What started as a word war between Japan and China could lead to
another world war, and perhaps the last world war – of the “Dr. Strangelove”
variety — on planet Earth.
And just the thought of a catastrophic nuclear war
would deter China and Japan from starting a war. So, why then wouldn’t the two
protagonists stop jabbing at each other and sit down to settle their
territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands to China)?
But it is easier said than done. With no economic
value that’s worth fighting for, it makes one wonder what do these eight
uninhabited small islands and islets have that is making China go gaga
over them? Could it be that there is something else that China wants that is of
far greater value than these desolate specks of land in the middle of East
China Sea?
If China gained control of the Senkaku group of
islands, which is 114 nautical miles west of Miyako Island, she would be in a
position to control or block the Miyako Strait, which connects the East China
Sea to the Philippine Sea… and the Pacific Ocean beyond.
***
Recently, China broke through the First Island Chain,
which runs from the Asian mainland all the way to Vietnam by way of Japan,
Taiwan, Philippines, Borneo, and Malaysia. For the first time, her navy entered
the Pacific Ocean from the North China Sea through the narrow Soya Strait
between the Russian island of Sakhalin and the Japanese northern island of
Hokkaido. After spending some time in Western Pacific waters, the ships sailed
south to the Philippine Sea and then passed through the Miyako Strait on their
return voyage to the home base of the North China Sea Fleet at Qingdao. Soya
Strait and Miyako Strait are two of several channels along the First Island
Chain.
China didn’t waste any time bragging about it. In an
interview with China Daily during the 86th anniversary of the People’s
Liberation Army (PLA), Du Wenlong, a senior researcher at the PLA’s Academy of
Military Science, said, “The Chinese navy has the capability to cut the first
island chain into several pieces. Now the chain is fragmented.” He added that
“the repeated passages show that the PLA navy is now capable of sending and
supporting its warships to navigate and fight in channels far from the
continent.”
Recently, China sent an observation drone over the
Senkaku islands. Reacting to the intrusion into Japanese airspace, Japan
immediately passed a law authorizing the military to shoot down Chinese drones
intruding into her territory. Needless to say, China was infuriated. A Chinese
spokesman warned that an attack against a Chinese drone would be an act of war
and would “certainly attract return fire from fighters of PLA Air Force and
Navy Air Force.”
In reaction, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned
China against “forcibly changing the regional balance of power.” Consequently,
Japan announced that her Self-Defense Forces (SDF) would deploy a
surface-to-ship missile unit on Miyako Island, which would put all the waters
between Okinawa and Miyako Island within its range.
It is interesting to note that during the summit
meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama in
California last June, Xi told the media that he and Obama were meeting “to
chart the future of China-US relations and draw a blueprint for this
relationship.” Then he added: “The vast Pacific Ocean has enough space
for two large countries like the United States and China.”
***
If China succeeds in controlling the Miyako Strait and
the Soya Strait, she would achieve her goal of breaking the First Island Chain
and move on to the next step, which is to control the Second Island Chain,
which stretches from Japan all the way to Papua New Guinea by way of the U.S.
territories of Guam and Saipan. That would put China’s navy at America’s
threshold.
In an article titled, “China to take Second Island Chain by 2020,” published several
months ago in the Want China Times, it said: “In 1982, Admiral Liu
Huaqing, the former commander of the PLA Navy and the mastermind of China’s
modern naval strategy, said that it would be necessary for China to control the
First and Second Island Chains by 2010 and 2020. The PLA Navy must be ready to
challenge US domination over the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean in 2040.
If China is able to dominate the Second Island Chain seven years from now, the
East China Sea will become the backyard of the PLA Navy.”
***
Last October 31, 2013, China’s state-run Global
Times published an article, saying that escalating tensions between China
and Japan over territorial claims to the Senkaku Islands could ignite a war. It
said that Beijing was preparing for a “worst-case” scenario of military
conflict over the disputed islands.
It seems that China’s “worst-case” scenario is a
deliberate attempt to fulfill Xi’s “Chinese Dream,” which is the revival of
imperial China — or PaxSinica (Chinese Peace) – that had maintained
Chinese hegemony in Asia during the reign of the Ming dynasty. “The great
revival of the Chinese nation is the greatest Chinese Dream,” Xi said before
taking office in November 2012.
***
Surmise it to say, China’s carefully orchestrated
actions in the past two years are leading to war against Japan… and ultimately
against the United States, with the goal of ending American hegemony – Pax
Americana — in the Pacific.
The question is: Is China ready to go to war against
the U.S.?
Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine
In a Want China Times article last November 2,
2013, Chinese Rear Admiral Yang Yi reportedly said that China needs at least 20
nuclear-powered submarines to defend its maritime interests. Yang said that the
United States is now the only maritime superpower with both aircraft carriers
and nuclear submarines.
He said that with 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile
submarines, the U.S. has “the capability to wipe out a medium-size nation with
100 UGM-133 Trident D-5 missiles.”
Indeed, the only thing that’s stopping China from
pursuing her imperialistic ambitions is America’s Trident II D-5 missile. There
are 24 of these missiles with a range of 4,000 nautical miles in each
Ohio-class submarine. It is estimated that 540 of these missiles will be built
at the end of 2013.
***
But here’s the kicker: Each Trident II D5 missile is
loaded with a “Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicle” (MIRV), which
can carry up to 14 nuclear warheads. Currently, the U.S. Navy has 3,030 of
these warheads in service.
At this time, it would be suicidal for China to launch
a first-strike attack against the U.S. However, at the rate China is building
her navy, she might be able to get closer to parity with the U.S. in 20 years;
that is, if the U.S. doesn’t improve or increase her naval power, which seems
unlikely to happen.
But if China is mad enough to pursue Xi Jinping’sPaxSinica
and attack the U.S., it could end in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). And
Dr. Strangelove couldn’t be happier.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
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