Can the Philippines stop Chinese aggression?

PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz

With an air force without warplanes and a navy without warships, can the Philippines stop Chinese aggression?  The answer is “No way!” 

The media quoted Secretary of Defense Voltaire Gazmin as saying:  “We cannot stand alone. We need allies. If we do not [seek allies], bigger forces will bully us and that is what is happening now.  China is already there, staying in our territory.”  Yes, indeed.

          

Actually, China had already invaded Philippine territory way back in 1994 when she occupied the Panganiban (Mischief) Reef, which is only 130 miles away from Palawan.  And this happened two years after the Philippine Senate voted to remove U.S. bases from Philippine soil.  

            

That should serve as a lesson that without a strong military force, the Philippines is sitting duck to Chinese invasion.  The best – and only -- deterrent to Chinese invasion was the presence of American bases, particularly the huge Subic Naval Base, which was home to the U.S. Seventh Fleet.  With the presence of the Seventh Fleet in the Western Pacific waters (South China Sea, Strait of Taiwan, East China Sea, and Sea of Japan), China wouldn’t dare invade Japan, Taiwan or the Philippines. 

With the closure of American bases in the Philippines, the U.S. moved the Seventh Fleet to Hawaii and Guam while maintaining a carrier strike group in Yokosuka, Japan.  The move left a power vacuum in the Western Pacific.  And guess who filled that void?

            

Since then, China has built a strong naval fleet as well as a large maritime surveillance fleet.  As the new naval power in the South China Sea, China resorted to “salami-slicing” tactics, grabbing territories – island by island -- belonging to her neighbors.  And guess who is the most vulnerable to China’s aggressive behavior? 

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In my article, “What if China attacked the Spratlys” (July 13, 2011), I wrote: “Although the US reaffirmed its commitment to come to the defense of the Philippines should she be attacked by China or any other foreign country, there are political and geopolitical considerations that the US has to weigh before sending her military forces to the defense of the Philippines or, specifically, the Spratlys.

“The question in everybody’s mind is: What if China attacked the Spratlys?  And if so, can we survive a Chinese attack?

“Here are some military statistics from globalfirepower.com:

Active Military Personnel: China 2,255,000 (2008); Philippines 113,000
Total Aircraft: China 1,900 (2004); Philippines 257 (2003)
Helicopters: China 491 (2004); Philippines 126 (2003)
Total Navy Ships: China 760; Philippines 36
Aircraft Carrier: China 1; Philippines 0
Destroyers: China 21 (2004); Philippines 0
Submarines: China 68; Philippines 0
Frigates: China 42 (2004); Philippines 1
Patrol and Coastal Craft: China 368 (2004); Philippines 24 (2008)
Amphibious Craft: China 121 (2004); Philippines, 12 (2008)

“By just looking at the two countries’ military forces, there is no way the Philippines could survive a Chinese attack.  The Philippine Navy has one World War II-vintage frigate and an Air Force that consists mainly of helicopters and no jet fighters.  In a matter of days the entire Spratly archipelago could be in the possession of China — without firing a single shot!”

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And that’s exactly what China had done with her de facto occupation of the Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal in 2012 and attempt to occupy the Ayungin Reef, which is part of the Philippine-controlled Kalayaan group of islands in the Spratly archipelago.   

But what stopped the Chinese from occupying Ayungin Reef was the presence of a unit of Philippines marines – about a dozen – quartered in the BRP Sierra Madre, which ran aground at the reef in May 1999.  Apparently, not quite ready to shoot it out with the Philippine marines, the Chinese flotilla, which consisted of two naval vessels and a fleet of about 30 fishing boats, stayed several miles away but within striking distance.

At the recent ASEAN Regional Forum in Brunei, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario that, historically, China was the one sending ships to Scarborough and Ayungin, interdicting their fishermen.  Yi offered to move the grounded vessel at no cost to the Philippine government.

Had del Rosario accepted Yi’s offer -- which would also result in the forced withdrawal of the Philippine marines -- the next thing the Chinese would do is to occupy the reef.  That’s exactly what they did at the Scarborough Shoal after tricking the Philippines into withdrawing a coast guard vessel and fishing boats from the shoal’s lagoon with a promise that China would do the same.  Well, guess what?

What followed next was that China cordoned off the only entry point to the lagoon and also established a 15-mile security perimeter around the shoal.  As a result, Filipino fishermen from the town of Masinloc, Zambales, 124 miles from the shoal, were deprived of their livelihood.

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There is now a clamor to amend the 1987 Constitution to remove Section 25, Article XVIII, which states: “Foreign military bases, troops, or facilities shall not be allowed in the Philippines except under a treaty duly concurred in by the Senate and, when the Congress so requires, ratified by a majority of the votes cast by the people in a national referendum held for that purpose, and recognized as a treaty by the other contracting State.” But President Benigno “P-Noy” Aquino III is resisting any attempt to change what he deems as the legacy of his mother, the late President Cory Aquino.

Recently, P-Noy indicated that he is in favor of granting access to Philippine bases to allies like the U.S. and Japan.  However, he stressed that granting access to American and Japanese soldiers wouldn’t mean that they’d be based permanently on Philippine soil. 

Now, that’s like kicking them in the shin.  How do you expect the U.S. and Japan to defend the country if they couldn’t be provided with permanent basing privileges?   Aquino needs to remember that he has nobody to turn to but America should China attack Philippine territory.  Not in a hundred years! 

           

Last July 8, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) was reported in the news as saying that granting access to the U.S. and other allies would not violate the Constitution.  However, Ambassador to the U.S. Jose Cuisa Jr. told reporters that an “access agreement” couldn’t go beyond the Constitution.  “We want to make sure that whatever agreement is entered into is going to be in line with the Constitution,” he said.  He said that an access agreement has to be mutually beneficial to both countries.

In reaction to Cuisa’s statement, the left-leaning Pambansang Lakas ng Kilusang Mamamalakayang Pilipinas (Pamalakaya), a national federation of 43 small fisherfolk organizations, insisted that the “constitutionality and legal correctness of the military’s plan should be questioned.” 

Caught between national security and a constitutional ban on foreign bases, the Philippine government has only one option to solve the dilemma; and that is, Charter change.  The people need to be cognizant that the only way to stop Chinese aggression is to welcome back the American bases.  It’s either that or we might as well kiss the Spratlys good-bye. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)