PERRYSCOPE

South China Sea tinderbox
PERRY DIAZ

The oft-forgotten and misunderstood Spratly islands have taken center stage in a world of diminishing oil reserves and spiraling cost of oil. Why not? In my article, "The Spratly Betrayal (March 14, 2008)," I mentioned that it was estimated that there are about three trillion cubic feet of oil in the area. That's 535 billion barrels of oil! By comparison, Saudi Arabia has proven reserves of 264 billion barrels.

It's no wonder then that China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei have claimed all or portions of the islands. And recently, the United States has shown a keen interest in commercial and military activities in the Spratlys. The archipelago is comprised of 51 islands and reefs with a total land area of less than two square miles but spread over more than 150,000 square miles of sea.

China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Malaysia have stationed troops in about 45 islands while Brunei has established a fishing zone. There have been no armed skirmishes among the claimants since 1988 when China and Vietnam briefly fought a naval battle over the contested islands. However, a lot of political posturing has taken place lately.

In recent months, the United States and China have been playing a political "chess game" using the other claimants as pawns. The former is the most powerful nation on earth and the latter the most populous. And their economies rely heavily on the continuous flow of oil from outside their borders. China's position is that the Spratly archipelago is within its continental shelf. But Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, and Malaysia could also make the same claim.

After all, most of South China Sea was once a landmass during the Ice Age; thus, making Asia and all the islands in and around the South China Sea one contiguous land. It is interesting to note that China had attempted several times in the past -- during the reigns of Kublai Khan in the 13th century and Yong Lo in the 15th century -- to colonize the islands from Japan all the way down to the Malay archipelago.

In 2004, the Philippines and China entered into an agreement to jointly explore the Spratlys. The three-year agreement called Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking (JMSU) -- the terms of which had been kept secret by both governments -- had been widely criticized as a "sellout" of Philippine territory. In 2005, Vietnam -- after making a lot of noise -- was added to the JMSU agreement.

In May 2008, just prior to the expiration of the JMSU agreement, China and Vietnam agreed to finish marking their Spratly borders by the end of 2008. Evidently, both countries have ignored the territorial claims of the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. They're just about to divide the archipelago between the two of them.

On June 24, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo visited U.S. President George Bush at the Oval Office. Two hours later, President Bush met with visiting Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. Coincidence? Hmmm…

Two weeks later, the Philippine government announced that the controversial JMSU had lapsed and that it has decided for the time being not to extend the agreement. However, with China and Vietnam already talking about carving up the islands between the two of them, in my opinion JMSU is dead… forever.

A few weeks later, Vietnam announced that state-owned PetroVietnam has signed an agreement with Exxon Mobil Corp to explore for oil in the South China Sea. Immediately, China fired off a strong protest and threatened to bar Exxon Mobil from doing business in China if it didn't pull out of the deal with PetroVietnam.

It seems to me that China is hell-bent on stopping anyone who trespasses into her "domain." China may not have the capability to assert itself as a world superpower -- not yet -- but she definitely has the means, economically and militarily, to become the undisputed power in the South China Sea and, by extension, the entire Eastern Hemisphere.

The only obstacle to China's goal is the United States who has been trying very hard to have a strong economic and military presence in region. President Bush's separate meetings with President Arroyo and Prime Minister Dung are probably pumping up Chinese President Hu Jintao's blood pressure and the oil exploration agreement between PetroVietnam and Exxon Mobil is probably giving him nightmares.

With China's building up of an "undersea nuclear deterrent" in the South China Sea, the whole region has become a tinderbox and an armed conflict -- like the ones in 1979 and 1988 -- between China and Vietnam could erupt at any time. And what would the United States do in such an event? It would be unlikely for the U.S. to overtly come to the aid of Vietnam. However, she could covertly aid Vietnam to protect her own economic interests in the South China Sea. (PerryDiaz@gmail. com)