PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz
Cha-cha: Train to Nowhere

The recent coup that ousted Sen. Manny Villar from the presidency of the Senate and installed Juan Ponce Enrile -- President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's top political ally in the Senate -- took a sudden turn of events when Gloria's son, Juan Miguel "Mikey" Arroyo, made a preemptory move to get the Charter change (Cha-cha) moving again with a House Resolution to convene a Constituent Assembly.

But to Gloria's surprise, her followers in the Senate -- including Enrile -- balked at the idea of Cha-cha prior to 2010. She should know better that the Philippine Senate -- just like Julius Caesar's Roman Senate two millennia ago -- doesn't pander to dictators.

Emotions have been running high in the days following the Senate coup. Gloria's son, Congressman Mikey Arroyo, was in flurry getting signatures from members of the House of Representatives to support constitutional amendment through a constituent assembly (Con-Ass) which is authored by Congressman Luis Villafuerte, KAMPI President and a close ally of Gloria. Within a few days, Mikey has gathered the signatures of 163 out of the 238 members of the Lower House. At first Mikey denied leading the signature drive but eventually he admitted it when several congressmen pointed their finger at him.

It is interesting to note that Mikey and his younger brother, Congressman Diosdado "Dato" Arroyo, were perceived as their mom's "enforcers" in the Lower House. They're known by their colleagues as the real "Speakers" of the House. And who would dare buck the First Sons? Their mom holds the key to the congressmen' s pork barrel funds. She's the goose that lays the golden eggs. One of the rules in politics is the Golden Rule -- he or she who has the gold rules.

To pass a constitutional amendment through Con-Ass, a three-fourth majority vote is required of both chambers of Congress. However, there are conflicting interpretations of what constitutes "three-fourth majority vote." Is it three-fourths of the combined membership of the House of Representatives (238) and the Senate (24) or three-fourths of each chamber voting separately?

If the Senate succumbed to the "tyranny" of the House, then it's a done deal: a Con-Ass will move forward, unhindered, to amend the constitution any which way the House leadership wants. However, if the majority of the senators would reject the notion of a combined three-fourth majority vote of both chambers, then the proponents of Con-Ass would have go to the Supreme Court for an interpretation of the constitution.

Given the current make-up of the Supreme Court -- with at least nine of the 15 justices perceived to be pro-Gloria -- the House Con-Ass resolution would prevail; thus, relegating the Senate to an inutile polyp-like adjunct of the House. However, should the High Court upholds the independence of the Senate making it a co-equal to the House, Gloria could wait until next year when at least seven Supreme Court justices are retiring. At that time, she will have a grand opportunity to stack the High Court with political hacks. And by that time, Gloria would wield near-absolute dictatorial powers -- swift and bloodless.

But that scenario is predicated on what the Senate would do today. If the Senate would abdicate its role as 'fiscalizer" of the Executive Branch, then all is lost -- Gloria will reign beyond 2010 and could propagate her family dynasty for many generations to come. Remember, Gloria is already the second president in the Macapagal bloodline.

The question is: will the people accept another dictatorial rule, almost a quarter-century after the Marcos dictatorship was dismantled by the People Power Revolution of 1986? Ironically, the newly installed Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile -- an ardent loyalist of Gloria -- was the one who led the 1986 revolution. Now that Enrile is the Senate President, he is caught between his loyalty to Gloria and his sworn duty to protect the sanctity and independence of the Senate.

Enrile's initial reaction -- broadcasted over DwIZ -- to the House Con-Ass resolution was: "I will tell you I will resist any effort on the part of anybody to make the Senate inutile as a junk of the House of Representatives. For me, whether it is term extension or no term extension, it is almost an impossible dream to bring about any constitutional change at this time." He said that "almost all of the 23 sitting senators were against it."

However, it is anticipated that Gloria's henchmen are going to put a lot of pressure on Enrile. Would he be able to resist them? It's interesting to note that in November 2006, Enrile filed Senate Resolution 580 calling for a Con-Ass in the Senate to counter a House Resolution that would leave the Senate completely out of a Con-Ass. Enrile said at that time that the Senate and the House should vote separately.

It remains to be seen if Enrile would sacrifice his principle for political convenience and… survival. But he is a survivor many times over and at this time -- in the golden years of his life -- he might just pull one more attempt to challenge a formidable and entrenched political machine. Can he unify and marshal the forces of the Senate to dig in and -- in the words of Senator Aquilino Pimentel Jr. -- "man Tirad Pass again"?

But it is the ominous words of rookie Senator Francis Pangilinan that have drawn the attention of many people: "If they think the people will eat any garbage they offer, they are wrong. This will spark an uprising against the Arroyo government." And he warned, "they should never underestimate the awesome power of the disenchanted people, who have had enough of bankrupt leadership and governance." Indeed, the biggest threat to Gloria is when her "Enchanted Kingdom" turns into a "Disenchanted Kingdom."

It is sad that amidst the economic turbulence that is besieging the country today, Gloria's unquenchable thirst for power and wealth continues to take its toll on the people. And if there is one lesson Gloria has to learn: history tends to repeat itself when certain conditions begin to happen. Déjà vu. -- (PerryDiaz@gmail. com)