Probing OCTA and other polling firms

 BEHIND THE SCENES

Alfred Dizon

Congressmen of the Lower House pushed an investigation into “qualifications” and “background” of the OCTA Research independent group, which had been providing analyses and projections in relation to the Covid-19 crisis in the country.
    House Deputy Speakers Bernadette Herrera (Bagong Henerasyon Party-list), Kristine Singson-Meehan (Ilocos Sur, 2nd District), and Sharon Garin (AAMBIS-OWA Party-list), Deputy Minority Leader Stella Luz Quimbo (Marikina, 2nd District), and Rep. Jesus “Bong” Suntay (Quezon City, 4th District) on Tuesday filed House resolution 2075, which urges the House committee on good government and public accountability to launch a probe in aid of legislation.
    The solons urged the panel to determine the organization’s “qualifications, research methodologies, partnerships, and composition,” which have been distributing data and forecasts on the pandemic situation in the Philippines since last year.
    “There is a public health and public policy and there is need to ensure safety and security of the population during this pandemic, and that information being distributed is correct and are not irresponsibly and erroneously published,” their resolution read.
    It cited claims of infectious diseases expert Dr. Edsel Salvana who called OCTA’s projections “problematic” and allegedly based on “incomplete and erroneous data” considering backlog of Covid-19 tests.
    “OCTA is calculating Covid-19 reproduction numbers based on cases reported in the last two weeks,” the measure stated, citing Salvana.
    “OCTA Research stated Metro Manila is ‘officially in a surge’ when it pushed the government to impose circuit-breaker lockdowns in July 2021. Both the Department of Health and Dr. Salvana urged independent experts to apply circumspection in making such statements in order to avoid public panic,” it added.
    Lawmakers also said there was need to “validate” affiliation of OCTA Research with the University of the Philippines System “as the former publicized a partnership which the latter seemingly denied.”
In a television interview, Suntay said the call for the congressional probe does not intend to smear OCTA but only to clarify the body’s credentials.
    “We’re not saying that we don’t trust the OCTA Research group. The only thing we want is clarity and uniformity on the methodology being used,” Suntay said, adding contrasting data may confuse the public.
    The congressman was also quoted as saying officials from the DOH will also be invited to the hearing to find out if OCTA and the government agency employ a similar methodology and utilize comparable figures.
    “The people are already scared, we don’t have to scare them more, we don’t want to confuse them more so they can be prepared,” Suntay said.
     Last year, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, out of nowhere, OCTA Research (or UP OCTA Research as it was referred to then) suddenly hit the headlines as it released its projections on local cases of the dreaded virus.
    Presidential spokesman Harry Roque bragged one time that “the country was able to beat the UP OCTA Research projection as we did not reach the independent monitoring group’s projection of the number of cases for that particular month.”
    Pundits said OCTA’s projections were a sometimes hit, sometimes missed prognosis of contagion.
The research group has not been spared from online criticism, with a number of netizens accusing it of “fear mongering.” Even the DOH and a member of the government’s Technical Advisory Group on Covid-19 advised the group to “apply circumspection in making pandemic-related statements, in order to minimize public panic.”  
    This was after the independent monitoring group was slammed as being alarmist for calling on the national government to declare a circuit breaker lockdown as it projected Covid-19 cases to hit 10,000 daily.
    Reports said the projection was again a miss as the daily cases was in the vicinity of 6,000, which had been the case for past two month or three months already.
    With their hit-and-miss projections used by the media since last year, five lawmakers sought the congressional inquiry.
    The lawmakers also wanted the House panel to probe the supposed “connection between OCTA Research and the University of the Philippines System, as the former publicized a partnership which the latter seemingly denied.”
    Previous infographics and press releases across press outlets and social media platforms refered to the “University of the Philippines-OCTA” group (UP-OCTA) or the “UP-OCTA Research Team” in predicting surges of Covid-19 cases. Moreover, OCTA Research fellow Professor Ranjit Rye has been quoted to refer to the group as the “UP-OCTA Research Team.”
    This, however, was refuted by UP-Diliman Associate Professor Peter Cayton who was quoted in a news report that there is no office within the campus named OCTA, and that it does “not exist in UP’s organizational structure.”
    Observers said the House could also probe OCTA Research’s methodology in their political survey, along with those of other polling firms.
    Having gained propaganda mileage in their Covid-19 projections, OCTA Research has ventured into political surveys, which is part of its thrust, as based on its website.
    On their website, OCTA describes itself as a “polling, research and consultation firm” that provides “comprehensive, holistic, accurate, rigorous, and insightful data analysis to help our clients in government, the private sector and the NGO community.”
    It further said OCTA specializes in public opinion research, qualitative and quantitative research, policy research and advocacy, and training and capacity building.
    Last January, OCTA released results of its survey showing Manila Mayor Isko Moreno as the preferred presidential bet in the National Capital Region.
    A few days ago, it again released the results of its latest survey showing Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte a clear winner for president should the elections be held today.
    Interestingly, both survey results mirror the results of Pulse Asia.
    Does this validate the survey results of Pulse Asia? This is creating suspicions survey results are being doctored through the methodology employed by these polling firms.
    Reports bared Pulse Asia and SWS reportedly maintain interlocking directorship in the persons of Mercy Abad and Jose “Ping” de Jesus, a former cabinet secretary of the late President Cory Aquino, and the late President Noynoy Aquino’s former secretary for Transportation and Communication.
    This interlocking of directorship of the two firms, reports said, could then explain why the survey results of SWS and Pulse Asia do not vary much in terms of figures.
    It’s now OCTA Research which appears to mirror survey results of another polling firm.
    A congressman asked if they share the same set of interlocking directors and same respondents. “It is about time they are made to explain their methodology and validate the results of their own surveys.”
    Are “hao siao” polling firms increasing and feeding erroneous information and “mind conditioning data” to the public?
    Let us see what the Lower House probe will unearth.