Chinese migration to the Philippines

PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz

Five-five hundred years ago, the first Austronesians migrated from South China to Taiwan. It took another 1,500 years before they migrated to the Philippines.
    In my column, “Who Discovered the Philippines?” (April 13, 2007), I wrote: “In the late 1990s, Jared Diamond, Professor of Geography at UCLA and winner of the Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science, and Peter Bellwood, Professor of Archaeology at the Australian National University, postulated that the Austronesians had their roots in Southern China. 
    Diamond said that they migrated to Taiwan around 3,500 B.C.  However, Bellwood believed that the Austronesian expansion started as early as 6,000 B.C.  Around 3,000 B.C., the Malayo-Polynesians -- a subfamily of the Austronesians -- began their migration out of Taiwan.  The first stop was northern Luzon [near present-day Aparri, Ilocos Norte]. 
    Over a span of 2,000 years, the Malayo-Polynesian expansion spread southward to the rest of the Philippine archipelago and crossed the ocean to Celebes, Borneo, Timor, Java, Sumatra, Malay Peninsula, and Vietnam; westward in the Indian Ocean to Madagascar; and eastward in the Pacific Ocean to New Guinea, New Zealand, Samoa, Fiji, Marquesas, Cook, Pitcairn, Easter, and Hawaii. 
    Today, the Malayo-Polynesian speaking people have populated a vast area that covers a distance of about 11,000 miles and two oceans – Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean -- from Madagascar to Hawaii, almost half the circumference of the world.”  We’ve come a long way, baby.
Pre-Hispanic era   
In the 11th century, long before the arrival of the Spaniards, Chinese traders had already been coming to the Philippines.  They went as far as Butuan and Sulu. However, most of their trade activities were in Luzon due to its proximity to China.  
    The trade with China has a major influence and contribution within the Filipino culture. 
In 1405, during the reign of the Ming Dynasty in China, Emperor Yung Lo claimed the island of Luzon and placed it under his empire. The Chinese called the island “Lusong” from the Chinese characters Lui Sung.  The biggest settlement of Chinese was in Lingayen in Pangasinan. 
    Lingayen also became the seat of the Chinese colonial government in Luzon. When Yung Lo died in 1424, the new Emperor Hongxi, Yung Lo’s son, lost interest in the colony and the colonial government was dissolved.  However, the Chinese settlers in Lingayen -- known as “sangleys” -- remained and prospered.”
 Spanish colonial era
When the Spanish conquistadores arrived in Manila in 1571, they destroyed the existing Muslim settlement and built a fortress around it and named it Intramuros, which became the capital of the new colony.  The walls were constructed to keep out invading Chinese pirates.  
    One of them was the notorious Limahong.  In 1574, he tried to capture Manila but was beaten by the combined Spanish and native forces.  Limahong retreated to Lingayen where he built a fort in 1575.  He fought the Spaniards for four months but eventually abandoned his fort and fled to the sea never to return again. 
    The Chinese migrants lived in a settlement called Parian outside the walled city of Intramuros.  The Chinese men, who arrived without women, intermarried with the native women, and their offspring came to be known as Mestizos de Sangley.
During the Philippine Revolution of 1898, full-blooded Spaniards born in Spain and sent to Spanish colonies to govern were called peninsulares.  Full-blooded Spaniards born in the colonies were called insulares and those born in the Philippines were called Filipinos. Filipinos with Spanish blood and native blood were also called Filipinos and so were the Mestizos de Sangley and other races mixed with Spanish blood.  In contrast, the natives of pure Austronesian descent were called Indios, which was considered derogatory.   
    It was only after the Philippine Revolution when the Spanish colonial regime ended that the Indios came to be called rightfully as Filipinos.
    The Chinese mestizos – the Sangleys/Filipinos -- would later fan the flames of the Philippine Revolution.  Many leaders of the Philippine Revolution themselves have substantial Chinese ancestry.
    These include Jose Rizal, Emilio Aguinaldo, Andres Bonifacio, Marcelo del Pilar, and Antonio Luna.  And lastly, there was the principalia, the ruling and usually educated class, comprising of the Gobernadorcillo (similar to present-day mayor), Cabezas de Barangay (heads of the barangays), former gobernadorcillos and Municipal lieutenants.
Modern-day Philippines 
    Today, the Filipino Chinese population is about 1.8% (1.5 million) of the country’s total population, most of whom had Hispanized their names or contracted them into a single surname like Teehankee from Tee Han Kee.  The largest groups of Chinese are those who migrated from Mainland China since 1949 when the communists took over the country.   
    Chinese migration to the Philippines has been constant but it increased exponentially in 2016 when President Rodrigo Duterte came to power.  Today, there are at least four million Chinese nationals from Mainland China who were allowed to enter the country as tourists but were able to get special work permits by bribing immigration officials. This came to be known as the “pastillas scheme.”
    According to news reports, the “pastillas scheme” had generated some P30 billion in kickbacks from 3.8 million Chinese arrivals that were shared among officers at the Bureau of Immigration (BI) under the non-visa-upon-arrival (non-VUA) racket.  Another P2 billion in bribes was generated from Chinese tourists under the visa-upon-arrival (VUA) racket.  
    Since VUA requires the issuance of visas, the bribe money goes straight to the main office where the visas are approved.  Another P8 billion was earned through payola for hassle-free departure of trafficked people.  That’s a whooping P40 billion generated in the pastillas scheme!  Yes, everybody has a cut, from top to bottom.
 
It’s called pastillas scheme because the bribe money is rolled in white wrapper like the milk candy called “pastillas.”  It involves BI officers who allowed the smooth entry of Chinese nationals to the country in exchange for a P10,000 “service fee” or “lagay.”
    It’s interesting to note that the Chinese nationals arriving in the country has almost tripled since 2016 when Duterte came to power.  They bought condos, live in upper middle-class homes, and drive expensive cars. Hundreds of Chinese POGO workers have taken up residence in a known multinational subdivision in Parañaque City.  And they also boosted retail sales.  They also bought large tracts of land using Filipino straw buyers, which has substantially increased the price of land. 
    Residents in the upscale subdivision said they’re troubled by those moving into their neighborhood.  They said that they’re worried about the recent construction of a firing range, which caused them to wonder if the able-bodied men with short-cropped hair could be members of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on mission to the Philippines.  
    There has been a mounting backlash from locals who fear that the Chinese workers are taking their jobs.  In addition, the Chinese workers were suspected of committing crimes.
Rise in crimes
Crimes committed by Chinese have been headlined causing resentment from the locals.  Last year, a 23-year-old Chinese woman hurled a cup of soy pudding at a police officer after she was barred from boarding a train with her food. The incident triggered an online fury. The police said the number of Chinese suspected or involved in crimes tripled from 2016 to 2019, which is about 40% of all cases involving foreign nationals.
    From 2016 to 2018, around 335,800 working visas and special work permits were issued to Chinese, representing over half the total number of permits issued to foreigners.  Current estimates place 200,000 to 400,000 Chinese are working in Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (POGOs), which were established after President Rodrigo Duterte took over the government in 2016.  Currently, there are around 50 POGOs in operation today, mostly operated by Chinese nationals.  POGO revenue substantially increased to P7.35 billion last year from P657 million in 2016.
    But what’s causing the ease for foreigners to acquire work permits is a glaring loophole in the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) system where any of the 3.12 million Chinese “tourists” registered at the Bureau of Immigration (BOI) can convert their tourist visas into working visas as long as they obtain an Alien Employment Permit (AEP).  And while waiting for their AEP, they are issued a Provisional Work Permit (PWP).  So, in a practical sense, any tourist admitted to the country can stay and work without too much of a hassle… provided they pay the “pastillas.”
Chinese invasion
As one resident in Metro Manila had observed: “The Chinese have invaded our islands in the West Philippine Sea and now they’re in my condo!  It’s a home invasion!”
    The home invasion that one Metro Manila resident had observed is just a drop in the ocean since the time when Chinese traders started coming to the archipelago long before it was named Las Islas Filipinas by Spain.  It was just a few drops compared to the bloody invasion by Limahong and his pirates in 1574.  
    But it was a flood compared to the storm that began in 2016 when Duterte opened the floodgate of migration into the country.  Just imagine – it took 900 years for Chinese migration to grow to 1.5 million prior to 2016 and just four years for it to grow by four million!  And now the country is awash in Chinese migration, which has impacted the social, cultural, economic, and ideological fabric of the country.  I’m sure it’s for the betterment of the country, socially, culturally, and economically.  
    A multi-racial society is rich in tradition and culture. But I have reservations whether the ideological calculus is what the freedom-loving Filipino people desire. It’s like mixing oil and water.  By the same token, communism and democracy simply just don’t mix and never will.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)

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The price of leadership

PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz

Barely a few days after being sworn in as Secretary of State, Antony Blinken spoke with counterparts in Asia, the Pacific, and Europe.  The calls included discussions of defense and security in the Indo-Pacific region.  The US has pledged to support her allies in maritime disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea. 
    Indeed, the US is eager to renew her alliances with old allies like Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia with whom the US has treaty obligations to defend against aggression.  The other treaty allies of the US are South Korea and Israel.  In a nutshell, if one of America’s treaty allies is attacked, the US will come to her aid.    
    President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga talked about the defense of the Senkaku Islands while Blinken pledged to support the Philippines in the event of armed attack in the South China Sea (SCS) of which about 80% of the waters is claimed by China.  The area claimed is delineated by the so-called Nine-Dash-Line, which includes most of the Spratly archipelago that the Philippines claimed as her territory.
    Blinken “reaffirmed that a strong US-Philippine alliance is vital to a free and open Indo-Pacific region” in a call to Philippine foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin.  One might ask: Why didn’t Biden call Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte directly?  Well, the relationship between the US and the Philippines is shaky right now considering that Duterte had openly endorsed ex-president Donald Trump during the November 3rd election, the only national leader who did.  However, with Duterte administration coming to an end in 2022, there might be opportunities to re-engage in dialogues on how to reinvigorate the teetering alliance.
Defense of Taiwan
Blinken’s remarks to Southeast Asian allies indicate the hardline stance will continue for the new administration.  And to stress the seriousness of Biden’s commitment, the Pentagon deployed the aircraft carrier battle group led by the USS Theodore Roosevelt to the South China Sea to conduct routine operations  “to ensure freedom of the seas, build partnerships that foster maritime security."  It was also at a time when tensions between China and Taiwan have raised the temperature in the Taiwan Strait.   
    It’s important to note that China vowed to attack Taiwan in 2020.  Well, that was last year and nothing happened.  But the conventional wisdom is that China would invade Taiwan at some point in time.  She is just waiting for the opportune time to do so.  In the event of an attack, the US is obligated by US law to defend Taiwan, which means war will break out!
    U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement the battle group entered the SCS on January 23rd, the same day Taiwan reported a large incursion of Chinese bombers and fighter jets into its air defense identification zone in the vicinity of the Pratas Islands.
    The day before, January 22nd, China authorized her coast guard to fire on foreign vessels and to demolish other countries’ structures built on reefs and islands claimed by China, which by inference includes the Pag-asa Island that is occupied by civilian Filipinos and a marine contingent.  If China proceeds with the destruction of Pag-asa, that would be considered an invasion since Pag-asa is a municipal town of the province of Palawan.  The Philippines could then invoke the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). 
Defense of the Philippines
The question is:  Why is the SCS important to the US that she would defend the Philippines against Chinese aggression?
If China restricts American passage in the SCS, it could cause innumerable damage to U.S.’s trade and economy.  In 2011, $5.3 trillion in trade passed through the SCS, $1.2 trillion of which was tied to the U.S.  About 90% of East Asian energy imports pass through the SCS.  In 2014, the U.S. exported $79 billion in goods to countries around the SCS, and imported $127 billion from them that same year.  It is therefore in the U.S.’s best interest that the SCS should remain open to maritime navigation.
    But the importance of controlling the SCS is that it connects to the Indian Ocean through the Strait of Malacca.  In other words, the country that controls the Strait of Malacca controls the SCS and therefore controls trade that passes through the Strait of Malacca. 
     The US has a strong presence in the Indian Ocean where she has a large naval and air base in the tiny island of Diego Garcia strategically located in the middle of the Indian Ocean.  It is owned by the British Indian Ocean Territory.  In 1971, the UK leased Diego Garcia to the US, which then built a massive air and naval base.  It controls the Indian Ocean in the same way that Guam – a US territory where another air and naval base is strategically located  -- controls the Pacific.  It is amazing how two small islands located in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean have significant roles in the defense of Pax Americana or world peace. 
    On the shoulders of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, a retired four-star general, rest the responsibility of keeping America’s strength in top shape, ready to respond to threats from America’s enemies who constantly attempt to pierce America’s defenses.  For as long as America remains strong under a strong president, America will remain the free world’s leader. 
Insurrection
The US has just survived an insurrection from within.  It was incited by then President Trump who encouraged his supporters to attack the Capitol on January 6th.  The rioters stopped a joint session of Congress, which was convened to count the Electoral College votes.  The National Guard arrived and cleared the Capitol of the rioters.  Six people died during the rioting.  Vice President Mike Pence reconvened the joint session and continued the tabulation of the Electoral College votes.  To Trump’s consternation, Pence declared Biden the winner of the presidential election!
But as Biden was about to take office on January 20th, Trump threatened to declare martial law, arrest Biden, and impose his power upon the American people.  However, the military didn’t support him and in the end he backed off and flew to Mar-a-Lago in exile, a broken man.
    But Trump will remain a thorn on Biden’s back.  With a nation divided, Biden has to grapple with right-wing politics, as Trump will wage guerilla warfare against the Biden administration.  On January 30th Trump called the disgraced congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a QAnon conspiracy theorist, to tell her that he’s supporting her amid calls for her expulsion from Congress.  Greene said that she’ll “never apologize” as she faces backlash over recent controversial comments.  Trump’s call to Greene sends the opening salvo in Trump’s war against the Biden administration.  Trump is back in the game!  Such is the price of leadership.    
    It is my fervent hope that President Biden’s presidency will usher America to new heights and greater glory.  I pray that God gives President Biden the wisdom to lead and protect the American people. Hail to the Chief!  May God bless the United States of America.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)  
 

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Is Trump planning a comeback?

PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz

    With a 21-gun salute, a color guard, marching band, and red carpet, ex-President Donald Trump bade good-bye to a handful of his followers at the tarmac of Joint Base Andrews at about 10 am on January 20, 2020.  Two hours later President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. took his oath of office at the Capitol.   
    But peaceful transition came with a big price!  We almost lost democracy when Trump incited insurrection on January 6, 2021.  A mob encouraged by Trump, attacked the Capitol where lawmakers were debating the Electoral College tabulation.  Within a minute of breaching the door and windows to the Capitol, the mob chanted, “Hang Mike Pence!  Hang Mike Pence!”  Vice President Pence was able to evade the murderous insurrectionists and hid in a secure room.  Outside the Capitol, a makeshift structure with a noose was erected waiting for Pence to be escorted out of the building to meet his death by hanging.  The mob also went from room to room looking for the lawmakers, ready to assassinate them.  By just a few seconds, the revolution that would have overthrown the government of the United States failed to materialize when the rebels failed to locate Pence.
    The National Guard arrived and drove the mob out of the building.  Thus ended an attempt to stage a coup d’état by Trump’s supporters for the purpose of keeping him in power.  Pence assembled the lawmakers back into session and proceeded with the tabulation of the Electoral College votes.  By 3:30 AM, the tabulation was complete with Biden garnering 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232, exactly the same votes that were originally submitted by the 50 states on December 14th.  Pence declared Biden winner of the November 3rd election to the consternation of Trump, who had urged Pence to change the votes and declare Trump re-elected.  But Pence followed the dictate of his conscience and stuck to the results of the Electoral College, which he couldn’t change.
    The events that began on January 6th, was followed a week later by the House of Representatives impeaching Trump.  After a span of two weeks -- for three Wednesdays in a row -- Biden was inaugurated on January 20th.  It will be known as the Three “I’s” – Insurrection, Impeachment, and Inauguration.  These three Wednesdays in January 2021 will long be remembered in U.S. history as the “uncivil war” that almost changed the “government of the people” to a Trump dictatorship that would have ushered in a dynastic autocratic rule of the Trumps.  But the failed attempt only reminded the American people that vigilance couldn’t be taken for granted.  
    It was a reminder that America and her people will answer the clarion call of heroes to come to the aid of Liberty.  It was the determination of the elected lawmakers to not panic and surrender to the rabid mob in the Capitol’s gallery who thirsted for blood.  
    Had the lawmakers come out of their hiding places and raised their hands in surrender, they would have been massacred to the last person without mercy.  It would have ignited the Second American Civil War!  States will take sides just like it was in 1861 when seven states seceded to form the Confederate States of America (CSA), which advocated states’ rights to uphold slavery. 
Second Civil War
But the Second Civil War wouldn’t be about slavery, it would have been due to the cultic power of Trump, who had held the blind obedience of 70 million Americans who professed their loyalty to him – right or wrong – as was demonstrated by the Capitol mob, ready to die for him.  They came from all over the U.S. Yes; it was sheer idolatry that had mesmerized them into submission.
    Trump had a Hitler-like power that kept his followers in line.  During the 2016 presidential election, Trump boasted that his campaign would not decline even if he shot someone in the middle of a crowded street.  “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,” Trump said at a campaign rally.
    While Hitler had an army of storm troopers who were ready to die for him, Trump had 88 million Tweeter followers who received tweets in the wee hours of the morning.  They would tune in to his tweets ready to start the day with Trump’s orders.  
    But luck finally ran out on Trump when Tweeter, Facebook, and Instagram suspended his accounts permanently for spreading misinformation.  In effect, that stopped him from communicating with his followers.  And without his daily tweets – that sometimes numbered more than a hundred a day – his mouthpiece was silenced… permanently.  
    Suddenly, his followers were no longer receiving orders and benediction from the High Priest of Hate.  By de-platforming Trump’s social media accounts, it stopped his attempts to spread lies and misinformation.   
    After the January 6th riot, Trump lost the ability to communicate with his followers.  Suddenly, the social media platforms went dark.  No more tweets, no more messages to tens of millions of his followers.  Like zombies, they were lost in the wilderness of mindless devotion.
    On January 12th, the nation’s top military commanders condemned the January 6th’s acts of “sedition and insurrection” at the U.S. Capitol and acknowledged Biden’s victory.
    On January 15th, Mike Lindell, the “My Pillow Guy,” visited Trump in the Oval Office.  It was a well-publicized visit.  After he left the office, he was photographed outside carrying notes about using “martial law if necessary,” “Insurrection Act now,” and “Move Kash Patel to CIA Director.” (Patel is a Trump loyalist.)
    In a video filmed after the insurrection, Lindell told Fox 9 in Minnesota, “This is a fight for everything we’ve grown up with, everything we live for, everything this country stands for. The whole world is watching, and 100%, Donald Trump is going to be your president for the next four years.” 
    Indeed, up to the final days of his presidency, Trump was still thinking of ways of how to prevent Biden from being sworn in as president!  He was about to declare martial law!  But the military’s acknowledgment of Biden’s victory threw out any attempt to install Trump in a military-backed coup.  Trump saw his reign disintegrating; it’s time for him to step down.
Farewell address
On January 19th, Trump delivered his farewell address at the White House.  It lasted 18 minutes.  Once again and for the last time during his presidency, he repeated a litany of achievements – all spoken in the superlatives – that would only become boringly repetitive to say it here.  
    So let me just say those that are new.  He began his speech, saying, “This week we inaugurate a new administration and pray for its success in keeping America safe and prosperous. We extend our best wishes, and we also want them to have luck, a very important word.” 
    Towards the end, he said: “Now, as I leave the White House, I have been reflecting on the dangers that threaten the priceless inheritance we all share. As the world’s most powerful nation, America faces constant threats and challenges from abroad. But the greatest danger we face is a loss of confidence in ourselves, a loss of confidence in our national greatness. A nation is only as strong as its spirit.”
    In conclusion he said, “Now, as I prepare to hand power over to a new administration at noon on Wednesday, I want you to know that the movement we started is only just beginning. There’s never been anything like it…”
    “I go from this majestic place with a loyal and joyful heart, an optimistic spirit, and a supreme confidence that for our country and for our children, the best is yet to come. Thank you and farewell. God bless you. God bless the United States of America.”
    Two things that struck my mind was when Trump said,  “I want you to know that the movement we started is only just beginning.”  The other one was when he said, “The best is yet to come.”  Yes, after what Trump had done to bring the country down, there could only be one way to go, “Up!”
    We all know that he was thinking of a comeback in 2024, after Biden’s first term.  With that in mind, it is presumed that he would remain a voice in the Republican wilderness.  But without his mouthpieces, like Tweeter and Facebook, how is he going to reach out to his followers?  
    He has to remember that there are other Republicans who would like to run for president like Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri.   All in all, there would probably be a dozen wannabe presidents running in 2024.  But Trump beat them all in 2016.  Can he repeat his success?  If the 2020 election were a harbinger of his future in politics, I’d take a pessimistic view.
    At the end of the day, the question is:  How loyal are Trump’s supporters?  Are they still under the cultic spell of Trump?  And finally, is Trump seriously planning a comeback?
    Yesterday, I received an email from a Trumpist friend of mine.  He said, “Trump will come back in the future.  If not sooner.”     Well, all I can say is: “That’s an optimistic view that came out of a pessimistic event.  Good luck.”
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)

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Trump’s fate is at the mercy of the Senate

PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz

As I am writing this column, President Donald Trump has only two days left in his presidency.  Then he will go into retirement.  It must be hard for him to accept that he would be a one-term president being defeated by President-elect Joe Biden by a stunning eight million votes!  Yet he claims that he was cheated.  He claims that he won the election with millions more votes.      And to the very end he believes that Biden committed election fraud.  He filed more than 60 lawsuits in at least five states but the courts dismissed his lawsuits as baseless and without merit.  Even the Supreme Court dismissed two cases by unanimous vote of the justices, three of whom were his appointees. 
    He still believes that he will be president on January 20, 2021.  He believes that the American people will not allow Biden to be sworn into office.  And by all accounts, he is bent on pursuing the presidency even after Biden is inaugurated. How is he going to do it?  Is he planning to declare martial law and have Biden arrested?
    Meanwhile, there are strange chatters in the Internet by Pro-Trump supporters.  One supporter said two days ago, “The good news!  Biden’s inauguration postponed!  Excellent!  Biden oath taking will never happen!  President Trump will continue as president indefinitely!  Wonderful! He’s the chosen one!  He’ll prevail!”  So I asked the supporter, “where did you get the information?”  He replied, “It’s the sharing of information about Pro-Trump!  Some actions have been executed but the official announcement could be a few days!”  I said, “Let’s see what happens.  You mean to say that Trump will take over the presidency on Jan. 20?  That would be a coup.” Then he said, “I don’t know!  But the government will be under military control!”  Whoa!  Is this what Trump’s supporters believe?  A martial law?  The question is:  Would the military support a declaration of martial law?  I doubt it.
Rumors abound
I did my research and found an article that says, “Joe Biden postpones inauguration rehearsal over security threat as FBI warns of ‘concerning chatter’ after Capitol riot.”  It’s so easy to drop the word “rehearsal” from the sentence and totally change its meaning.  But this is the kind of chatter among Pro-Trump supporters that would give the impression that Biden has “postponed his inauguration.”  And pretty soon the word is out that Trump will stay as president indefinitely.  But nevertheless, it would be prudent for Biden to watch out for turbulence.  Last Friday, a Virginia man with fake inaugural credentials, a loaded handgun and more than 500 rounds of ammunition was busted while trying to pass through a U.S. Capitol Police checkpoint in downtown Washington. 
        Indeed, there have been rumors that Trump supporters – heavily armed militias – will converge on January 17th at the Capitol to finish what they started on January 6th  – the overthrow of the government… a coup d’état. 
Trump’s mob
While it is our fervent hope that Trump will go into retirement quietly, I don’t think he’d retire.  To the very end of his presidency, Trump truly believes that he’s been cheated in the election.  And that’s probably the reason why on Jan. 6, 2020, he tried one more time to lay claim to the presidency by inciting the large mob that had gathered in front of the White House. 
He urged them to march down Pennsylvania Avenue to the Capitol 1.5 miles away.  He told them he’d lead the march.  But he didn’t.  But his supporters have been unleashed just like a genie out of the bottle.  Well, what happened Donald, did you decide to play golf instead of leading your supporters to lay siege on the Capitol? 
    But without Trump leading them  -- they’re now on auto-pilot – the mob forced their way into the Capitol breaking window glasses and breaking down the doors.  Overwhelmed, the Capitol Police were overpowered.  And the mob went looking for lawmakers who gathered in a joint session to certify the Electoral Colleges votes. 
    Vice President Mike Pence who was presiding over the joint session was surprised when the mob started chanting “Hang Mike Pence!  Hang Mike Pence!”  Pence and his family ran and hid in a secure room.  He managed to evade the mob by a few seconds; otherwise, he would have been hurt by the mob.  Other legislators ran for their dear lives.  Fortunately, none of them were caught; otherwise, it could have ended in a bloody massacre.
    At around 11:00 PM, after the National Guard -- who arrived in the nick of time -- had cleared the Capitol of rioters. The legislators assembled again to finish their business of certifying the Electoral College votes.  It was past 3:30 AM when the certification was complete.
    Hats off to Pence for his statesmanship in seeing to it that the certification would be complete that evening.  But that didn’t make Trump happy.  The whole idea of inciting the insurrection was to stop the certification process.  And Pence finished the certification to Trump’s consternation. 
Second impeachment
On January 13th, the House of Representatives voted to impeach Trump for the second time during his presidency.  The lawmakers voted 232 to 197 to approve a single charge of “incitement of insurrection” for his role in encouraging a violent mob on January 6th.  Ten Republicans joined the Democrats in voting against Trump.
    Trump denounced the impeachment as part of the “witch hunt” against him.  What follows is a Senate trial that requires a 2/3-majority vote, which is tough considering that the 50 Republican senators were mostly beholden to Trump.  But who knows, 17 of them could be persuaded to break rank with Trump.  However, if many Republicans would choose not to attend the Senate impeachment hearing, it would drastically decrease the number required to achieve 2/3-majority. 
    On January 17th, Washington DC looked like a war zone with more than 25,000 National Guard personnel deployed around the White House, the Capitol and other government buildings. 
    Seventeen other State Capitols have National Guardsmen deployed.  Other states have taken precaution to protect their Capitols with local police and law enforcement personnel.  The FBI assigned thousands of agents in various states.  America is at war!  And the enemies are from within.  At the end of the day, the militias – except for a few armed men – didn’t show up.  But that’s not an indication that they’ve withdrawn.  They will be around and show up when the government lets its guard down.  The Biden administration has to be vigilant and be ready to defend the Constitution again.    
    The Senate is expected to reconvene on January 19th.  However, with the election of two Democrats from Georgia, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, the number of Democrats in the Senate increased to 50, thus splitting the Senate 50-50.  The Senate President will be the incoming Vice President Kamala Harris, who would be a tie-breaker in the event the Senate vote is deadlocked.  Sen. Chuck Schumer will become the new Majority Leader at which time the Democrats would have full control of both houses of Congress.
Inglorious end
Trump has laid out an elaborate grand exit.  On the morning of January 20th, just before noon, Trump will be flown in the Marine One helicopter to Andrews Air Force Base where the presidential plane, Air Force One, will be waiting for him.              Complete with a Color Guard and a military band, Trump will walk down a red carpet to review the Color Guard.  And then a 21-gun salute will be fired before he goes up the plane. 
    Upon reaching the top of the steps, Trump will turn around to face the gathered crowd of mostly media people.  He’ll wave for posterity and then enters the cabin, never to be seen again until he arrives in Mar-A-Lago as a private citizen.  Thus, the reign of Donald Trump will come to an inglorious end.
    Meanwhile, back at the White House, the swearing-in of President Biden will begin at 12:01 p.m.  Barring disturbances created by Trump’s supporters, Biden will take his oath of office after which a military aide will signal him that he has the nuclear football, a different version of what Trump had during his presidency. 
    Trump’s nuclear football, which he had with him on Air Force One, will be deactivated at exactly 12:01 PM, the precise time when Biden’s nuclear football would be activated, ready for use by him.  The nuclear football is a briefcase, the contents of which are to be used by the president to authorize a nuclear attack. The transfer of nuclear power will then be complete, a fait accompli. And upon Biden’s shoulder would fall the heavy burden of leadership, which he carries 24/7 every day during his presidency.
     With the election of Biden as president and the Democrats’ takeover of the Senate, Biden will have a powerful bloc that would support his progressive agenda.  And with Trump thrown into political oblivion, one wonders what would be his fate? 
With 29% approval rating after the January 6th fiasco, Trump’s future is in limbo with a slim chance of recovery.  And if the Senate convicts him, he’d be banned to run for office again for the rest of his life.  Gone will be his presidential pension, secret service security detail, travel allowances, and other benefits.  He might not even get a presidential library. He will go into retirement in shame.
    Indeed, Trump’s fate would be at the mercy of the Senate.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)

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Should Trump be impeached?

PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz

In three days, three events occurred that changed the political landscape of the U.S. for the next two or four years, or perhaps, for decades to come.  On January 5, the state of Georgia – long a Republican bastion – elected two Democrats to replace two Republican senators.  Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff defeated Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue to fill their Senate seats. The two new senators will take their oath between January 15 and January 22, 2021 upon certification of their elections by the State of Georgia. 
    When that happens, the Senate’s 100 seats will be divided evenly, 50 Democrats -- which includes two independents, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Maine Sen. Angus King, who caucus with the Democrats --  and 50 Republicans.  It would then require Vice President Kamala Harris acting as Senate President to be the tie-breaker in the event that the Senate is split in half when voting on a legislative bill.  
    Because the Democrats will have a numerical majority of one vote, the majority floor leader will go to a Democrat, Sen. Chuck Schumer, who is currently the minority floor leader.  And what will happen to the current majority floor leader, Sen. Mitch McConnell?  
    Well, he has to step down and take the place of minority floor leader, basically a powerless position.  That would be big fall for McConnell who had for so long held up the passage of legislative bills that Democrats have filed, which is more than 400 bills since 2016 when Trump took over the presidency.  Now it’s Schumer who will have the same power that McConnell had.     
    Warnock makes history as the first Black senator to ever represent the state.  He’s just the 11th Black senator in history.  He’s also the first Black Democratic senator from the South since Reconstruction and only the second overall.  (South Carolina’s Tim Scott, a Republican, is the other.)
    Prior to the joint session, Trump called Vice-President Mike Pence, who was going to preside as Senate President during the joint session on January 6 for the purpose of counting the Electoral College votes.  The president pressured him to make sure that the votes counted would favor him instead of Biden.  
    But Pence told Trump that only lawmakers could decide whether to accept or reject the Electoral College votes won by Biden.  Trump told Pence that he could change the votes, which is false.  Trump in a tweet rebuked Pence, saying: "Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution.  
Siege of Congress
    On January 6, Trump standing behind a podium in front of his supporters, who gathered on Capitol Hill, exhorted them to march to the Capitol Building.  In the ensuing hours, the chanting mob – which had grown to thousands -- attacked the Capitol and managed to gain entry while the security police merely watched them go inside the building.  
    As it turned out, it became an attempted coup d’etat or was it pre-planned all along?  I believe it has always been planned to take over the Legislature, and with the Executive Branch already in the hands of Trump, the takeover of the government would be a fait accompli.  The mob chanted “Hang Mike Pence!”
    Trump claimed that he deployed the National Guard “immediately,” which was a lie; the National Guard did not arrive until past 5:00 PM.  Officers were filmed taking selfies with rioters and appearing to help them move back barricades and open doors.  It was evident then that the Capitol Police was in cahoots with the rioters.  They even directed them to the office of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. 
     While the rioters were entering the building, Pence adjourned the joint session, which was in the midst of counting the Electoral College votes.  Pence was rushed out of the building.  Senate aides were able to grab the boxes containing the Electoral College certificates as lawmakers evacuated the building.  The lawmakers scrambled out of the building, running for dear life.  The rioters had a heyday ransacking the lawmakers’ offices as the security officers watched the carnage, some of which were seen shaking hands with the rioters.
    The National Guard eventually arrived in several buses at sundown.  But it was too late.  The damage was done.  During the siege, security forces discovered a truck near the Capitol containing bombs and other explosives. Evidently, the attempted coup failed.
Electoral College votes
At past 11:00 PM, the joint session resumed with the counting.  By 3:35 AM, the counting was completed and Pence read the results, which was 306 for Biden and 232 for Trump.  Pence then declared Joe Biden elected as president and Kamala Harris as vice president.  It’s the culmination of a series of events that almost stopped the counting process. 
    I must say that Pence did a great job in certifying the electoral votes.  There were apprehensions that he would block or change votes in the states that were challenged by “objectors” led by Sen. Ted Cruz and Congressman Josh Hawley, both Republicans. 
    The following day, Trump conceded the 2020 election and called for “healing and reconciliation,” which reminded me of when Nelson Mandela, South Africa’s newly elected president in 1994, formed a commission to bring together the people – blacks and whites together – under a post-apartheid government.  
    Well, President Trump, after what you have done for the past four years dividing the American people, you don’t have any legitimate claim to lead the healing and reconciling the people and the country.  You’re way past midnight, sir. The mob that you unleashed resulted in the death of five Americans and dozens of injured. It was heinous and despicable to say the least. 
    But true to his self-serving style, he said he was “outraged” by it.  And he has the nerve to say, “The demonstrators who infiltrated the Capitol had defiled the seat of American democracy. To those who engaged in the acts of violence and destruction, you do not represent our country. And to those who broke the law, you will pay.”  Huh?
Trump concedes
Well, Mr. President, do you realize that it was you who instigated the insurrection?  It was you who commanded your supporters to lay siege on the Capitol?   You should take the blame for the five Americans who died.  You should take responsibility for the damage to the Capitol and surrounding property.  And you should apologize to the American people for bringing shame on the U.S. government in the face of world condemnation for a dastardly act of self-destruction.  Shame on you, Mr. President.
    And finally, Trump conceded, “a new administration will be inaugurated on January 20th. My focus now turns to ensuring a smooth, orderly and seamless transition of power.”
    Then came the social media’s reaction to Trump’s assault on the Capitol.  Facebook and Instagram took steps of banning Trump indefinitely.  On Friday, Twitter followed suit by permanently banning Trump from using its platform. 
    With these social media going dark on Trump, he’s now left with nothing to tell the whole world what’s in his mind, which basically can be classified as “garbage.”  Like they said, “Garbage in, garbage out.”
    What follows next would determine Trump’s political future.  Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that she would file a privileged resolution in the House of Representatives to impeach Trump for “Incitement of Insurrection.”
    Pelosi said that Trump could go either by resignation, invocation of the 25th Amendment or by impeachment.  Since Trump refused to resign, the 25th Amendment is viable only if Vice-President Pence and at least half of the Cabinet members would agree to remove Trump.  However, Pence balked at invoking the 25th Amendment, which leaves Pelosi with impeachment as last resort. 
    Pelosi has circulated the draft of the impeachment resolution and was able to get 180 co-sponsors.  Pelosi plans to file the resolution on January 11 and would put a vote on it on January 13, where it is expected to pass.
    The big challenge is in the Senate where 2/3 of those present are required to pass it.  That means 67 senators are required if all 100 senators are present.  The question is: Can the Democrats convince their Republican counterparts to vote for impeachment?    
    While Trump’s impeachment would not affect the political landscape at the moment, it has far-reaching implications in the future of Trump after he leaves office.  For one thing, if Trump were impeached, he would be disqualified from running for office in the future.  He wouldn’t even qualify to run for dog catcher.  He would also lose a lot of perks including secret service protection. 
    However, if he resigns, he’s eligible to run for president in 2024.  If I were Trump, I would resign.  He could then devote the next four years to rebuilding his base.  It would also be the honorable thing to do, that is, if he knows what “honorable” means. 
    At the end of the day, the question that lingers in my mind is:  Should Trump be impeached even after his term ends on January 20?
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
 
 
 
 

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New year, new era of change

 PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz

As we bid the year 2020 goodbye with a sigh of relief knowing that 2021 can’t be worse than 2020, my apprehension remains the same.  With more than 20 million cases of COVID-19 and more than 350,000 deaths and adding 3,000 every day to the death toll, I wonder when will this plague ever end?  For one thing, with the departure of President Donald J. Trump on January 20, things will change for the better.
    President-elect Joe Biden’s ascension to the presidency is already making a lot of people happy at the way he selected his cabinet members and other high-ranking officials.  Thus far, he has nominated African-Americans, women, Latinos, Asian Americans, a Native American, and LGBT members to run his administration.  Indeed, the incoming administration is going to reflect what America is made of, a multi-racial and multi-cultural conglomeration of people. 
    Among the nominees are people committed to climate change, starting with former Secretary of State John Kerry whom Biden nominated to a newly created cabinet position, Special Presidential Envoy for Climate with authority over energy policy and climate policy.  He will be known as the “climate czar,” who will be responsible for climate change issues and to addressing the climate crisis as one affecting national security.   Indeed, Kerry would be one of Biden’s most important appointees, as he will devote his time to reversing the damage that Trump has done to climate change.
Climate Change
It’s a known fact that Trump does not believe in climate change and global warming, which is causing a lot of environmental damage.  In particular, the thawing of the Arctic and Antarctic poles would cause the sea level to rise 200 feet and coastal cities will be submerged in water. Global warming occurs when carbon dioxide (CO2) and other air pollutants and greenhouse gases collect in the atmosphere and absorb sunlight and solar radiation that have bounced off the earth's surface.
    Burning of fossil fuels to make electricity is the largest source of heat-trapping pollution, producing about two billion tons of CO2 every year.  
    Coal-burning power plants are by far the biggest polluters.  Which reminds me of what Trump said when he was elected to the White House in 2016.  He pledged to revive a US coal industry that was in seemingly terminal decline due to his predecessor Barack Obama’s stringent regulations on fossil fuels.  
    “If I win,” he said, “we’re going to bring those miners back to work – you’re going to be so proud of your president and your country.”  To make sure the world knew what he was up to, he withdrew the U.S. participation from the Paris Accord in 2017. Number one on Trump’s agenda was to roll back on Obama’s Clean Power Plan (CPP).  
    But Trump was rebuffed by state, business, and local leaders who pledged to honor and uphold the goals of the Paris Accord. More than 25 cities in 17 states, with populations totaling more than 5 million adopted resolutions that would enable them to get 100 percent of their electricity from renewable sources like wind and solar.
Transportation electrification
    The country’s second-largest source of carbon pollution is the transportation sector, which generates about 1.7 billion tons of CO2 emissions a year.  While the U.S. is advancing towards transportation electrification, it is still many years away from total electrification. 
    Many car manufacturers are now producing electric cars.  Foremost is Tesla who has reached its goal of producing 500,000 in 2020.  One thing about electric cars is that they don’t have an engine and they run with no gasoline.  
Owners only need to plug their vehicles to an ordinary electric outlet at home to charge it.  So it saves on fuel cost and engine maintenance.  That’s roughly $20,000 savings every year per car. And it’s free from pollution and CO2 emissions, which lowers global warming and eventually saves Planet Earth from the ill effects of global warming and climate change.  Indeed, Climate Czar Kerry has a very important role in the Earth’s future.  
Pandemic
The biggest challenge to President-elect Biden is how to contain the Covid-19 virus, which right now doesn’t seem to go away.  While vaccines have already been developed, the challenge is how fast the Biden administration can stop the virus’ spread.  
    By the end of 2020, only three million Americans were vaccinated.  Trump promised 20 million Americans would be vaccinated by the end of 2020.  At the ongoing rate it would take 10 years to vaccinate 330 million Americans. 
    But Biden set a goal of vaccinating 100 million Americans in 100 days.  Can he do it?  If he could do it, it would mean that all Americans would be vaccinated by the end of 2022 considering that it would take two doses to vaccinate every American.  And how many more Americans would die?
    But deaths can be mitigated only if Americans would follow CDC guidelines such as wearing masks, social distancing, and washing hands.  It’s sad that Trump did not encourage wearing masks and social distancing by constantly avoiding wearing mask himself and holding rallies where people were packed in close quarters.   
    He believes that wearing a mask is a sign of weakness.  I disagree.  I believe that wearing a mask is a courageous act and it saves lives.  Is it then fair to presume that Trump as the nation’s leader has caused his supporters not to wear masks?  That’s irresponsible leadership.
    But the most dangerous moment would be what Trump is going to do in the next three weeks of his lame duck presidency.  Last January 1, he said that he would never concede.  Sounds like it’s his New Year’s resolution.
    Which makes one wonder:  What is he going to do?  Is he going to barricade himself in the Oval Office when Biden is inaugurated?  With his state of mind bordering on paranoia and insanity, he could do stupid things like invoking the Insurrection Act and declaring martial law.  He’d throw the country into chaos.
Steal electoral votes
On Jan. 2, the Washington Post obtained a recording of a conversation in which Trump berated fellow Republican Georgia Secretary State Brad Raffensperger to “find” enough votes to overturn his defeat in an extraordinary one-hour phone call.  
Trump told Raffensperger: “So look. All I want to do is this. I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have [Biden got 11,799 votes]. Because we won the state.”  
    But even if Reffensperger agreed to “doctor” Trump’s vote, Biden would only lose 16 electoral votes, which is not enough for Trump to win the presidency.  Trump needs Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia to win the Electoral College vote to offset Biden’s 306 electoral over Trump’s 232 votes.   
    The news report said, “The rambling and at times incoherent conversation offered a remarkable glimpse of how consumed and desperate the president remains about his loss, unwilling or unable to let the matter go and still believing he can reverse the results in enough battleground states to remain in office.”
    “There’s no way I lost Georgia,” Trump said, a phrase he repeated again and again on the call. “There’s no way. We won by hundreds of thousands of votes.”
    Trump’s pressure on Raffensperger is the latest example of his attempt to subvert the outcome of the election through personal outreach to state Republican officials. He previously invited Michigan Republican state leaders to the White House and pressured Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp in a call to try to replace Georgia’s electors.  He also asked the Republican Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives to help reverse his loss in that state.  He failed to steal the election.
    Obviously, Trump has flown over the cuckoo’s nest in his attempt to hold on to power by any means – by hook or by crook -- including what many believe are criminally motivated.   
    I fervently hope that Trump’s final days will end in a peaceful transition of power.  The American people have suffered enough in 2020.  I must say, “good riddance.”  I wish him the best in his retirement from public office.   And I welcome the New Year and the coming era of change under President-elect Biden.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)

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