot from his father.  The son realized that “nuclear blackmail” could bring about prosperity to his country.  If only he could pull this one up, he would be on his way to success and perhaps gain the respect of the world community.

It's a big gamble.  But would the United States play into North Korea’s hands the second time around?
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)