Thirty seconds to midnight
>> Monday, April 4, 2022
PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz
SINCE 1947, WHEN THE Science and Security Board (SSB) of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists met for the first time to perform its annual ritual of setting the time on the “Doomsday Clock,” the scientists initially agreed to set the clock to 11:53 PM or seven minutes to midnight. The SSB is a select group of globally recognized leaders with a specific focus on nuclear risk, climate change, and disruptive technologies. They hang the clock on a wall in the Bulletin’s office at the University of Chicago to remind everybody how close we were to the threat of global nuclear war.
Since then, the clock has been set as close or as far as midnight. In 1972, the clock was set to 11:48 PM or 12 minutes to midnight when the U.S. and the Soviet Union signed the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I) and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
In 1984, the clock was set once again to 11:57 PM when tensions escalated between the U.S. and the Soviet Union when the arms race intensified. The U.S. deployed Pershing II medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles in Western Europe.
In 1991, the clock was set to 11:43 PM or 17 minutes to midnight, the earliest setting since its inception, when the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and the collapse of the Soviet Union thereafter.
In January 2015, the clock was set to 11:57 PM or three minutes to midnight, the closest we were to doomsday since 1984. It was due to the modernization of nuclear weapons in the U.S. and Russia, the specter of a new Cold War, the problem of nuclear waste, and the danger of global climate change.
In January 2020, the minute hand was moved 30 seconds forward from two and a half minutes to two minutes before midnight. But the worst has yet to come. "Humanity continues to face two simultaneous existential dangers — nuclear war and climate change — that are compounded by a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information warfare, that undercuts society's ability to respond," the SSB said.
Ukraine invasion
On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “illegal and dangerous” invasion of Ukraine and placing Russia’s nuclear armaments on high alert, which the SSB considers to be the gravest danger to humanity, has set the Doomsday Clock to 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it ever been to apocalypse.
By threatening to use nuclear weapons or launching a “First Strike” nuclear attack against the U.S. and her NATO allies if war breaks out between Russia and the NATO alliance, it has brought a nightmare scenario to life, which sets the Doomsday Clock to 30 seconds to midnight.
Biden’s mental paralysis
But the problem is that President Joe Biden has encouraged Putin – by vowing not to get involved in the Ukraine war -- to flaunt using his nuclear weapons if the U.S. and her NATO allies would send troops to Ukraine. By playing the threat of “World War III,” Putin has disarmed Biden and tied his hands behind his back. Biden, the other day even said, “Don’t kid yourself, but once we enter the war, it will be World War III,” which makes one wonder: “If Russia attacks the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – which would be next after Ukraine -- would America and the NATO countries send their troops to fight the Russians? How about the two non-NATO countries of Moldova and Georgia? The other day, the Moldovan Prime Minister requested joining NATO because they know they’re next on Putin’s crosshairs. Taken aback, Secretary of State Antony Blinken didn’t respond. He could at least reassure the Moldovan Prime Minister that he’d relay the request.
It would seem that the entire Biden administration – Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, four-star General Mark Milley – had succumbed to a debilitating mental paralysis, unable to act when threatened with nuclear annihilation. But the truth is: America’s leadership’s amnesia has its provenance since Biden hastily withdrew American troops from Afghanistan last year. It gave Putin the go-signal that he could do anything he wanted to and Biden would just play possum, unmindful of whatever the consequence will be. But doesn’t Biden realize that he had just pulled the MAD auto-mechanism?
Now, all Putin has to do is threaten “First Strike” and Biden would just stare blankly at the nuclear football held by his aide-de-camp… and do nothing. And suddenly, his semi-senile mind goes into a paralytic state, unable to respond to the nuclear crisis, which he inadvertently and unconsciously abetted by vowing that he would never send the army of the most powerful nuclear power and richest country in history to fight the bankruptcy-bound invading Russians in Ukraine. What a shame!
American history
Biden needs to study American history from the time the U.S. entered World War I to the victorious conclusion of World War II. Never in those two world wars did America ever flinch in the face of defeat, only to emerge the victor who would rule in peace and prosperity until… today. Today, the great American nation is facing extinction only because she allowed a mad genius to roll his tanks into Ukraine and laid waste to a beautiful and proud country. Ukraine is bound to lose her sovereignty because America allowed Russian war planes to ravage their land and refused to send NATO warplanes to defend the besieged Ukrainian people who are fleeing -- helplessly and hopelessly – amid the attacking Russian tanks and aerial bombardment.
But even if Russia launches a “First Strike” attack against the U.S.’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) based in the continental U.S., it would take 30 minutes to reach their targets. It would give the U.S. a “Second Strike” counter-attack using her fleet of 14 ballistic missile submarines – known as “boomers” – that are positioned anywhere in the open seas as close as the Baltic Sea and Mediterranean Sea, which would reach their targets in Russia within five minutes. Each submarine carries 24 Trident missiles and each missile can carry up to 14 warheads. That’s a total of 4,704 nuclear warheads, more than enough to counter any attack with devastating nuclear power, which would erase Russia from the Earth’s map. Together, the 14 Ohio-class submarines carry approximately 50% of the total U.S. active inventory of strategic thermonuclear warheads.
Putin is crazy
Needless to say, Putin knows that he cannot win a nuclear war against the U.S. He might be crazy but he’s not stupid to realize that once he presses the “doomsday button,” it will lead to MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction. That means it will destroy the entire mankind, his country first, and possibly blow the planet Earth into zillions of radioactive meteorites. Only a stupid madman will do that. But as long as the leaders of America and Russia are aware of the consequences of MAD, they’ll never dare bring MAD to fruition. And such, no one would ever start World War III. It’s unthinkable.
But it would take a sane and calculating world leader to stop this stupid madman from even thinking of pressing the “doomsday button” that would turn his beloved “Mother Russia” into a radioactive nuclear wasteland for the next 1,000 years. Putin’s descendants would long him as the madman whose stupidity would be etched in every Russian’s mind that he once ruled the biggest empire on Earth only to lose it because he became too ambitious.
At the end of the day, Putin may only have thirty seconds to midnight to blow the world into radioactive smithereens.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
SINCE 1947, WHEN THE Science and Security Board (SSB) of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists met for the first time to perform its annual ritual of setting the time on the “Doomsday Clock,” the scientists initially agreed to set the clock to 11:53 PM or seven minutes to midnight. The SSB is a select group of globally recognized leaders with a specific focus on nuclear risk, climate change, and disruptive technologies. They hang the clock on a wall in the Bulletin’s office at the University of Chicago to remind everybody how close we were to the threat of global nuclear war.
Since then, the clock has been set as close or as far as midnight. In 1972, the clock was set to 11:48 PM or 12 minutes to midnight when the U.S. and the Soviet Union signed the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I) and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
In 1984, the clock was set once again to 11:57 PM when tensions escalated between the U.S. and the Soviet Union when the arms race intensified. The U.S. deployed Pershing II medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles in Western Europe.
In 1991, the clock was set to 11:43 PM or 17 minutes to midnight, the earliest setting since its inception, when the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and the collapse of the Soviet Union thereafter.
In January 2015, the clock was set to 11:57 PM or three minutes to midnight, the closest we were to doomsday since 1984. It was due to the modernization of nuclear weapons in the U.S. and Russia, the specter of a new Cold War, the problem of nuclear waste, and the danger of global climate change.
In January 2020, the minute hand was moved 30 seconds forward from two and a half minutes to two minutes before midnight. But the worst has yet to come. "Humanity continues to face two simultaneous existential dangers — nuclear war and climate change — that are compounded by a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information warfare, that undercuts society's ability to respond," the SSB said.
Ukraine invasion
On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “illegal and dangerous” invasion of Ukraine and placing Russia’s nuclear armaments on high alert, which the SSB considers to be the gravest danger to humanity, has set the Doomsday Clock to 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it ever been to apocalypse.
By threatening to use nuclear weapons or launching a “First Strike” nuclear attack against the U.S. and her NATO allies if war breaks out between Russia and the NATO alliance, it has brought a nightmare scenario to life, which sets the Doomsday Clock to 30 seconds to midnight.
Biden’s mental paralysis
But the problem is that President Joe Biden has encouraged Putin – by vowing not to get involved in the Ukraine war -- to flaunt using his nuclear weapons if the U.S. and her NATO allies would send troops to Ukraine. By playing the threat of “World War III,” Putin has disarmed Biden and tied his hands behind his back. Biden, the other day even said, “Don’t kid yourself, but once we enter the war, it will be World War III,” which makes one wonder: “If Russia attacks the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – which would be next after Ukraine -- would America and the NATO countries send their troops to fight the Russians? How about the two non-NATO countries of Moldova and Georgia? The other day, the Moldovan Prime Minister requested joining NATO because they know they’re next on Putin’s crosshairs. Taken aback, Secretary of State Antony Blinken didn’t respond. He could at least reassure the Moldovan Prime Minister that he’d relay the request.
It would seem that the entire Biden administration – Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, four-star General Mark Milley – had succumbed to a debilitating mental paralysis, unable to act when threatened with nuclear annihilation. But the truth is: America’s leadership’s amnesia has its provenance since Biden hastily withdrew American troops from Afghanistan last year. It gave Putin the go-signal that he could do anything he wanted to and Biden would just play possum, unmindful of whatever the consequence will be. But doesn’t Biden realize that he had just pulled the MAD auto-mechanism?
Now, all Putin has to do is threaten “First Strike” and Biden would just stare blankly at the nuclear football held by his aide-de-camp… and do nothing. And suddenly, his semi-senile mind goes into a paralytic state, unable to respond to the nuclear crisis, which he inadvertently and unconsciously abetted by vowing that he would never send the army of the most powerful nuclear power and richest country in history to fight the bankruptcy-bound invading Russians in Ukraine. What a shame!
American history
Biden needs to study American history from the time the U.S. entered World War I to the victorious conclusion of World War II. Never in those two world wars did America ever flinch in the face of defeat, only to emerge the victor who would rule in peace and prosperity until… today. Today, the great American nation is facing extinction only because she allowed a mad genius to roll his tanks into Ukraine and laid waste to a beautiful and proud country. Ukraine is bound to lose her sovereignty because America allowed Russian war planes to ravage their land and refused to send NATO warplanes to defend the besieged Ukrainian people who are fleeing -- helplessly and hopelessly – amid the attacking Russian tanks and aerial bombardment.
But even if Russia launches a “First Strike” attack against the U.S.’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) based in the continental U.S., it would take 30 minutes to reach their targets. It would give the U.S. a “Second Strike” counter-attack using her fleet of 14 ballistic missile submarines – known as “boomers” – that are positioned anywhere in the open seas as close as the Baltic Sea and Mediterranean Sea, which would reach their targets in Russia within five minutes. Each submarine carries 24 Trident missiles and each missile can carry up to 14 warheads. That’s a total of 4,704 nuclear warheads, more than enough to counter any attack with devastating nuclear power, which would erase Russia from the Earth’s map. Together, the 14 Ohio-class submarines carry approximately 50% of the total U.S. active inventory of strategic thermonuclear warheads.
Putin is crazy
Needless to say, Putin knows that he cannot win a nuclear war against the U.S. He might be crazy but he’s not stupid to realize that once he presses the “doomsday button,” it will lead to MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction. That means it will destroy the entire mankind, his country first, and possibly blow the planet Earth into zillions of radioactive meteorites. Only a stupid madman will do that. But as long as the leaders of America and Russia are aware of the consequences of MAD, they’ll never dare bring MAD to fruition. And such, no one would ever start World War III. It’s unthinkable.
But it would take a sane and calculating world leader to stop this stupid madman from even thinking of pressing the “doomsday button” that would turn his beloved “Mother Russia” into a radioactive nuclear wasteland for the next 1,000 years. Putin’s descendants would long him as the madman whose stupidity would be etched in every Russian’s mind that he once ruled the biggest empire on Earth only to lose it because he became too ambitious.
At the end of the day, Putin may only have thirty seconds to midnight to blow the world into radioactive smithereens.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
Perry DIaz
WHAT BEGAN AS one of 97 wannabe presidential candidates has blossomed into one of the five remaining contenders for president of the Philippines. And of the five remaining presidential candidates, Leni Robredo has moved up to the top two candidates with barely two months remaining in the campaign season. In all honesty, the contest is now down to just two – former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Vice President Leni Robredo, who had hesitated from running for president for lack of funds.
But her friends and supporters prevailed in convincing her to run. When Leni finally decided to run for president, her approval rating was one percent. Little by little her rating increased to 16%. Within a month, she surpassed everybody except Marcos Jr. who had a fantastic approval rating of 60%, which by any measure would be unbeatable. It seemed like Bongbong was going to bag the presidency.
Now, she’s on the cusp of becoming the leader of a nation beset with problems from pandemic to unemployment, from poverty to inequality. But what is noteworthy – and commendable -- is the way she addressed the nation’s problems.
Leni has been compared to Cory Aquino. But she said she didn’t deserve to be compared to the “icon of democracy.” However, there were similarities. They’re both widows of political figures. Cory was elevated to the presidency by the EDSA People Power Revolution.
And Leni is now riding the crest of her “Pink Revolution,” which has galvanized Filipinos of all ages. Since she began holding rallies in various cities, Leni had attracted thousands of enthusiastic young people who donned pink shirts and held pink banners. They attended her rallies, rain or shine.
Resonant message of peace
"We are faced with issues of terrific scale and complexity. But violence is not the right response to poverty and inequality. Bloodshed will not solve crime and injustice," she said.
She had criticized President Rodrigo Duterte’s method of fighting criminality and drugs, saying, "Violence is the quick fix that we must prevent and condemn. Violence is a way of cutting corners, where complex problems are met with simplistic but ineffective solutions."
Leni addressed the millennials, saying, “I believe that millennials, like you, care. I believe that modern technology puts you in the perfect position to protect the greater good. Most importantly, I believe that you are ready to fight this fight, to answer the urgent call for nation-building, no matter how young you are," she said.
“But when I say 'fighting the fight,' I don't mean that literally. In protecting the Filipino people and the interests of our nation, we must not resort to the brutality of warfare. Our democracy has no room for political intimidation or violence. Progress can always be achieved peacefully," she added.
Her message has resonated with the people, young and old alike. It’s populist to say the least. But she attacked the problem head-on by encouraging the people to use peaceful means of solving the nation’s problems. But one thing she has been doing that I’ve never observed with past presidential candidates is that Leni never attacked her opponents.
Leni’s call on the youth to join nation-building has been a recurring message she delivered before young audiences. And the crowd roared with approval. They’re ecstatic! They love her! She projected a mother-image and it hit them in their hearts: a mother telling her children to participate in nation-building. It’s unheard of before.
Refusal to debate the issues
But Philippine politics is the art of measuring the present against the past. They get a glimpse of what the future would look like based on the candidate’s past history and present performance. But all it takes to mess up the calculus is if the candidate fails to address the issues, which could cause his or her campaign to collapse.
A case in point was former Vice President Jejomar Binay who was leading the polls for sometime until one issue was raised against him. He failed to address the issue of corruption when he was Mayor of Makati. And that brought him down. He placed fourth place in the presidential election of 2010.
Bongbong’s ratings have plummeted recently, mainly because of his refusal to participate in debates with other presidential candidates. He’s running on one theme, “Unity,” which is hollow and meaningless.
In fact, his candidacy has brought back memories of the bloody reign of his dictator father and namesake, Ferdinand E. Marcos, who bankrupted the Central Bank of the Philippines.
All the gold reserves were gone! Where did they go? Nobody knows but one can surmise what happened to the gold bullions. What Marcos did was dissolve the Central Bank of the Philippines and create the Banko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Its bad accounts are still being paid for by taxpayers.
Bongbong also refused to apologize for the dark period of martial law of which thousands of mysterious deaths – called “salvages” – remained unsolved to this day.
And then there is the case of unpaid income taxes of some P203 billion, which Bongbong refused to address or pay.
Kakampinks
Meanwhile, Leni’s grand people’s rallies have brought out thousands of Leni’s supporters, the “Kakampinks.” The following are some of Leni’s rallies:
February 13, Quezon City, 20,000 attended.
February 25, Iloilo City, 40,000 attended.
March 7, Malolos City, 45,000 attended.
March 9, General Trias, Cavite, 47,000 attended.
March 11, Bacolod City, 70,000 attended.
March 12, Echague, Isabela, 10,000 attended.
March 17, Zamboanga City, 35,000 attended.
March 15, General Santos City, 7,000 attended.
But what the rallies have shown on the ground, the surveys also have shown Leni’s rising numbers. In a scenario reminiscent of the 2016 vice presidential election, Leni overtook Bongbong in the latest survey and analysis of at least three credible organizations, two of them global.
A survey sponsored by Manila Bulletin using Facebook had Leni with 47%, while Bongbong had 44%. One of the Philippines’ top three broadsheets, the Manila Bulletin reported the results with more than 1,000,000 participants.
Robredo finally overtook Bongbong in the survey conducted in the last week of January, this year. Results for February have not yet been released as of press time.
The Bulletin had been conducting surveys on presidential preferences since late last year, and Marcos Jr. came out on top each time.
In contrast, the Pulse Asia survey that gave Bongbong 60% approval rating used face-to-face interviews on 2,400 respondents. The survey was taken from February 18 to 23, 2022, which was a month after the Manila Bulletin survey.
Meanwhile, Leni topped Google Search with 46% followed by Bongbong with 26% on March 11, 2022.
Perception is reality
With two months left in the campaign season, people are beginning to refocus their perception of the candidates. And like they say, “Perception is reality,” perception is what you project into the future based on the reality you see today. Let’s apply this to the Bongbong-Leni rivalry.
Leni’s openness has created a perception of honesty and trustworthiness, while Bongbong’s refusal to discuss issues and debate what he meant by “unity” smacks of secretiveness, willfulness, and deceit. Many perceive that the reason he refused to participate in debates is that he’d be exposing himself to scrutiny, particularly his family’s unexplained wealth, unpaid income taxes, and disqualification case before the Supreme Court.
While it appears that Leni Robredo has finally broken Bongbong Marcos’ huge lead in the various surveys, the only solid evidence that Leni’s phenomenal Pink Revolution is bound to carry her to victory on May 9, 2022 were the huge turnouts at the Leni-Kiko grand people’s rallies.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
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