Panatag yesterday, Ayungin today

PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz 

 At the rate China is slicing the South China Sea like a link of salami, it won’t be long before the entire Western Pacific waters would become China’s “Lake Beijing,” which would include the South and East China Seas, and the Philippine Sea.    

China’s modern-day expansionism began when she attacked Vietnamese naval forces in the Paracel Islands (called Xisha Islands by China). Vietnamese and Chinese troops had occupied parts of the islands prior to January 19, 1974. On that fateful day, China’s superior naval forces defeated the Vietnamese forces and the Paracel Islands have since been under Chinese control.

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In my article, “China’s ‘gunboat diplomacy’ ” (July 19, 2012), I wrote: “In 1994, two years after the Philippine Senate evicted American military bases from the country, China started her ‘creeping invasion’ of Philippine territory in the disputed Spratly archipelago.  While the Philippine Navy was not patrolling the area around the Panganiban (Mischief) Reef, 130 miles away from Palawan, Chinese troops occupied the reef.  Other than lodging diplomatic protests against the incursion, the Philippine government couldn’t do much.  Today, the Panganiban Reef is fortified with permanent buildings and naval guns.   

“Last June, after more than two months of standoff, Chinese gunboats effectively took de facto possession of the Panatag Shoal when they prevented a Philippine Coast Guard vessel and fishing boats from entering the lagoon inside the shoal.

“Last July 4, the Philippines protested China’s move that virtually placed the entire West Philippine Sea including the Macclesfield Bank under the jurisdiction of a newly created city, Sansha, in Yongxing Island  (Woody Island) in the Paracels.”

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Last May 15, Mayor Eugenio Bito-onon Jr. of the Municipality of Kalayaan in the Spratly archipelago complained that while onboard the MV Queen Seagull, two unidentified “foreign vessels” harassingly tailed them for about an hour as they were passing through the Ayungin Shoal. (Source: InterAksyon.com)

Ayungin Shoal -- which is 105.77 nautical miles from Palawan -- is guarded by a small contingent of about a dozen Marines aboard the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era vessel that lay aground on the northwest side of the shoal in 1999 that serves as the Marines’ base.  The Marines reported that they sighted a Chinese warship, two maritime surveillance ships, and about 30 fishing boats within five nautical miles of the shoal.

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The Philippine government filed a diplomatic note with the Chinese Embassy in Manila, protesting the “provocative and illegal presence” of the Chinese vessels within the Philippines’ territory. 

The basis of the diplomatic protest is United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which provides a country with special rights over the “exploration and use of marine resources, including energy production from water and wind.” This is known as the 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).  Both China and the Philippines are signatories to UNCLOS.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded saying that the Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal) was part of the Spratly Islands, over which China had “indisputable sovereignty.”  “It is beyond reproach for Chinese boats to carry out patrols in these waters,” the spokesman said, adding China called on all parties to “refrain from taking actions that complicate the situation.” (Source: Reuters)

It is interesting to note that China has declared almost the entire South China Sea as her “core interest,” which means that it is not negotiable.  The claimed area is delineated by an arbitrary line called “nine-dash line,” which extends from Mainland China all the way down to the James Shoal 50 miles off the Malaysian coast and roughly 12 miles off the coasts of Vietnam and the Philippines.  Some people refer to the “nine-dash line” as the “Devil’s Tongue” because it’s shaped like a tongue. And “Devil”?  Well, you can figure that out.

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With China’s goal of controlling Western Pacific, which extends to the Philippine Sea east of the Philippines, it would transform the entire Western Pacific waters into “Lake Beijing” and the Philippines would be right in the middle of it, isolated from the rest of the world.  A “Lake Beijing” would most likely encompass the Philippines’ Benham Rise in the Philippine Sea, which is believed to have an abundance of mineral, oil, and natural gas.   The United Nations recently ruled that Benham Rise – the size of Luzon in area – is an extension of the Philippines’ continental shelf and therefore her territory.

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When Xi Jinping took power in November 2012, he mentioned “Chinese Dream” at an exhibition called “The Road to Renewal” at the National Museum in Beijing.  Xi told the people who gathered at the exhibition: “The greatest Chinese dream is the great revival of the Chinese nation. It is about realizing a prosperous and strong country, the rejuvenation of the nation and the well-being of the people.” 

In one sentence, Xi laid out his plan for the next 10 years of his reign.  And as soon as he was named President, in addition to being Secretary General of China’s Communist Party and Chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission, Xi embarked on a worldwide “beauty campaign” showcasing himself to world leaders as a trustworthy and generous “strategic partner.”  But while he was at it, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was busy building and modernizing China’s military forces and stockpiling an arsenal of aircraft, missiles, and drones.  

It did not then come as a surprise when some high-ranking Chinese officials reportedly told their U.S. counterparts that the Pacific is large enough to accommodate two superpowers – the U.S. and China – and that “Washington should quit the entire Western Pacific and cede influence there to Beijing.”   

But that’s not going to happen anytime soon.  In 2011, then-Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced that the U.S. was going to rebalance her naval forces in Asia-Pacific in what is now referred to as “Pivot to Asia,” where 60% of American naval assets would be deployed to Asia-Pacific.  At about the same time, then-Secretary of State Hillary declared in Australia, a key U.S. ally, that the U.S. would remain a “Pacific power.”

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With the U.S. increasing her naval assets in Asia-Pacific, China must have realized that the “Chinese Dream” is now elusive, which reminds me of the 2011 Asian Forum (also attended by westerners) held in Juju Island off the coast of South Korea.  The theme of the forum was to search for a “New Asia.”

Zhao Qizheng, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, exhorted – and surprised -- his audience when he said: “Let’s call ourselves ‘Asians’ from now on, rather than calling us by our different nationalities.”  That’s a pretty strong statement considering that Asians – unlike Europeans – are quite different from one nationality to another.  However, journalist Sunny Lee observed that a pronounced feature of “New Asia” was the rise of China, which was clearly felt at the forum.

With the aggressive behavior of China today, it makes one wonder if China’s neighbors would embrace her “New Asia,” which could be viewed similarly to Japan’s “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” in the 1940s.  

A word of caveat: Japan realized it the hard way 68 years ago that failure could come unexpectedly at the least opportune time.  But people sometimes don’t learn from the past and that’s when history is bound to repeat it.  

Panatag yesterday, Ayungin today.  What’s next tomorrow? (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)