Obama’s redline in the South China Sea: Scarborough Shoal

BEHIND THE SCENES

Alfred P. Dizon

In light of Tuesday’s sweeping decision at the Hague denying China’s claim to various islands and reefs in the South China Sea, this is an interesting tidbit from the Financial Times:

US President Barack Obama in March delivered a stark admonition to Xi Jinping over the South China Sea, warning the Chinese leader of serious consequences if China reclaimed land at Scarborough Shoal, one of the most dangerous flashpoints in Asia.

….Following the meeting in Washington, China withdrew its ships from the area….“The signaling from the US side was that this was serious,” said a former official. “There was an accumulation of pieces … the conclusion was that the People’s Liberation Army was advocating [action]. It wasn’t necessarily indicators that Xi himself had made any decisions, but there was the feeling that it was on his desk and coming to him for a decision.”

….China has come under criticism for building man-made islands in recent years, but the US saw Scarborough as more strategically significant given its proximity to the coast of the Philippines, which has a mutual defense treaty with the US.

Some officials worried that China could install radar and missiles on Scarborough. Along with facilities in the Paracel and Spratly Islands, that would help China create a strategic triangle, which would enable the policing of any air defense identification zone in the South China Sea.

At the moment, China reclaims land at various spots in the South China Sea, and everyone complains but nobody does anything about it. Likewise, we operate reconnaissance flights and perform Freedom of Navigation exercises, and China complains but doesn’t do anything about it. Basically, both sides can do whatever they want because neither side wants to start a war over it. This pretty obviously favors China at the moment, since they have the resources for large-scale reclamation projects and just enough of a navy to protect them. We have a considerably bigger navy, but it’s unlikely the American public would show much support for a shooting war with China to protect a rock out in the middle of nowhere. All China really has to do is wait a while for us to get bored, and then keep on building.

                ***

This, as President Duterte can use the ruling to promote South China Sea demilitarization, according to the Communist Party of the Philippines who said the ruling of the United National Arbitral Tribunal in The Hague recognizing Philippine rights over the maritime features in the South China Sea which form part of the country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and continental shelf was welcome.

“While the tribunal's proceedings were not recognized by China, its ruling helps strengthen the international standing and politico-diplomatic position of the Philippines with regard its assertion of sovereignty over Bajo de Masinloc, the Kalayaan group of islands and other maritime features within its territorial seas,” the CPP said in a statement.

“With the arbitration ruling, the Philippines must more vigorously assert

Philippine sovereignty. The Philippine government must exhibit sharp political and diplomatic acumen in order to promote non-antagonistic means to engage China and other countries involved in the maritime dispute.

“The Philippine government and people must firmly oppose China's transgressions and urge it to recognize and respect the ruling, most especially by putting a stop to its earlier practice of preventing small Filipino fishermen from gaining access to areas within the Philippine EEZ as well as international fishing grounds.”

According to the CPP, the Duterte government can use the favorable ruling to lead an international campaign for the demilitarization of the South China Sea, especially those under Philippine territorial waters.

“The Philippines can take advantage of its diplomatic high ground to promote regional peace by urging all concerned countries to stand down and undertake military deescalation. The Philippines must demand China to withdraw its military vessels and desist from further dredging and building facilities for military use within Philippine

territorial waters. At the same time, the country can recognize China's military aggressiveness as mostly an effort to fend off US military encirclement since the US heightened its presence and projection in line with its "pivot to Asia" in 2012.

According to the CPP, In order to convince China to demilitarize the area, the Philippines must also demand the US and the US-led military alliance to withdraw all its military vessels and troops from the Philippine territorial waters.

”The Philippine government must refuse to serve as a US military stronghold and launching pad for intervention. The Philippine government must demand the immediate removal of the USS John

Stennis aircraft carrier group from Philippine territorial waters. It must also work with the US to carry out the step-by-step withdrawal of American troops and US war vessels in the Philippines.

“The Philippine government must oppose US power projection exercises and US "freedom of navigation operations" which are thinly veiled acts of provocation and assertion of US military might. Such naval operations of the US violate Philippine territorial seas. The Philippine government must assert that the authority to ensure the free flow of trade must not be exclusively in the hands of the US military.

“The Philippine government can open a new era of friendship with the American people that is not tied to becoming a military pawn of the US.

At the same time, it can promote and deepen mutually-beneficial economic relations with China while ensuring the protection of the country's national patrimony.

The UN tribunal ruling gives President Duterte the momentous opportunity to display world-class leadership where he can initiate a new period of peace in the Asia-Pacific region,” the CPP statement ended.

                **

The Commission on Elections said those planning to run in the barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan (SK) polls have until Oct. 3 to 5 to make up their mind and file their certificates of candidacy (COCs).

In Resolution No. 10151, the Comelec said this is the period set for the filing of COCs for those who want to run for barangay and SK posts.

But the poll body noted that candidates could campaign only from Oct. 21 to 29.

The Comelec had reminded the public that during the campaign period, certain “prohibited acts will take effect, including making donation or gift in cash or in kind; use of armored land, water or air craft, appointing or using special policemen, special/confidential agents and the like and construction or maintenance of public roads and bridges.”

During this period, however, the holding of barangay assemblies and candidates meetings are allowed.

The Comelec said on election day, voting hours in polling precincts shall be from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. The resolution shows that the election period shall start on Oct. 1 and end on Nov. 7, during which time the carrying of firearms and other deadly weapons would be banned.

Candidates are also prohibited from hiring bodyguards while the transfer or detail of officers and employees in civil service, including teachers, is banned.