Pivot to the Philippines

PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz

After a two-year thunderous relationship, the U.S. and China seem to start warming up to each other.   Not only did the two countries’ defense chiefs meet in Washington DC, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel extended an invitation to China to participate in a joint naval exercise! 

And in a gesture of openness, Hagel showed Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan the nerve center of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), which is also known as the American strategic nuclear counterattack forefront.  This is where the military’s top brass would operate in the event of a nuclear war with China or any other nuclear-armed country.  Located inside a humongous bunker carved out of the Cheyenne Mountain in Colorado, not a lot of foreigners have been invited inside, let alone the Chinese defense minister. 

Indeed, Chang’s American hosts treated him royally.  He could have reciprocated by just being polite.  That would have been the right thing to do.  Instead, he went on the offensive during a three-hour bilateral meeting with Hagel on August 19, 2013 in Washington DC. 

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In an AFP news report titled, “China will defend seas,” last August 21, Chang was quoted as saying: “We always insist that related disputes be solved through dialogue and negotiation.”  That’s a nice and friendly opening.  But what followed next was a strongly worded statement, to wit: “However, no one should fantasize that China would barter away our core interests, and no one should underestimate our will and determination in defending our territory, sovereignty and maritime rights.” Clearly, his remarks were directed at Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines who are embroiled in territorial disputes with China.

            

Nevertheless, Hagel invited China to participate in an anti-piracy naval exercise in the Gulf of Aden, which was held the weekend of August 24.  China was also invited to take part in a major US naval exercise in 2014, which makes one wonder why is the U.S. suddenly cozying up to China?  But then, Hagel could just be doing “Godfather” Vito Corleone’s favorite line: “Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.”

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Two years ago, the Obama administration announced a plan -- which came to be known as “Pivot to Asia” -- to shift 60% of US air and naval forces to the Asia-Pacific region.  As part of this strategic rebalancing of U.S. air and naval assets, the Pentagon developed the concept of Air-Sea Battle (ASB), which combines air and naval forces to counter “the increasingly formidable defenses of nations like China or Iran.”  

The first line of defense is along the First Island Chain that connects Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Borneo and Malaysia.  China has not broken through the chain; however, she is employing “salami-slicing” tactics to grab small islands – island by island -- in the South China Sea. 

Part of ASB is to encircle China with a string of “small, bare bones bases” in the Pacific along the Second Island Chain, which connects Japan through Guam to Papua.  ASB would provide the US with the ability to disperse her forces should the main bases (Guam’s Anderson Air Base and other Western Pacific airbases) come under attack by Chinese ballistic missiles.  (Source: “US encircling China with military bases: Report,” Press TV)

But no sooner had Chang gone back to China than Hagel took off on a four-nation trip to Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and the Philippines.  His trip to Brunei coincided with the annual meeting of the defense ministers of the 10-member Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN).  Hagel’s move didn’t dwell well with China. 

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Hagel’s visit to the Philippines on August 29-30 signified the US’s determination to strengthen the alliance between the two countries.  But being the weakest link in the First Island Chain, the Philippines is depending on the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) in defending her territory.  But that is not enough.

Currently under negotiation is a framework agreement that would allow the US to increase the presence of American troops and air and naval forces on a rotational basis.  This would provide interoperability of US and Philippine forces to deter aggression or intrusion into Philippine territory.  Given this scenario, China’s military leaders would think twice before they’d attempt to intrude into Philippine territory. 

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It was announced the other day that US President Barack Obama will visit Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines from October 6 to 12; the same countries Hagel visited last August.    

It’s interesting to note that since Obama assumed the presidency in 2009, he had made several trips to the Asia-Pacific region but the Philippines was never on his itinerary.  For some reason, the Philippines didn’t seem to have a significant role in the geopolitical game in Asia-Pacific.  Or, could it have been a subtle message that Uncle Sam didn’t appreciate what the Philippines did in 1992; that is, kick the US bases out?

Whatever the reasons were, the nightmarish threat of Chinese encroachment of Philippine-held islands in the South China Sea is enough for Philippine President Benigno Aquino III to run to Uncle Sam for help!   

It did not then come as a surprise when Wang Guanzhong, a senior officer of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), reportedly warned visiting US Defense Undersecretary James Miller that the US should handle issues “appropriately” to avoid damaging “mutual strategic trust.”  “These issues should not become a problem between China and the United States, and China hopes that the United States does not become a third party in these issues,” Wang said.  In short, what China was telling the U.S. is: “Stay out of my way.”

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In an article published a few months ago in the Want China Times titled, “China to take Second Island Chain by 2020,” it said: “In 1982, Admiral Liu Huaqing, the former commander of the PLA Navy and the mastermind of China’s modern naval strategy, said that it would be necessary for China to control the First and Second Island Chains by 2010 and 2020. The PLA Navy must be ready to challenge US domination over the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean in 2040. If China is able to dominate the Second Island Chain seven years from now, the East China Sea will become the backyard of the PLA Navy.”

If China succeeds in breaking through the First Island Chain and takes control of the Second Island Chain, the entire Western Pacific waters would become “Lake Beijing.” And in the middle of this “lake” is the sea-locked Philippines, isolated from the rest of the world.

Surmise it to say, “Pivot to the Philippines” is the linchpin of the US’s plan to rebalance her air and naval forces in Asia-Pacific.  A century ago, the Philippines was America’s “Gateway to China.”  Today, the Philippines is the “Gatekeeper of the Pacific,” which is to prevent China from dominating and controlling the sea lanes in the Western Pacific waters.  (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)