Outbreak of the unvaccinated continues

CITY HALL BEAT  

Aileen P. Refuerzo

BAGUIO CITY – Unvaccinated patients continued to dominate the city’s tally of the recent Covid-19 cases in this summer capital.
    Data from the UP Baguio Department of Mathematics and Computer Science and the Baguio City Health Services Office showed that 55.04 percent of the city’s 7,568 cases from Aug. 18 to Sept. 30 had not received a single dose of the vaccine while 16.48 percent were just partially vaccinated.
    Of the 138 deaths recorded during said period, 109 were unvaccinated, one was not eligible for vaccination and 13 were partially vaccinated.
    The unvaccinated also comprised the majority of the severe and moderate patients with 31 out of 44 and 85 out of 108, respectively.  The partially vaccinated accounted for six severe and 23 moderate cases.
    The City Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit (CESU) of the CHSO said nine out of the ten hospitalized in the city as of Sept. 30 were unvaccinated.
    Another set of data from the two agencies revealed that from May to September, 2021, there were 274 COVID-19 deaths in the city and of the total, 236 or 86.13 percent were unvaccinated and one or 0.36 percent were not eligible. 
    Ten or 3.65 percent were partially vaccinated and 27 or 9.85 percent were fully vaccinated.
    Mayor Benjamin Magalong and the city’s health experts earlier described the city’s situation amid the Delta variant-driven surge as an outbreak of the unvaccinated after unvaccinated individuals especially the elderly and those with pre-existing illnesses turned out to be the ones in severe and critical condition overwhelming the hospital facilities.
    Vaccine effectiveness study showed that unvaccinated persons have more chances of getting Covid-19 than the vaccinated individuals but it does not mean that vaccinated persons will not get the virus or will not develop symptoms.
    “Our vaccines are not perfect but they lessen the chances of developing severe symptoms, hospitalization and death.  There will be breakthrough infections and deaths but what is important is we have better chances of not ending up in hospitals needing oxygen and ventilators,” the CESU said.
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City officials have expressed hope that the city can realize a downtrend in Covid-19 cases sooner than expected following the Delta variant-driven surge slowdown in Metro Manila and other erstwhile critical areas.
    Mayor Magalong and City Health Services Office heads Drs. Rowena Galpo and Celia Flor Brillantes said the city needs to have a sustained decrease in cases in the coming days to achieve said goal.
    The mayor said although the city’s case reproduction number or R naught which helps predict the number of cases generated from exposure to a patient had started to go down from 1.4 (the critical level threshold) to less than 1 starting Sept. 22,  it needs further validation as data inputs were still being completed due to delays.
    If said R naught level holds after validation and the city sustains this trend for 14 days, then a downtrend is possible towards the end of the second week of October, the mayor surmised.
    Galpo and Brillantes agreed that there were indications of a slow decrease in cases in the past days but this is not enough to declare a downturn.
    “We need to see a sustained reduction of cases so it’s still too early to say,” Brillantes told the Ugnayan press briefing on Oct. 6.
    Galpo during the management committee meeting Oct. 5 said they may come up with a clearer picture after this week as they are still completing the data to be analyzed.
    Galpo said that as of Oct. 4, the city’s two-week growth rate (TWGR) had been on the negative for the past two reporting dates which is a good indicator.
    The average daily attack rate (ADAR) had also slightly lowered at 47.4 per 100,000 population.
     The mayor said the 7-day moving average on Covid-19 deaths from Sept. 25 to Oct. 1 also showed the daily number of deaths had gone down from 8 in the previous week to 6.
    The mayor assured that the city will continue to employ measures to control the contagion and achieve a downturn as soon as possible.
    He encouraged residents to continue complying with health and safety protocols and quarantine restrictions and to avail of the vaccines when their turns come.
    The city health officers also appealed to residents to if possible stay at home to avoid exposure and to seek consult and observe quarantine and preventive measures if experiencing symptoms.