PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz
It is said that when
the bully in the neighborhood is harassing you, you seek the aid of a bigger
bully. And that’s precisely what Japan did who is being harassed by China
over the Senkaku Islands, an unpopulated group of islets in the East China Sea.
Both countries claim ownership of the Senkakus but Japan has administrative
control over them.
In November 2013,
China declared an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) covering most of the
East China Sea, which restricts air traffic over the area. Japan refused
to recognize the ADIZ and continued to fly over the islands.
With Chinese warships
sailing around and aircraft flying by the islands, Japan was constantly on
guard, scrambling her fighter jets each time Chinese aircraft approach the
islands.
In April 2015, the
U.S. and Japan finalized a new set of defense guidelines for bilateral defense
cooperation and envisioning a more global role for their alliance.
As reported in the
Defense News, “The new guidelines take into consideration Japan’s revised
defense posture, including the Abe government’s decision to reinterpret a
constitutional provision to allow for Japanese participation in collective
self-defense.” “The changes reflect Japan’s worries over China’s rise and
enduring concerns over North Korea’s nuclear program,” the report said.
Security partnership
Recently, the U.S. and
Japan have increased the amount of real-world operations conducted together to
further strengthen their partnership. This includes developing an
integrated air and missile defense network to deal with the growing threat of
hostile ballistic missile activity in the region.
As the two nations
conduct joint operations more frequently, China is put on notice that a newly
revised U.S.-Japan defense pact is ready to face China if China attempts to
change the status quo in the East and South China Seas.
But as both the U.S.
and Japan know it, China’s ultimate goal is to break out into the Western
Pacific by way of the Miyako Strait (between Japan and Taiwan) or Bashi Channel
(between Taiwan and Batanes Island). These two waterways are the weakest
points in the First Island Chain that links Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines,
Borneo, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
If China penetrates
these waterways, she’d be able to project naval power in the Western
Pacific. However, without a forward operating base in the Philippine Sea,
China would have difficulty in providing logistical support to maintain
permanent presence in the Western Pacific.
But once China breaks
out into the Philippine Sea, she would be able to deploy her growing fleet of
ballistic missile submarines within striking distance of American territory,
including the full length of the U.S. West Coast, from Alaska down to
California. The specter of Chinese missiles raining down on the West
Coast is making America’s defense planners nervous.
Interceptors
Right now, the only
defense the U.S. has against missile attacks on the West Coast is the
Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD). It is a major component of
America’s missile defense strategy to counter incoming ballistic
missiles. Known as “interceptors,” 40 of these missiles are based at Fort
Greely, Alaska and another four at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.
Formidable as it might
seem, the GMD is the “last line” of defense to protect America from missile
attacks. However, any defense planner would conclude that this “last
line” of defense should never come to use; the incoming enemy missiles should
be stopped at the First Island Chain, which is much closer to China.
And this is where the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system comes
into play.
THAAD provides the
critical capability to defend against short and medium range ballistic
missiles. In other words, THAAD could defend America and her Asia-Pacific
allies by installing it as close as possible to potential adversaries,
particularly China and North Korea.
With THAAD already
installed and operational in Guam, it would soon be installed in South Korea
before the end of 2017. Japan is also considering purchasing THAAD and so
does Taiwan.
For this reason, China
is building ballistic missile submarines round the clock. She’s also
building two or more aircraft carriers in addition to the one that is already
deployed to the East China Sea.
With the ultimate goal
of projecting blue water naval power in the Western Pacific, China’s problem is
how to provide logistical support to her naval assets. Wouldn’t it be
ideal for China to take control of the undefended Bashi Channel and establish
logistical support bases on the west side of Luzon facing the Philippine
Sea?
Flirting with China
Indeed, the prospect
of having Chinese naval bases in western Luzon must be in the Chinese military
planners’ minds. And this begs the question: What does it take for China
to bring the Philippines to her side? Sad to say, with the current
President Rodrigo Duterte flirting with China and threatening to terminate the
Philippines’ defense agreements with the U.S., China might not even have to
fire a shot to turn the country into a vassal state… or territory.
Just a few weeks ago,
Duterte threatened to declare martial law and form a revolutionary government,
presumably with the aid of the local communist movement that includes the
Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), National Democratic Front (NDF), and
New People’s Army (NPA).
Abe-Duterte
understanding
But something happened
that changed the dynamics. Last January 12-13, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe visited the Philippines at a time when Duterte was contemplating an
alliance with China and Russia. But Abe’s visit changed all that.
The two leaders signed
various memoranda of agreement on economic and defense assistance including
agriculture, transportation, small and medium enterprise, infrastructure,
counter-terrorism, drug-rehabilitation projects, and security
cooperation.
Abe also promised to
give the Philippines $8.66 billion (1 trillion yen) in aid, which would be
spread over five years. However, Abe emphasized the significance of
enhancing cooperation between Japan, the U.S., and the Philippines.
Duterte then acknowledged the importance of the Philippines’ alliance with the
U.S.
He also assured Abe
that he did not enter into a military alliance with China and that he would
insist on the rule of law in the South China Sea. Abe agreed that the
role of the U.S. remains vital for stability in the region and that the
territorial disputes in the South China Sea should be resolved under the rule
of law.
Recently, newly
inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump said “it might not be such a bad thing
if South Korea and Japan were to develop their own nuclear weapons in
self-defense.” Japan might just take on Trump’s suggestion. After
all, she has the capability to produce nuclear weapons on her own.
In an editorial I
wrote on January12, 2016, I said: “What is interesting to note is that Japan,
who doesn’t possess nuclear weapons at this time, could produce them if she
wanted to. She has 47 metric tons of weapons-usable plutonium, which is enough
to make nearly 6,000 warheads like the one the U.S. dropped on Nagasaki.
This huge cache was
the by-product from reprocessing of spent uranium and plutonium used in Japan’s
nuclear plants, which makes one wonder: Would Japan make nuclear warheads and
use them if she were threatened with nuclear extinction by North Korea [or
China]?”
In the final analysis,
what we’re seeing today is a seamless fusion of the most potent security
partnership between the U.S. and Japan. Seeing the two former World War
II enemies forge a unified force to maintain the status quo in the region goes
far beyond the wildest expectations of the geopolitical crystal-ballers.
Yes, the U.S. and Japan will be the powerhouse in the Pacific for years to
come. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
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