Xi Jinping’s ‘Pax Sinica’

PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz

What started as a word war between Japan and China could lead to another world war, and perhaps the last world war – of the “Dr. Strangelove” variety -- on planet Earth.  And just the thought of a catastrophic nuclear war would deter China and Japan from starting a war.  So, why then wouldn’t the two protagonists stop jabbing at each other and sit down to settle their territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands to China)? 

But it is easier said than done.   With no economic value that’s worth fighting for, it makes one wonder what do these eight uninhabited small islands and islets have that is making China go gaga over them?  Could it be that there is something else that China wants that is of far greater value than these desolate specks of land in the middle of East China Sea?  

If China gained control of the Senkaku group of islands, which is 114 nautical miles west of Miyako Island, she would be in a position to control or block the Miyako Strait, which connects the East China Sea to the Philippine Sea… and the Pacific Ocean beyond. 

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Recently, China broke through the First Island Chain, which runs from the Asian mainland all the way to Vietnam by way of Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Borneo, and Malaysia.   For the first time, her navy entered the Pacific Ocean from the North China Sea through the narrow Soya Strait between the Russian island of Sakhalin and the Japanese northern island of Hokkaido. 

After spending some time in Western Pacific waters, the ships sailed south to the Philippine Sea and then passed through the Miyako Strait on their return voyage to the home base of the North China Sea Fleet at Qingdao. Soya Strait and Miyako Strait are two of several channels along the First Island Chain.

China didn’t waste any time bragging about it.  In an interview with China Daily during the 86th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Du Wenlong, a senior researcher at the PLA’s Academy of Military Science, said,  “The Chinese navy has the capability to cut the first island chain into several pieces.  Now the chain is fragmented.”  He added that “the repeated passages show that the PLA navy is now capable of sending and supporting its warships to navigate and fight in channels far from the continent.” 

Recently, China sent an observation drone over the Senkaku islands.  Reacting to the intrusion into Japanese airspace, Japan immediately passed a law authorizing the military to shoot down Chinese drones intruding into her territory.  Needless to say, China was infuriated.  A Chinese spokesman warned that an attack against a Chinese drone would be an act of war and would “certainly attract return fire from fighters of PLA Air Force and Navy Air Force.”  

In reaction, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned China against “forcibly changing the regional balance of power.”  Consequently, Japan announced that her Self-Defense Forces (SDF) would deploy a surface-to-ship missile unit on Miyako Island, which would put all the waters between Okinawa and Miyako Island within its range.  

It is interesting to note that during the summit meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama in California last June, Xi told the media that he and Obama were meeting “to chart the future of China-US relations and draw a blueprint for this relationship.”  Then he added: “The vast Pacific Ocean has enough space for two large countries like the United States and China.” 

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If China succeeds in controlling the Miyako Strait and the Soya Strait, she would achieve her goal of breaking the First Island Chain and move on to the next step, which is to control the Second Island Chain, which stretches from Japan all the way to Papua New Guinea by way of the U.S. territories of Guam and Saipan.  That would put China’s navy at America’s threshold.  

In an article titled, “China to take Second Island Chain by 2020,” published several months ago in the Want China Times, it said: “In 1982, Admiral Liu Huaqing, the former commander of the PLA Navy and the mastermind of China’s modern naval strategy, said that it would be necessary for China to control the First and Second Island Chains by 2010 and 2020. The PLA Navy must be ready to challenge US domination over the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean in 2040. If China is able to dominate the Second Island Chain seven years from now, the East China Sea will become the backyard of the PLA Navy.”

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Last October 31, 2013, China’s state-run Global Times published an article, saying that escalating tensions between China and Japan over territorial claims to the Senkaku Islands could ignite a war.  It said that Beijing was preparing for a “worst-case” scenario of military conflict over the disputed islands.     

It seems that China’s “worst-case” scenario is a deliberate attempt to fulfill Xi’s “Chinese Dream,” which is the revival of imperial China -- or PaxSinica (Chinese Peace) – that had maintained Chinese hegemony in Asia during the reign of the Ming dynasty.  “The great revival of the Chinese nation is the greatest Chinese Dream,” Xi said before taking office in November 2012.

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Surmise it to say, China’s carefully orchestrated actions in the past two years are leading to war against Japan… and ultimately against the United States, with the goal of ending American hegemony – Pax Americana -- in the Pacific.The question is: Is China ready to go to war against the U.S.? 

In a Want China Times article last November 2, 2013, Chinese Rear Admiral Yang Yi reportedly said that China needs at least 20 nuclear-powered submarines to defend its maritime interests. Yang said that the United States is now the only maritime superpower with both aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. 

He said that with 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, the U.S. has “the capability to wipe out a medium-size nation with 100 UGM-133 Trident D-5 missiles.” 

Indeed, the only thing that’s stopping China from pursuing her imperialistic ambitions is America’s Trident II D-5 missile.  There are 24 of these missiles with a range of 4,000 nautical miles in each Ohio-class submarine.  It is estimated that 540 of these missiles will be built at the end of 2013. 

But here’s the kicker: Each Trident II D5 missile is loaded with a “Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicle” (MIRV), which can carry up to 14 nuclear warheads.  Currently, the U.S. Navy has 3,030 of these warheads in service.

At this time, it would be suicidal for China to launch a first-strike attack against the U.S.  However, at the rate China is building her navy, she might be able to get closer to parity with the U.S. in 20 years; that is, if the U.S. doesn’t improve or increase her naval power, which seems unlikely to happen. 

But if China is mad enough to pursue Xi Jinping’sPaxSinica and attack the U.S., it could end in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).  And Dr. Strangelove couldn’t be happier. (PerryDiaz@gmail.com)