How dangerous is the Philippines?
>> Sunday, April 28, 2019
PERRYSCOPE
Perry Diaz
A global study conducted
by Global Finance Magazine (GFM) placed the Philippines as the world’s “Most
Dangerous Country.” GFM’s explanation why the Philippines is more dangerous
than Yemen and 126 other countries is: “The safety score for countries equally
weighs each of the three factors: (1) War and Peace, (2) Crime Risk, and (3)
Natural Disaster Risk. The safety score aggregates the indices from these three
risks, thus presenting a comprehensive view of safety for each country.”
GFM further explained:
“This also means that a high level of risk in one factor will have limited
effect on the country’s overall ranking. For example, the Philippines is ranked
least safe while Yemen is ranked second least safe. This can be attributed to
the fact that the Philippines has poor scores in peace, security, and
prevalence of natural disasters. Yemen’s terrible score is due to war and
famine but the country has a very low risk of natural disaster. Thus, the
Philippines ranks lower than Yemen even though Yemen is a war zone.”
GFM said its Safety
Index Score (SIS) used data from the World Economic Forum and the Global
Institute for Peace to create the list. The SIS study covers 128 countries or
over 99.7% of the world’s population and are assessed using 23 indicators.
Countries that hardly
have any natural disaster — such as Iceland — would be low on the SIS list. On
the other hand, countries that have a high risk of natural disasters – such as
the Philippines — would be high on the SIS list.
Global Peace Index
But another study
conducted by the Global Peace Index (GPI), which is produced by the Institute
for Economics & Peace (IEP), showed the Philippines as “Dangerous” but not
the “Most Dangerous.”
GPI measures “global
peace” using three broad themes: (1) The level of safety and security in
society, (2) The extent of domestic and international conflict, and (3) The
degree of militarization. Unlike the SIS, the GPI doesn’t include “Natural
Disaster Risk” as a factor, which made a big difference in the case of the
Philippines because of the tropical storms that left in their wake a devastated
country. And this may have made a big difference in weighing the “safety” of
the Philippines within the SIS and GPI studies.
The following are the
highlights of the 2018 GPI list:
1. Countries that are
engaged in wars or civil wars were high on the GPI list, which placed Syria as
the “Most Dangerous Country” for the third consecutive year.
2. The Philippines is
27th on the GPI list. She is preceded by more dangerous countries Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Mexico, Palestine, and Egypt. She is followed by less dangerous
countries India, Chad, Burundi, Cameroon, and Azerbaijan.
3. On the other end of
the GPI scale, the most peaceful countries were Iceland, New Zealand, Austria,
Portugal, Denmark, and Canada. Iceland has been ranked as the world’s “Most
Peaceful” country every year since 2008.
Natural Disasters
When the Global Finance
Magazine report came out, Filipinos in social media were outraged. Many of them
claimed that the study was “fake news.” They said that it was a “hit piece”
meant to disparage the Philippines and her leaders.
This writer believes
that “War and Peace” and “Crime” can be prevented or controlled by man, while
“Natural Disasters” cannot be prevented or controlled by human intervention.
Natural disasters are limited to a smaller number of countries mostly in Asia.
It is unfair to Asian
countries while it gives advantage to countries that don’t have high or no
occurrences of natural disasters such as Middle Eastern and African countries.
Therefore, “Natural Disaster Risk” shouldn’t be used to measure “safety.”
Take for instance the
Pacific Ring of Fire. According to Wikipedia, it is a major area in the basin
of the Pacific Ocean, where many earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur. It
has 452 volcanoes (more than 75% of the world’s active and dormant volcanoes).
All but three of the world’s 25 largest volcanic eruptions of the last 11,700
years occurred at volcanoes in the Pacific Ring of Fire.
A volcanic eruption
could cause a huge tidal wave called tsunami. The two tsunamis that occurred in
the Aceh region in Indonesia in the past decade caused massive destruction and
deaths. Tsunami occurs frequently in Japan. Tsunamis and volcanic eruptions
cannot be controlled or prevented.
Another type of natural disaster is tropical storm, which originates from the Pacific Ocean and moves westward towards Eastern Philippines and eventually hits East Asia and Southeast Asia. Tropical storms hit the Philippines at least 20 times a year of which five to eight would wreak havoc to almost all the regions in the country.
Another type of natural disaster is tropical storm, which originates from the Pacific Ocean and moves westward towards Eastern Philippines and eventually hits East Asia and Southeast Asia. Tropical storms hit the Philippines at least 20 times a year of which five to eight would wreak havoc to almost all the regions in the country.
To factor Natural
Disaster Risk into the Safety Index Score is therefore unfair to countries that
are vulnerable to earthquakes, tropical storms, and tsunamis.
If Global Finance
Magazine fails to remove “Natural Disaster Risk” from the criteria used in the
Safety Index Score, countries around the Pacific Ring of Fire would be at a
disadvantage and their Safety Index Score would continually rate them as more
dangerous than countries that have lesser Natural Disaster Risk or none at all.
Illegal drugs
In the case of Global
Peace Index published by the Institute for Economics & Peace, this writer
believes that the factors used in the study were fair and objective. In the
case of the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte’s administration could
improve the safety of the citizens from criminal elements. But as it turned
out, extrajudicial killings (EJKs) perpetrated by criminal elements have become
the number one threat to the safety of the citizens.
While EJKs were intended
to reduce the number of drug pushers and users, recent police data showed that
they have increased, which makes one wonder if EJK is effective in stopping
drug smuggling and trafficking?
The Duterte
administration should go after the drug smugglers and traffickers, not their
victims. Rid the Philippines of predatory drug traffickers and you’d see a
rapid decline in the use of illegal drugs, which is the most dangerous threat
to the safety of Filipinos.
This writer therefore
recommends that “Illegal Drug Risk” replace “Natural Disaster Risk” in the
GFM’s Safety Index Score. We can then say that the Safety Index Score truly
reflects a “comprehensive view of safety for each country.” And at that time,
we can then ask: How dangerous is the Philippines?
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