PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz
Two weeks after reports
that Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has threatened the U.S. that he will
terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) between the two countries, U.S.
President Donald Trump reacted by saying he didn’t mind that the Philippine
government terminated the agreement. “We’ll save a lot of money. You know
my views are different from other people. I view it as, ‘Thank you
very much, we’ll save a lot of money,’” he said. After notification of the
termination, VFA will end.
Trump’s
reaction is typical of his mindset about military alliances. He believes
that the U.S. has been giving away billions in military expenditures to its
allies for not much in return. He thinks it’s not good business. A
case in point is the 29-member North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which
he says the U.S. is shouldering too much of the cost while the other member
countries aren’t contributing much.
He has
threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the alliance although he knows that it
would weaken America’s standing as a world superpower. But he doesn’t
care about that. All he cares about is money being spent to protect other
nations. He is an isolationist, thinking that the U.S. can stand on its
own against anyone in the world.
Of course
nobody would agree with him. But Trump the president is Trump the
businessman whose track record of six bankruptcies involving five companies
that went under speaks of his narrow-minded views of how to make deals.
He aims for short-term profit to save money at the expense of building
long-term relationship and equity.
Mutual
Defense Treaty
Duterte is no
different from Trump. He, too, doesn’t look at long-term relationship and
equity. He transacts business to gain immediate profit regardless of the
consequences. In the case of the termination of VFA, he didn’t seem to
have thought about the repercussions of severing the Philippines’ alliance with
the U.S.
It’s not just
about stopping American forces from being deployed in Mindanao to help in the
war on terrorism, it’s about a relationship where both countries benefit from
each other’s strengths. It’s like a relationship between two brothers
where the older brother is stronger than the younger.
Their relationship is based on “mutual
defense” where one brother will come to the aid of the other if attacked.
But in the case of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), it is
designed for the U.S. to defend the Philippines from attack, not the other way
around because the Philippines – with no warships and warplanes -- doesn’t have
the means to come to the defense of the U.S. if attacked.
But without
the VFA, the MDT and two other agreements – the Enhanced Defense Cooperation
Agreement (EDCA) and Mutual Logistics Support Agreement (MLSA) -- would most
probably be junked.
Simply put,
getting out of VFA would make EDCA and MLSA virtually useless. EDCA,
after six years, remains inoperable since it has never been fully
implemented. MLSA is used to allow U.S. forces on training
engagements to turn over military equipment and ammunition expeditiously to the
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). But with VFA gone, that
would also end the turnover of military equipment used in VFA training
exercises.
As Foreign
Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin had said, “Scrapping the VFA may also
dilute U.S. commitment to other pacts, affect trade relations and make it more
difficult for the Philippines to access millions of dollars in U.S. defense
aid.”
With the
termination of the VFA, Sen. Panfilo Lacson said that the MDT would now be
reduced to a mere paper treaty.
“There’s no
more intelligence information sharing in our fight against domestic and foreign
terrorist acts, no more U.S. military aid and financing that accounts for a good
52% of what they extend to the whole Asia-Pacific region,” he said.
“That may not
include other intangible economic benefits and security from external threats
in the West Philippine Sea, as well as humanitarian aid in times of disasters,
epidemics and other crises,” he added.
War with
China
So,
what will happen after the VFA is scrapped and China attacks the
Philippines? Since American forces will no longer be stationed or
deployed to the Philippines, how would Duterte react if Chinese President Xi Jinping
threatens again to go to war with the Philippines if Duterte wouldn’t accede to
Xi’s demands to explore the Spratly Islands and the much larger and richer
Benham Rise in the Philippine Sea?
Lacson
and two other senators filed a resolution asking Duterte to reconsider his plan
to scrap the VFA. But Duterte has already made his final decision. It’s
unfortunate though that he based his decision to terminate the VFA on the U.S.
government’s cancellation of the visa of former Philippine National Police (PNP)
Chief, close personal friend, and now senator Ronald “Bato” de la Rosa.
It seems like
it was a knee-jerk reaction to a slight. However, one has to look at
Duterte’s hatred of the U.S. as the main reason why Duterte terminated the VFA.
The visa issue seems like it’s the last straw that broke the camel’s
back. But by doing so, Duterte has achieved his desire to steer the
Philippines to align strategically – and eventually, militarily -- with China
before his term ends in 2022, which was what he’s been promising since taking
office.
But the
question is: How would a Philippines aligned with China affect and impact
the geopolitics of Asia -- specifically, Japan, South Korea, and Australia –
who have all mutual defense treaties with the U.S.?
Satellite surveillance
It’s a known
fact that a very important aspect of the U.S.’s defense alliances is
information sharing among them. Australia is the site of Pine Gap, the
commonly used name for a U.S. satellite surveillance base located in central
Australia, which is operated jointly by the U.S. and Australia.
Officially
known as Joint Defense Facility Pine Gap (JDFPG), it is partly run by the U.S.
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), U.S. National Security Agency (NSA), and
U.S. National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). It is a key contributor to
NSA’s global interception effort.
Since the end
of the Cold War in 1991 and the rise of the War on Terror in 2001, Pine
Gap has seen a refocusing away from mere nuclear treaty monitoring and missile
launch detection, to become a vital war-fighting base for US military forces.
One of the
station's primary functions is to locate radio signals in the Eastern
Hemisphere, with the collected information fed into the US drone program.
This was confirmed by an NSA document from 2013, which says that Pine Gap plays
a key role in providing geolocation data for intelligence purposes, as
well as for military operations, including air strikes. (Source: Wikipedia,
“Pine Gap”)
The location
is strategically significant because it controls U.S. spy satellites as they
pass over one-third of the globe, including China, the Asian parts of Russia,
and the Middle East. In other words, once a missile is launched from any
of these places, Pine Gap is instantly alerted and the missile is tracked,
which provides the U.S. with valuable information to intercept it.
Since the
Philippines is within the range of Pine Gap’s satellite surveillance, China’s
seven bases in the artificial islands in the Spratly Archipelago are within
reach of the U.S.’s cruise missiles deployed in the area and can strike any of
the bases within 30 seconds.
While
this would provide the Philippines with security umbrella, it is not enough to
stop Chinese invasion. However, it would certainly keep the Philippines
safe from Chinese missile attack. So, next time Xi threatens Duterte with
war, Duterte can dare say, “Go ahead, bro. Make my day.”
At the end of
the day, Duterte might have been sorry for threatening to scrap the VFA. Trump
took it took as a bluff. But Trump did not only take the bluff, he raised
the ante. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
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