PERRYSCOPE

Perry Diaz
Gloria’s Gambit

It seems to me that Charter change (Cha-cha) is going nowhere in the House of Representatives because of the infighting between President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s henchmen Speaker Prospero Nograles and Congressman Luis Villafuerte. They’re the respective leaders of Lakas and Kampi which will soon merge under a new name: Lakas-Kampi- CMD. The merger would boost Gloria’s control of the House of Representatives after the 2010 elections assuming that she would still wield power in her party after she steps down from the presidency. But the prospect of losing power is something that would be horrifying to Gloria. I wouldn’t be surprised if she already has a plan on how to stay in power beyond 2010. And if she does, we can only speculate at this early stage in the game.

But in politics -- like a game of chess -- speculation is developed in the way the players make their moves. And in the 2010 political chess game, Gloria’s opening gambit -- if she plays it masterfully -- could possibly lead to a checkmate of the opposition. But who would be the pawn that she would sacrifice in her gambit?

Recently, Vice President Noli De Castro said that Gloria has “no plan and no intention to extend her term beyond 2010.” But De Castro was talking only about “term extension” which could only happen if the constitution was amended to extend her term. And that’s not going to happen. Not while Gloria’s House boys are at each other’s throat. However, if the constitution was amended to change the form of government to parliamentary system prior to June 2010, it would open the door for Gloria to run as a member of parliament. In that capacity, Gloria would be in a position to lead the majority party -- presumably the Lakas-Kampi- CMD -- in forming a government with her as the Prime Minister.

With the Cha-cha train derailed, is Gloria going to pursue another elective political office in the 2010 elections? If she does, then we know what she is up to. I doubt, however, that she would admit it at this time. However, many people believe that she is going to run as congresswoman of her Pampanga district which is currently represented by her son, Mikey Arroyo.

If that would be the case, Gloria would make sure that Lakas-Kampi- CMD will emerge from the 2010 elections with absolute control of the House of Representatives. As a congresswoman, Gloria could easily muster enough support to become the Speaker of the House. She could then maneuver to pass a resolution to convene a Constituent Assembly (Con-ass) or Constitutional Convention (Con-con) to amend the constitution to adopt a parliamentary form of government.

And the end game would be during the mid-term elections in 2013 when a referendum would be placed on the ballot to approve the constitutional amendments. Once approved by the electorate, the new parliamentary government would be established and the sitting president, who would have been elected in the 2010 elections, would lose his governing power and transform to a “ceremonial” president and head of state. The Prime Minister would be the one to run the government… and wield power.

Last April, Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri, LAKAS secretary-general, said that five candidates were included on the party’s short list: Sen. Manny Villar (Nacionalista Party), Sen. Loren Legarda (Nationalist People’s Coalition - NPC), Sen. Richard Gordon (independent) , Vice-President Noli de Castro (independent) , and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro (formerly of NPC).

Among the five “presidentiables” on the LAKAS short list, the most popular is De Castro. In a survey by Pulse Asia last February, three of them were on the top five on the list: De Castro (19%), Villar (15%), and Legarda (12%). Gordon and Teodoro were not included in the Pulse Asia poll. The other two were: NPC’s Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero (17%) and former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada (16%).

By process of elimination, Villar would most likely run under a Nacionalista- led opposition coalition. Gordon would most likely run under the banner of Bagumbayan Movement which endorsed him a few weeks ago. And Legarda would most likely stay with NPC and compete against Escudero for the party’s nomination.

That leaves De Castro and Teodoro as the two strong contenders for Lakas-Kampi- CMD’s presidential nomination. Incidentally, De Castro and Teodoro were invited to Lakas-Kampi- CMD’s first executive meeting on May 28. However, it remains to be seen if De Castro would accept to head the ticket. But like the legendary Amang Rodriguez once said, “Politics is addition.” Why would De Castro refuse such an offer when he doesn’t even have a party to stand on today?

How about Teodoro? When he announced his candidacy several weeks ago, he said that he would not accept anything but a presidential nomination. Between De Castro and Teodoro, De Castro has experience in national politics and also high name recognition. Teodoro lacks both. However, De Castro is perceived as a weak “do nothing” politician. Unless he can change that perception… well, on the other hand, that might be his strong point: a weak “do nothing” politician. The country had strong “do things” politicians before and they ended up being despised by the people because they did a lot of things for themselves and did nothing to alleviate the plight of the powerless poor.

The question is: would De Castro kowtow to Gloria? If he does, he will be taking a great risk of losing his base of support because Gloria’s “anointment” might turn out to be a “kiss of death” which could put an end to his political life.

And what would happen to Teodoro? I would not be surprised if Gloria would use him as a pawn to sacrifice in her opening gambit… unless he changes his mind and settles as De Castro’s vice presidential running mate. At his young age, he has all the time to wait until his calling comes.
(PerryDiaz@gmail. com)