How long can Putin stay in power?
>> Thursday, March 17, 2022
PERRYSCOPE
Perry DiazTHE RUSSIAN INVASION of
Ukraine is now on its second stage: the bombardment of
Ukraine. Without a no-fly zone over the Ukrainian sky, the Russian
Air Force is now poised to launch all-out air strikes against Ukraine. But
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned any attempt by NATO allies to impose a
no-fly zone over Ukraine would be viewed as "participation in the armed
conflict.”
Nevertheless, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called President Joe Biden and his NATO allies “weak” for not agreeing to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. He said that the “lack of a no-fly zone was putting blood in the hands of the West.”
In a bitter speech, he renewed his call, telling NATO that "all the people who die from this day forward will also die because of you." He also criticized Biden for not imposing severe sanctions against Russia and for not stopping buying Russian oil, which makes one wonder: Why? Why? Why?
While Russian President Vladimir Putin has gone all-out on his barbaric and illegal assault on the brave Ukrainian people, Biden seemed to have cocooned himself in Washington DC issuing warnings to Putin that he’ll fight for every inch of NATO territory. How about a NATO partner’s territory, Mr. President? Aren’t you going to help a reliable and valuable ally from being slaughtered by Putin? Don’t you believe in the saying, “A friend in need is a friend indeed”? Or do you consider Ukraine a “fair weather friend” who is now fighting for her dear life? Do you treat Ukraine as a second-class ally to be used at your convenience but wouldn’t lift a finger to save her from annihilation?
Putin smells blood
But Putin, who must have sensed Biden’s rigid stand against helping Ukraine – after all, he vowed never to go to war against Russia over Ukraine – is having the best time of his life. Yesterday, he issued two ultimatums to Biden and NATO: (1) Sanctions against Russia will be considered a “declaration of war,” and (2) Sending weapons to Ukraine will be an “act of war.”
Is Biden going to withdraw from Europe and surrender Ukraine to Putin? That’s what Putin’s ultimatums come down to. Is Biden going the easy way out by following Putin’s dictate?
While withdrawing from Afghanistan had caused a geopolitical ripple, withdrawing from Ukraine would be tantamount to a “geopolitical catastrophe” far worse than what Putin said in 2005 when he lamented, “The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” It would be the end of Pax Americana and the beginning of Pax Russica.
It would seem then that Putin is playing his end game with ultimatums. But Biden’s retinue of retired generals and admirals would probably advise him not to heed Putin’s threats to withdraw or else suffer the consequences of a nuclear war.
Nuclear war
A nuclear war? Heck, the specter of a nuclear war scares the hell out of Biden. Putin is very much aware of MAD; that is, Mutually Assured Destruction. But the question is: Does Putin have the courage to end his own life by pressing the Doomsday Button that would fire Russia’s arsenal of nuclear weapons, enough to blow planet Earth to billions of radioactive meteorites?
Let’s analyze this very carefully. Putin may be crazy but he’s not stupid. He is a narcissistic megalomaniac whose self-love strips him of any compassion for people. Like Hitler, he delights in the suffering of people. He reminds me of the movie, “Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.”
But make no mistake; he loves his money. Actually, he’s rumored to have stashed $200 billion someplace. Anybody who has accumulated that kind of moolah wouldn’t want to leave it on Earth. But knowing that he is just a mortal being who lives on borrowed time, it must have stricken him to the core. So he’s got one option left; that is, to immortalize his legacy. But he has a problem; he won’t be in the company of the world’s great men and women. He’d be in the company of the world’s villains. He’ll be next to Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini in the Rogues’ Gallery. But that’s his choice. He did it on his own volition.
Path to greatness
He could have taken a path used by such great leaders like Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, Napoleon Bonaparte, and Peter the Great. Some were men of peace and some were men of war. But none of them had been branded as war criminals.
But Putin has been branded as a war criminal for the illegal invasion of Ukraine, which unfortunately killed innocent civilians. It has also displaced more than 1.5 million Ukrainians in the first ten days of the Russian invasion, dispersing them in the neighboring countries of Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia, and other European countries. It is expected that the number would increase to four to five million refugees, mostly women, children, and the elderly. Men between 18 and 60 years old were not allowed to leave and were encouraged to stay to fight for their freedom.
Call to volunteers
Nevertheless, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called President Joe Biden and his NATO allies “weak” for not agreeing to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. He said that the “lack of a no-fly zone was putting blood in the hands of the West.”
In a bitter speech, he renewed his call, telling NATO that "all the people who die from this day forward will also die because of you." He also criticized Biden for not imposing severe sanctions against Russia and for not stopping buying Russian oil, which makes one wonder: Why? Why? Why?
While Russian President Vladimir Putin has gone all-out on his barbaric and illegal assault on the brave Ukrainian people, Biden seemed to have cocooned himself in Washington DC issuing warnings to Putin that he’ll fight for every inch of NATO territory. How about a NATO partner’s territory, Mr. President? Aren’t you going to help a reliable and valuable ally from being slaughtered by Putin? Don’t you believe in the saying, “A friend in need is a friend indeed”? Or do you consider Ukraine a “fair weather friend” who is now fighting for her dear life? Do you treat Ukraine as a second-class ally to be used at your convenience but wouldn’t lift a finger to save her from annihilation?
Putin smells blood
But Putin, who must have sensed Biden’s rigid stand against helping Ukraine – after all, he vowed never to go to war against Russia over Ukraine – is having the best time of his life. Yesterday, he issued two ultimatums to Biden and NATO: (1) Sanctions against Russia will be considered a “declaration of war,” and (2) Sending weapons to Ukraine will be an “act of war.”
Is Biden going to withdraw from Europe and surrender Ukraine to Putin? That’s what Putin’s ultimatums come down to. Is Biden going the easy way out by following Putin’s dictate?
While withdrawing from Afghanistan had caused a geopolitical ripple, withdrawing from Ukraine would be tantamount to a “geopolitical catastrophe” far worse than what Putin said in 2005 when he lamented, “The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” It would be the end of Pax Americana and the beginning of Pax Russica.
It would seem then that Putin is playing his end game with ultimatums. But Biden’s retinue of retired generals and admirals would probably advise him not to heed Putin’s threats to withdraw or else suffer the consequences of a nuclear war.
Nuclear war
A nuclear war? Heck, the specter of a nuclear war scares the hell out of Biden. Putin is very much aware of MAD; that is, Mutually Assured Destruction. But the question is: Does Putin have the courage to end his own life by pressing the Doomsday Button that would fire Russia’s arsenal of nuclear weapons, enough to blow planet Earth to billions of radioactive meteorites?
Let’s analyze this very carefully. Putin may be crazy but he’s not stupid. He is a narcissistic megalomaniac whose self-love strips him of any compassion for people. Like Hitler, he delights in the suffering of people. He reminds me of the movie, “Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.”
But make no mistake; he loves his money. Actually, he’s rumored to have stashed $200 billion someplace. Anybody who has accumulated that kind of moolah wouldn’t want to leave it on Earth. But knowing that he is just a mortal being who lives on borrowed time, it must have stricken him to the core. So he’s got one option left; that is, to immortalize his legacy. But he has a problem; he won’t be in the company of the world’s great men and women. He’d be in the company of the world’s villains. He’ll be next to Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini in the Rogues’ Gallery. But that’s his choice. He did it on his own volition.
Path to greatness
He could have taken a path used by such great leaders like Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, Napoleon Bonaparte, and Peter the Great. Some were men of peace and some were men of war. But none of them had been branded as war criminals.
But Putin has been branded as a war criminal for the illegal invasion of Ukraine, which unfortunately killed innocent civilians. It has also displaced more than 1.5 million Ukrainians in the first ten days of the Russian invasion, dispersing them in the neighboring countries of Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia, and other European countries. It is expected that the number would increase to four to five million refugees, mostly women, children, and the elderly. Men between 18 and 60 years old were not allowed to leave and were encouraged to stay to fight for their freedom.
Call to volunteers
On the battlefield, the Ukrainian freedom fighters have been successful in downing Russian jets and helicopters. So far, they have downed 44 Russian planes and 44 helicopters in 10 days of all-out war. On March 5 alone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces Air Command shot down five aircraft and four helicopters including one Su-25 fighter jet, two Su-34 fighter-bombers, and two Su-30 SM plane.
As the war progresses into the coming days, the heroism of the Ukrainian freedom fighters is beyond my wildest dream. Armed with Stinger surface-to-air rockets and Javelin anti-tank guided missiles, which lock on the target before launch, thereby ensuring accuracy.
Between the Stingers and the Javelins, the Ukrainian freedom fighters are having a field day downing airplanes and knocking out Russian tanks. This has caused demoralization among the Russian soldiers who are short on fuel and food, the two most important items in a ground war.
Putin’s ultimatums
Meanwhile, Biden is faced with ultimatums that could determine the outcome of the Ukraine War. I hope that he would reject the ultimatums and continue sending weapons to the Ukrainian freedom fighters and impose severe sanctions including banning oil import from Russia. The reason Putin issued the ultimatums is because weapons provided by the U.S. and her NATO allies are defeating the Russian troops.
The Russian oligarchs are hurting, losing 30% of their billions’ worth. And with the ruble now valued a penny to the U.S. dollar, it’s on the brink of collapsing, which would make the ruble worthless. And with the sanctions imposed on the Russian banks, Russia’s central bank would be forced to dig into its hard currency reserves in order to bail out the banks and keep them afloat. It would cripple the Russian economy so it can no longer be able to fund her war machine.
And if Putin doesn’t withdraw his forces from Ukraine, the Russian generals might be tempted to remove him from power, which makes one wonder: How long can Putin stay in power?
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
PERRYSCOPE
The emerging Russo-Sino Axis of Power
WHEN RUSSIAN PRESIDENT
Vladimir Putin went to Beijing to attend the opening of the Winter Olympics
last February 4, little did anyone suspect that it would lead to the beginning
of a strategic partnership between Putin and Chinese President Xi
Jinping. It was then that the two leaders would fashion out a
lengthy 99-paragraph joint statement that detailed how they have come to adopt
“shared positions” on a range of global issues. Or could it be that
there were preliminary negotiations before they got together at the inauguration
of the 2022 Olympics? Nobody could have come up with a joint
statement that long and had it finalized within a few hours.
No
way! The crux of the voluminous joint statement boils down to
creating a “long-term legally binding security guarantees in Europe” that
Russia and China mutually support. In addition, they “oppose further
enlargement of NATO and call on the North Atlantic Alliance to abandon its
ideologized cold war approaches, to respect the sovereignty, security and
interests of other countries.” Clearly, what they’re proposing
is to prevent NATO from expanding further east that would take Ukraine within
its protective umbrella under Article 5, which is “An attack on one member of
NATO is an attack on all members.”
By the same token, Russia supports China’s view of the
Indo-Pacific and the illegitimacy of the U.S. role there. This is
manifested in the joint statement, which says that they are “against the
formation of closed bloc structures and opposing camps in the Asia-Pacific
region and remain highly vigilant about the negative impact of the United
States’ Indo-Pacific strategy on peace and stability in the region.”
ASEAN solidarity
Immediately, one can surmise that this is in reference to the U.S.’s attempt to solidify its relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which is slowly metastasizing into a NATO-like organization, particularly due to the common fear among the ten ASEAN members that the rise of China would sooner or later pose a great danger to their sovereignty.
Immediately, one can surmise that this is in reference to the U.S.’s attempt to solidify its relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which is slowly metastasizing into a NATO-like organization, particularly due to the common fear among the ten ASEAN members that the rise of China would sooner or later pose a great danger to their sovereignty.
Indeed, ASEAN members have begun to sign defense treaties
with one another as well as with the U.S. Could it be that it’s just
a matter of time before ASEAN would evolve into a security alliance, a Pacific
NATO?
War on two fronts
The question is: How is the U.S. going to deal with Russia’s aggression against Ukraine while maintaining its obligation to defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion?
I t’s a tough situation. However, the U.S. had been there before, fighting two theaters of war at the same time: the war in Europe against Germany and the war in the Pacific against Japan. And America emerged victorious from both wars.
But it’s not going to be easy. Casualties from both sides will be heavy. But U.S. and NATO superiority would prevail over the Russian invaders. A large contingent of Ukrainian troops – which number around 255,000 active personnel and more than 900,000 reserve personnel – can be deployed immediately.
The Russians would also have to deal with armed militias who would have the capability to wage guerilla warfare. The Russians will be attacked from all sides.
Today, as war looms ahead in Ukraine and Taiwan, the U.S. is prepared as ever before. More than likely, war will erupt first in Ukraine where 190,000 Russian troops are poised to break through the border into Ukrainian territory. In a blitzkrieg fashion, they’d probably reach Kyiv, the capital, within days.
Although President Joe Biden promised that the U.S. and NATO will come to the aid of Ukraine if attacked, there is no timeline as to how soon would assistance arrive? Will it arrive before the Russians take Kyiv?
Many are apprehensive that NATO military aid might not arrive on time to prevent the fall of Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that the U.S. and NATO should send troops now that the Russian troops, tanks, and missiles are just steps away from the border. He also suggested that the sanctions should start now. Why wait until the country is overrun? Biden should – nay, must – act now! Impose severe sanctions and mobilize NATO forces to cross into Ukraine once Russian invasion has begun. Or does it seem like Biden is still in “withdrawal” mode, still having a head-banging hangover from what he did in Afghanistan?
Divide the world
In the final analysis, one wonders what are Putin and Xi thinking? Do they want to take over the entire world, just like Spain and Portugal did in the New World, when they signed the Treaty of Tordesillas on June 7, 1494? They divided the newly discovered lands outside Europe between the Portuguese Empire and the Spanish Empire, by drawing a north-to-south line of demarcation in the Atlantic Ocean, about 345 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of northwestern Africa. All lands west of that line were claimed by Spain. Spain also claimed all of South America except Brazil, which was claimed by Portugal. That’s the reason why Brazil is the only Portuguese-speaking country in South America all the way up to California, Mexico, and Central America. The Philippines was supposed to be claimed by Portugal but they made a mistake and Spain ended up claiming the Philippines.
With the emerging Russo-Sino Axis of Power, the map of the world would change with Europe ending within Russia’s sphere of influence and Asia within China’s sphere of influence. But then, who knows, in people’s mindset today, the days of the empires were long gone. Of all the world’s empires, none has survived. They all collapsed at some point in time. We have seen the collapse of the Soviet Union, which Vladimir Putin had lamented. "The breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century," he once said. “It became a genuine tragedy for the Russian people. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.” He was referring to Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union before the disintegration of the Soviet Empire. Now, Ukraine wishes to become part of NATO. That’s unthinkable. He already lost the Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – that were once parts of the Soviet Empire, and who jumped over the crumbling Iron Curtain to join NATO. He was helpless – and powerless -- to protest.
But today, Putin vowed that he’s not going to let it happen again. He’s got the nuclear weapons to threaten Europe with annihilation, not knowing that it would also destroy his beloved Mother Russia – and his $200 billion stashed away for his retirement -- because America would strike back with an equal amount of nuclear power. Is Putin going to risk a mutually assured destruction? I don’t think so. He might be crazy but he’s not stupid.
What Putin is trying to do is bluff his way to winning by going all in with his nuclear chips. At the end of the day, the Russo-Sino Axis of Power is on the verge of world dominion; that is, if Biden decides that he cannot risk American lives and fold his hand even though he has the winning hand. Yes, that’s how winners lose in a game of international poker.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
War on two fronts
The question is: How is the U.S. going to deal with Russia’s aggression against Ukraine while maintaining its obligation to defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion?
I t’s a tough situation. However, the U.S. had been there before, fighting two theaters of war at the same time: the war in Europe against Germany and the war in the Pacific against Japan. And America emerged victorious from both wars.
But it’s not going to be easy. Casualties from both sides will be heavy. But U.S. and NATO superiority would prevail over the Russian invaders. A large contingent of Ukrainian troops – which number around 255,000 active personnel and more than 900,000 reserve personnel – can be deployed immediately.
The Russians would also have to deal with armed militias who would have the capability to wage guerilla warfare. The Russians will be attacked from all sides.
Today, as war looms ahead in Ukraine and Taiwan, the U.S. is prepared as ever before. More than likely, war will erupt first in Ukraine where 190,000 Russian troops are poised to break through the border into Ukrainian territory. In a blitzkrieg fashion, they’d probably reach Kyiv, the capital, within days.
Although President Joe Biden promised that the U.S. and NATO will come to the aid of Ukraine if attacked, there is no timeline as to how soon would assistance arrive? Will it arrive before the Russians take Kyiv?
Many are apprehensive that NATO military aid might not arrive on time to prevent the fall of Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that the U.S. and NATO should send troops now that the Russian troops, tanks, and missiles are just steps away from the border. He also suggested that the sanctions should start now. Why wait until the country is overrun? Biden should – nay, must – act now! Impose severe sanctions and mobilize NATO forces to cross into Ukraine once Russian invasion has begun. Or does it seem like Biden is still in “withdrawal” mode, still having a head-banging hangover from what he did in Afghanistan?
Divide the world
In the final analysis, one wonders what are Putin and Xi thinking? Do they want to take over the entire world, just like Spain and Portugal did in the New World, when they signed the Treaty of Tordesillas on June 7, 1494? They divided the newly discovered lands outside Europe between the Portuguese Empire and the Spanish Empire, by drawing a north-to-south line of demarcation in the Atlantic Ocean, about 345 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of northwestern Africa. All lands west of that line were claimed by Spain. Spain also claimed all of South America except Brazil, which was claimed by Portugal. That’s the reason why Brazil is the only Portuguese-speaking country in South America all the way up to California, Mexico, and Central America. The Philippines was supposed to be claimed by Portugal but they made a mistake and Spain ended up claiming the Philippines.
With the emerging Russo-Sino Axis of Power, the map of the world would change with Europe ending within Russia’s sphere of influence and Asia within China’s sphere of influence. But then, who knows, in people’s mindset today, the days of the empires were long gone. Of all the world’s empires, none has survived. They all collapsed at some point in time. We have seen the collapse of the Soviet Union, which Vladimir Putin had lamented. "The breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century," he once said. “It became a genuine tragedy for the Russian people. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.” He was referring to Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union before the disintegration of the Soviet Empire. Now, Ukraine wishes to become part of NATO. That’s unthinkable. He already lost the Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – that were once parts of the Soviet Empire, and who jumped over the crumbling Iron Curtain to join NATO. He was helpless – and powerless -- to protest.
But today, Putin vowed that he’s not going to let it happen again. He’s got the nuclear weapons to threaten Europe with annihilation, not knowing that it would also destroy his beloved Mother Russia – and his $200 billion stashed away for his retirement -- because America would strike back with an equal amount of nuclear power. Is Putin going to risk a mutually assured destruction? I don’t think so. He might be crazy but he’s not stupid.
What Putin is trying to do is bluff his way to winning by going all in with his nuclear chips. At the end of the day, the Russo-Sino Axis of Power is on the verge of world dominion; that is, if Biden decides that he cannot risk American lives and fold his hand even though he has the winning hand. Yes, that’s how winners lose in a game of international poker.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
PERRYSCOPE
Putin
resorts to nuclear
blackmail
IN APRIL 2013, I wrote a
column titled “Nuclear Blackmail,” where I talked about North Korea’s Supreme
Leader Kim Jong-un’s saber rattling, threatening to send nuclear ballistic
missiles to the United States and Guam.
Although nothing came out of Kim’s threat to send nuclear missiles to the U.S., it brought to the forefront of geopolitics the notion that a nuclear power no matter how small, poses the danger of nuclear holocaust by threatening to use nuclear missiles against another nuclear power.
And once North Korea uses her nuclear weapons, the U.S. will respond by unleashing a torrent of nuclear missiles against North Korea. Conceivably, this could lead to World War III and could, ultimately, end in a Mutually Assured Destruction or MAD, as is commonly used to depict what would result in such an exchange of nuclear missiles.
Putin’s nuclear threat
Nine years later, the same situation happened but on a bigger scale as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons if the U.S. and her allies would invade Ukraine has caused concern in Washington DC. Indeed, with the U.S. arsenal of 5,500 nuclear warheads and Russia’s 6,000, it clearly raises the specter of a nuclear war that would destroy the entire civilization, which raises the question: What kind of a man is he who threatens to destroy mankind? Does the war in Ukraine warrant MAD? Only a mad man could think of such destruction, which makes one wonder: Is Putin crazy to risk nuclear war over some civil disturbances in Ukraine?
I don’t think Putin is crazy. His problem goes far beyond the current situation in Ukraine. One has to go back to December 25, 1991 when the Soviet Empire disintegrated. Vladimir Putin, then a KGB spy, was out of a job. He ended working as a taxi driver to survive.
Although nothing came out of Kim’s threat to send nuclear missiles to the U.S., it brought to the forefront of geopolitics the notion that a nuclear power no matter how small, poses the danger of nuclear holocaust by threatening to use nuclear missiles against another nuclear power.
And once North Korea uses her nuclear weapons, the U.S. will respond by unleashing a torrent of nuclear missiles against North Korea. Conceivably, this could lead to World War III and could, ultimately, end in a Mutually Assured Destruction or MAD, as is commonly used to depict what would result in such an exchange of nuclear missiles.
Putin’s nuclear threat
Nine years later, the same situation happened but on a bigger scale as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons if the U.S. and her allies would invade Ukraine has caused concern in Washington DC. Indeed, with the U.S. arsenal of 5,500 nuclear warheads and Russia’s 6,000, it clearly raises the specter of a nuclear war that would destroy the entire civilization, which raises the question: What kind of a man is he who threatens to destroy mankind? Does the war in Ukraine warrant MAD? Only a mad man could think of such destruction, which makes one wonder: Is Putin crazy to risk nuclear war over some civil disturbances in Ukraine?
I don’t think Putin is crazy. His problem goes far beyond the current situation in Ukraine. One has to go back to December 25, 1991 when the Soviet Empire disintegrated. Vladimir Putin, then a KGB spy, was out of a job. He ended working as a taxi driver to survive.
But he lucked
out when he found himself working for then-President Boris
Yeltsen. One thing led to another. Pretty soon Yeltsin
appointed him Prime Minister. But Yeltsin was very sick, which
forced him to resign. He appointed Putin – a virtual unknown – as
Acting President. Three months later, Putin was elected President of
Russia. He’s been in power ever since.
Geopolitical catastrophe
In 2005, Putin told the Russian nation: “The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” He lamented, saying, “It became a genuine tragedy for the Russian people. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.”
Since then, he became obsessed with reviving the Soviet Empire when Russia ruled over Eastern Europe, from the three Baltic States down to Poland, Romania, and nine other former Soviet satellite countries. By 1997, all of them had joined NATO, except Ukraine who chose to remain neutral. It was a tragic mistake because Ukraine did not avail of the protection of NATO, whose Article 5 states that “an attack on one member will be an attack on all members.”
Putin, who cannot touch any NATO country, took aim at Ukraine. Putin encouraged two separatist regions of Ukraine – Donetsk and Luhansk – to declare independence from Ukraine, which Putin readily recognized as independent countries and declared them as allies. Once again, Putin’s evil genius was at play.
But Biden made a strategic blunder when he vowed never to invade or enter Ukraine. It emboldened Putin, which gave him the wrong message; which in effect was like saying, “Go ahead and invade Ukraine, I’ll stay out of it.” Biden’s reason was that once the U.S. forces entered Ukraine, it would trigger World War III. My God, didn’t Biden remember history? What he did was appease Putin just like when Neville Chamberlain appeased Hitler in 1939 when he declared “Peace for our time" and signed a peace treaty with Hitler. Eight months later, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia, which ignited World War II.
Appeasing Putin
Eighty-four years later, Putin invaded Ukraine. Appeasement failed to work again. With Russian troops and tanks battling their way inside Ukraine, missiles raining on Kyiv, and thousands of Ukrainians fleeing to Poland and Romania, Biden offered help to evacuate the Ukrainian refugees. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declined, saying, “We need ammunition, not a ride.”
In an attempt to show that American forces are ready to help, Biden sent 800 U.S. troops to the Balkan States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, former Soviet republics that are on the border with Russia. Once again, it shows the tokenism that has characterized the Biden administration.
On February 26, the U.S., the U.K., Canada, and Europe committed to remove some Russian banks from the SWIFT system -- Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication -- deploying what the French Finance Minister called a “financial nuclear weapon” because of the damage it would cause to Russia.
At first, Biden was hesitant in supporting the expulsion of Russia from SWIFT. Arguably, it is one measure that appears to strike fear at the heart of the Kremlin, which is to cut Russia from the global banking system.
It is interesting to note that in 2014, Iran was blocked from the SWIFT system because of its nuclear program. In 2019, then-Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said losing access to SWIFT would be akin to a declaration of war against Russia, which demonstrates how vulnerable – and dangerous -- Russia is to such action. I guess that’s what scared Biden.
Deterrent move
Indeed, SWIFT would be one deterrence that would stop Russia from further invading Ukraine, simply because it would cause severe economic dislocation in Russia. It might even bankrupt – and implode -- the Russian economy. That’s like dropping a nuclear bomb without the radioactive effect. We might witness the second disintegration of the former Soviet Empire.
But after Putin broke his word that he’ll never invade Ukraine, Biden was still optimistic that “peace can be achieved for our time.” “There’s still time to avert the worst-case scenario that will bring untold suffering to millions of people if they move as suggested,” Biden said. “The United States and our allies and partners remain open to diplomacy, if it is serious when all is said and done. We’re gonna judge Russia by its actions, not its words.”
But Putin’s actions say it all: Ukraine has been invaded and thousands of Ukrainians are running to Poland, Romania, and Hungary. For all intents and purposes, World War III has begun!
But if Biden wants to achieve peace, all he has to do is appease Putin by accepting his demands; to wit: (1) Ukraine promises never to join NATO; (2) Recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea; and (3) Demilitarize Ukraine’s armed forces. However, Ukraine has stood firm in its resolve to join NATO and the European Union in the future, which was enshrined in Ukraine’s constitution of 2019. Zelensky, ever defiant, said, “We are not afraid of anyone or anything.”
Meanwhile, the Trump cult has gotten behind Putin. Following Trump who said that Putin is a “genius,” cult member Mike Pompeo parroted Trump’s praise, saying Putin is “very shrewd, very capable. I have enormous respect for him.”
Tucker Carlson, a FOX News host, had nothing but praises for Putin. But after Putin invaded Ukraine, Carlson changed his tune, which just shows if he truly means what he says on FOX News.
At the end of the day, while I wish Biden would show more resolve in fighting for the Ukrainians’ independence, I hope that Putin would realize that threatening to use nuclear weapons against the U.S. is nothing more like when children fight, threatening each other but hardly throwing a punch.
In Putin’s case, his threat was nothing more than nuclear blackmail – mark of a coward -- that threatens to use nuclear weapons against the U.S. but doesn’t have the guts to press the First Strike button knowing too well that the U.S. would respond with a devastating Second Strike that could wipe out Moscow off the face of the Earth.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
Geopolitical catastrophe
In 2005, Putin told the Russian nation: “The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” He lamented, saying, “It became a genuine tragedy for the Russian people. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.”
Since then, he became obsessed with reviving the Soviet Empire when Russia ruled over Eastern Europe, from the three Baltic States down to Poland, Romania, and nine other former Soviet satellite countries. By 1997, all of them had joined NATO, except Ukraine who chose to remain neutral. It was a tragic mistake because Ukraine did not avail of the protection of NATO, whose Article 5 states that “an attack on one member will be an attack on all members.”
Putin, who cannot touch any NATO country, took aim at Ukraine. Putin encouraged two separatist regions of Ukraine – Donetsk and Luhansk – to declare independence from Ukraine, which Putin readily recognized as independent countries and declared them as allies. Once again, Putin’s evil genius was at play.
But Biden made a strategic blunder when he vowed never to invade or enter Ukraine. It emboldened Putin, which gave him the wrong message; which in effect was like saying, “Go ahead and invade Ukraine, I’ll stay out of it.” Biden’s reason was that once the U.S. forces entered Ukraine, it would trigger World War III. My God, didn’t Biden remember history? What he did was appease Putin just like when Neville Chamberlain appeased Hitler in 1939 when he declared “Peace for our time" and signed a peace treaty with Hitler. Eight months later, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia, which ignited World War II.
Appeasing Putin
Eighty-four years later, Putin invaded Ukraine. Appeasement failed to work again. With Russian troops and tanks battling their way inside Ukraine, missiles raining on Kyiv, and thousands of Ukrainians fleeing to Poland and Romania, Biden offered help to evacuate the Ukrainian refugees. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declined, saying, “We need ammunition, not a ride.”
In an attempt to show that American forces are ready to help, Biden sent 800 U.S. troops to the Balkan States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, former Soviet republics that are on the border with Russia. Once again, it shows the tokenism that has characterized the Biden administration.
On February 26, the U.S., the U.K., Canada, and Europe committed to remove some Russian banks from the SWIFT system -- Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication -- deploying what the French Finance Minister called a “financial nuclear weapon” because of the damage it would cause to Russia.
At first, Biden was hesitant in supporting the expulsion of Russia from SWIFT. Arguably, it is one measure that appears to strike fear at the heart of the Kremlin, which is to cut Russia from the global banking system.
It is interesting to note that in 2014, Iran was blocked from the SWIFT system because of its nuclear program. In 2019, then-Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said losing access to SWIFT would be akin to a declaration of war against Russia, which demonstrates how vulnerable – and dangerous -- Russia is to such action. I guess that’s what scared Biden.
Deterrent move
Indeed, SWIFT would be one deterrence that would stop Russia from further invading Ukraine, simply because it would cause severe economic dislocation in Russia. It might even bankrupt – and implode -- the Russian economy. That’s like dropping a nuclear bomb without the radioactive effect. We might witness the second disintegration of the former Soviet Empire.
But after Putin broke his word that he’ll never invade Ukraine, Biden was still optimistic that “peace can be achieved for our time.” “There’s still time to avert the worst-case scenario that will bring untold suffering to millions of people if they move as suggested,” Biden said. “The United States and our allies and partners remain open to diplomacy, if it is serious when all is said and done. We’re gonna judge Russia by its actions, not its words.”
But Putin’s actions say it all: Ukraine has been invaded and thousands of Ukrainians are running to Poland, Romania, and Hungary. For all intents and purposes, World War III has begun!
But if Biden wants to achieve peace, all he has to do is appease Putin by accepting his demands; to wit: (1) Ukraine promises never to join NATO; (2) Recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea; and (3) Demilitarize Ukraine’s armed forces. However, Ukraine has stood firm in its resolve to join NATO and the European Union in the future, which was enshrined in Ukraine’s constitution of 2019. Zelensky, ever defiant, said, “We are not afraid of anyone or anything.”
Meanwhile, the Trump cult has gotten behind Putin. Following Trump who said that Putin is a “genius,” cult member Mike Pompeo parroted Trump’s praise, saying Putin is “very shrewd, very capable. I have enormous respect for him.”
Tucker Carlson, a FOX News host, had nothing but praises for Putin. But after Putin invaded Ukraine, Carlson changed his tune, which just shows if he truly means what he says on FOX News.
At the end of the day, while I wish Biden would show more resolve in fighting for the Ukrainians’ independence, I hope that Putin would realize that threatening to use nuclear weapons against the U.S. is nothing more like when children fight, threatening each other but hardly throwing a punch.
In Putin’s case, his threat was nothing more than nuclear blackmail – mark of a coward -- that threatens to use nuclear weapons against the U.S. but doesn’t have the guts to press the First Strike button knowing too well that the U.S. would respond with a devastating Second Strike that could wipe out Moscow off the face of the Earth.
(PerryDiaz@gmail.com)
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