Why is Duterte worried about going to war with China?

PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz

During President Rodrigo Duterte’s last State of the Union Address (SONA) on July 27, 2020, he told Congress that he had no power to enforce the Philippines’ ownership of territories claimed by China in the South China Sea.  That was just two weeks after his foreign and defense secretaries backed the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s position accusing China of bullying Southeast Asian countries.

Now, Duterte is saying he cannot go to war against Beijing over the disputed South China Sea, calling himself “inutile.”  Instead, he suggested that we better just call off and treat this with “diplomatic endeavors.” 

First all, I don’t know where Duterte got the idea that disagreeing with China would lead to war?  In today’s geopolitical realities, war is the last option; that is, if diplomacy fails. 

Sure there are posturing among opposing countries but in the final analysis the parties end up talking diplomatically on issues confronting them.  Nobody is going to start shooting, not in today’s fast-track negotiating protocol. 

But the problem is that Duterte is operating “under the gun” after he surrendered the Philippines’ sovereignty over the Scarborough Shoal in 2012.  Since then, China had the upper hand after she cordoned off the entrance to the Scarborough Shoal.  

China could have taken full control of the shoal but U.S. President Barack Obama drew a red line over the contested shoal in 2016, warning Chinese President Xi Jinping of “serious consequences” if China reclaimed Scarborough Shoal.  

A meeting was held in Washington DC where Obama raised the stakes with Xi after U.S. intelligence concluded that China was moving towards reclaiming land at the shoal where Chinese and Philippine ships were engaged in a high-stakes confrontation in 2012.  Obama made crystal clear the US interests at stake and the risk of military escalation.  China backed off.

Following the meeting in Washington, China withdrew her ships from the area, which gave the White House a victory that some officials saw as vindication for a tougher approach than over the previous three years when it failed to force China to curb its controversial activities in the South China Sea.

But make no mistake China never set her eyes off Scarborough Shoal.  It’s always been China’s primary target in the South China Sea.  Militarization of Scarborough Shoal has always been Beijing’s number one priority. 

Scarborough Shoal militarization

China needs to militarize Scarborough Shoal to establish a strong springboard in its attempt to penetrate the Luzon Strait, the gateway to the Western Pacific and the Second Island Chain from Japan down to Guam to the Marshall Islands to Papua New Guinea.  And beyond the Second Island Chain is the vast Pacific Ocean all the way to the continental U.S.

By building air and naval bases on Scarborough Shoal, China will achieve a “Strategic Triangle” that comprises Scarborough Shoal, Paracel Islands, and Spratly Islands.  China can then declare an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the Strategic Triangle.  That would complete China’s military takeover and control over the entire South China Sea.   The question is:  Is China going to cross the red line that the U.S. drew over Scarborough Shoal during Obama’s presidency?  There is only one way to find out: cross the red line.  Would Xi cross it?  Hmm…

And this is where the U.S. and her allies should be vigilant about: to make sure that China will not build an air and naval base on Scarborough Shoal.  It will take two years to build bases on Scarborough Shoal.  At the first sign of Chinese military activity on Scarborough Shoal, the U.S. should – nay, must – act right away.  And when that happens, there is no turning back.

Pompeo commitment

Last March, Pompeo, standing next to Locsin during a press conference in Manila confirmed, for the very first time and at the highest diplomatic level that the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) specifically applies to the South China Sea. 

“As the South China Sea is part of the Pacific, any armed attack on any Philippine forces, aircraft, or public vessels in the South China Sea will trigger mutual defense treaty obligations under Article 4 of our Mutual Defense Treaty,” he said, reminding his hosts “We have your back.”

On July 13, Pompeo issued a statement outlining the “U.S. Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea.”  Pompeo’s statement coincides with the fourth anniversary of a landmark decision by the U.N. Arbitral Tribunal vindicating claims brought by the Philippines against China under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).  Pompeo’s announcement explicitly aligns the U.S. with the UNCLOS tribunal ruling, which declares that China’s expansive claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are “completely unlawful” including China’s nine-dash line.

Pompeo’s statement is the first instance in which the U.S. government has publicly endorsed the merits of the 2016 UNCLOS tribunal decision on the status of certain features in the Spratly Islands and related maritime entitlements.  However, the decision did not address underlying sovereignty claims.

There you go, plain and simple, the U.S. is committed to defending Philippine interests in the Scarborough Shoal. If China attacks Philippine forces anywhere in the South China Sea – including Scarborough Shoal – the U.S. will come to the Philippines’ defense.  So, what is Duterte’s problem? 

Duterte’s problem

I think his problem is that he doesn’t want to admit that he can invoke the MDT, which would trigger the U.S. to come to the defense of the Philippines.  Just imagine the full force of the U.S. armed forces in the Far East pitted against China – awesome!  If war erupts as a result, it will be over before the day ends.  But Duterte doesn’t want to antagonize Xi for reasons unknown.   Is there a commission involved in the $26 billion Chinese infrastructure projects that Xi promised Duterte?  That’s a lot of moolah!

It’s interesting to note that Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana and Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. are both staunch supporters of a strong US-Philippines alliance.  They played a central role in Duterte’s U-turn on abrogation of the U.S.-Philippine Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) in June.

So, why is Duterte worried about going to war with China?  As retired Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio said in reaction to Duterte’s SONA, “A country does not need to go to war to assert its sovereign rights.

There are lawful and peaceful means of asserting sovereign rights. He noted that other countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia have been doing their part in their respective maritime zones.  “War is not even option because the UN (United Nations) Charter outlaws resort to war to settle territorial or maritime disputes,” he added.

President Duterte shouldn’t be worried at the prospect of war with China.  He has the full force of the United States behind him.  And should China decide to attack the Philippines, it would end even before it started. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)