PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz
With all the hoopla following the signing of
the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the Philippines and
the United States on April 28, 2014 in Manila, one would expect American
military forces to be deployed to at least eight strategic locations to protect
the Philippines from external forces intruding into her territory.
But 16
months have passed and not a single American troop has landed on Philippine
soil. Meanwhile, China began reclaiming seven reefs in the Spratly
archipelago – all within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone
(EEZ) – and building artificial islands on them. And, on these
“islands,” the Chinese are constructing military structures including a runway
and harbor on Fiery Cross Reef that can accommodate China’s biggest bombers and
large warships.
And from
these “unsinkable aircraft carriers,” China can then send her warplanes or
ballistic missiles to any region in the Philippines. With no missile
defense shield, the Philippines is indefensible. This would be a
situation that would compel the Philippines to invoke the U.S.-Philippines
Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).
But the
question is: How long would it take for the U.S. to mobilize an expeditionary
force to liberate the Philippines in the event that it was
invaded? With her military forces thinly spread out all over the
world, can the U.S. spare enough manpower and military assets to liberate the
Philippines?
During the
presidency of Ronald Reagan, his Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger devised a
step-by-step guide to serve the military and policy makers who are planning to
send U.S. troops to war. The Weinberger Doctrine was developed to
avoid the pitfalls of the Vietnam War that ended in ignominious defeat for the
U.S. The stigma of losing the war devastated America, which
made her hesitant to go to war again… until Reagan’s successor, George H.W.
Bush, sent American troops to Saudi Arabia on August 2, 1990 to prepare for the
liberation of Kuwait from Iraqi invasion. On January 17, 1991,
the American forces attacked Iraq. The Gulf War, as it was called,
ended on February 28, 1991 when the Iraqi forces fled.
Powell Doctrine
The following year, Gen. Colin Powell, the
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
updated the Weinberger Doctrine, based on the lessons learned from the
Gulf War. The modified Powell Doctrine contains eight steps, to
wit:
1. Is a vital national security
interest threatened?
2. Do we have a clear attainable
objective?
3. Have the risks and costs been
fully and frankly analyzed?
4. Have all other non-violent policy means
been fully exhausted?
5. Is there a plausible exit
strategy to avoid endless entanglement?
6. Have the consequences of our
action been fully considered?
7. Is the action supported by the
American people?
8. Do we have genuine broad international
support?
If the
Philippines invoked the MDT to repel foreign invasion, the American
decision-makers have to go through each step of the Powell Doctrine before
deciding to send troops and weaponry to the Philippines.
An
oft-repeated question from leftist and nationalist groups in the Philippines
is: “Why is it that the U.S. would defend Japan and South Korea but wouldn’t
defend the Philippines in the event of a foreign
invasion?” The answer to this question is in step one of the
Powell Doctrine: “Is a vital national security interest threatened?” The
answer is “No.”
Tripping the
wire
However, it
would have been a different situation if there were American bases in the
Philippines, which was the case before the Philippine Senate evicted the bases
in 1992. The presence of American forces on Philippine soil
would serve as a “tripwire,” which could trigger immediate reaction from
American troops stationed in the Philippines.
A case in
point is Japan and South Korea where 50,000 and 28,000 U.S. troops are
stationed, respectively. There are American airbases in both
countries. The U.S. also deploys a carrier battle group to a forward
operating base in Yokosuka, Japan. If war breaks out,
there is no need to go through the Powell Doctrine because American forces are
already there.
EDCA would
have provided the “tripwire” mechanism. With at least eight
strategic locations spread throughout the Philippines, a foreign invader
wouldn’t dare come near the country, lest she would trip the wire that would
alert U.S. forces. But where are the American forces that EDCA was
supposed to provide?
Sad to say,
EDCA is not yet operational. Several petitions have been filed in
the Supreme Court challenging the constitutionality of
EDCA. But instead of tackling the complaint due to the urgency
of the matter, the Supreme Court hasn’t done anything yet, which makes one
wonder if the high court couldn’t muster a majority to rule in favor of
EDCA?
Alignment
with a superpower
Some people
say that the Philippines should start rearming. That’s fine and she
should – nay, must! But no matter how much the country spends on
rearmament, she wouldn’t be able to match China’s firepower.
There is
only one way to defend Philippine territory and that is to align militarily
with a superpower. Now, of course, the Philippines has a choice
between the U.S. and China, the only two superpowers that have security
interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
But given
the “special” relationship between the Philippines and the U.S. as opposed to
her adversarial relationship with China, it is in the best interest of the
Philippines to align with the U.S. Otherwise, the risk of the Philippines
becoming a vassal or client state of China is very high. And this is where
the Supreme Court should hinge her arguments in ruling on the constitutionality
of EDCA.
Mutual
Defense Treaty
If the high
court fails to act on EDCA favorably, then EDCA is dead in the
water. Without EDCA, the MDT would be nothing more than a
piece of worthless paper. If the Philippines were invaded by a
foreign power, the U.S. would not be obligated to defend the country
automatically. No, sir! First of all, there is the Powell
Doctrine, which has to be applied. And, secondly, Article IV of the MDT
states that an attack on either party will be acted upon in accordance
with their constitutional processes and that any armed attack on either party
will be brought to the attention of the United Nations for immediate action.
Once the United Nations has issued such orders all hostile actions between the
signatories of this treaty and opposing parties will be
terminated.
But how can
the U.N. intervene when China is a permanent member of the U.N. Security
Council and as such has veto power? And with no warships and no
warplanes -- and no Uncle Sam to help her -- how can the Philippines protect
her sovereignty and territorial integrity from foreign aggression?
This is where military alliances
matter. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com
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