Tensions Will Continue in the Pacific Rim

By Erick San Juan

War rhetoric between the U.S. and China is finally starting to cool down. The title of an article by James Holbrooks (TheAntiMedia.org) posted at True Activist (Feb. 7) but is it really cooling down?

Holbrooks based the said situation when Secretary of Defense James Mattis suggested the hotly disputed issue of the South China Sea should be handled diplomatically rather than through warfare. Yes, a very comforting statement in the midst of tensions in the East and South China Sea.

Calling the defense secretary’s words a “mind-soothing pill” that “dispersed the clouds of war that many feared were gathering over the South China Sea,” the China Daily hinted at a warning in U.S.-China relations.

“Mattis has inspired optimism here that things may not be as bad as previously portrayed,” the state-controlled newspaper wrote.

Although in reality things are not as mind-soothing as it seems. As the article continues: “In fact, even as James Mattis was suggesting over the weekend that between the U.S. and China, the diplomatic road was the one to take on the issue of territorial sovereignty, he was also accusing the Asian superpower of using coercion to force its will upon neighboring countries.

“We have watched in the South China Sea as China has shredded the trust of nations in the region,” Mattis said at the conference in Tokyo, “apparently trying to have veto authority over security and economic conditions of neighboring states.”

Providing further evidence that tensions are invariably rising between China and the United States — despite what government officials on both sides might happen to say at a given time — Fox News reported Monday that three Chinese warships have just sailed into the East China Sea.

It would be difficult to argue the timing is coincidental, as just two days before, the U.S. solidified its security commitments to ally Japan. And those commitments essentially back up the claim that Japan — not China — has a sovereign claim to the contested Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

In effect, it’s the same fundamental disagreement over two different bodies of water — both of which are in one region. And it’s a region neither the United States nor China appears willing to cede control over.”

That is the crucial point of finding ways to really avoid an impending war between the US and China – the control over contested territories in the region. In both cases – the East and South China Sea, the nations involved are both allies of the US, namely Japan and the Philippines.

The war rhetoric may cool down for a while but the tensions will continue. Even our own President Rodrigo Duterte said several times that the moment will come, in his term, that our country and China will sit down and will discuss the arbitration body’s ruling that favored our country. Whether China will like it or not, the said ruling from The Hague should be honored to give way to a lasting peace in the region and not just a piecemeal.

It is quite obvious that it is not only China’s needs that has to be addressed when it comes to natural resources which is in abundance in the contested area in the South China Sea by fortifying the reclaimed areas militarily by China. There is no way for our country to have the chance of extracting oil, gas and other minerals that will also supply our growing needs and be used for our development.

That is the gist of the article by Gregory Poling – Prepare for A Stormy 2017 in the South China Sea – The number of Chinese naval, coast guard, and paramilitary vessels in the area will continue to grow as facilities at the three large artificial islands allow Chinese assets to consistently patrol the southern reaches of the nine-dash line as never before. China also continues to construct sophisticated radar and signals intelligence capabilities, bolstering its ability to monitor and intercept vessels anywhere in the area, and advanced anti-aircraft and anti-missile point defenses to protect these new power projection capabilities.

The desire to see Chinese diplomatic softening as a sign of a new status quo is understandable, and it is important that the door be left open for Beijing to deescalate. But China’s recent behavior should be seen as the best indicator of its future intentions. Beijing has accomplished its short-term goal of avoiding widespread censure after the July ruling. But it made no effort to clarify its claims or slowdown military construction, which would have suggested a more long-term commitment to peacefully resolve disputes. It is therefore only reasonable to assume that China continues to seek dominance throughout the nine-dash line, by coercion when necessary. Unlike the Philippines and Malaysia, other countries with a stake in the South China Sea recognize this and are preparing for heightened tensions as China makes use of its new facilities. The incoming U.S. administration will need to do the same, because the next crisis is likely just a matter of time.”

We should be wary of the pressure for President Rody Duterte to implement a revolutionary government as per instigation of a self proclaimed local CIA laying the predicate. He thought he may get what he wish for at our expense.

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Word War No More?

By Erick San Juan

Beijing on Friday—the 13th no less—threatened the United States with “large-scale war.”

“Prepare for a military clash,” said the Global Times in an editorial.

Beijing was hitting back hard against remarks made by Rex Tillerson, Donald Trump’s pick for secretary of State, in his confirmation hearing. “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed,” he told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Wednesday (January 11).

The nominee also said China’s militarizing the islands is “akin to Russia’s taking of Crimea.”

Observers gasped at Tillerson’s words, which signaled a radical change in American policy toward China. Yet his general approach toward Beijing, despite all the criticism he has attracted in the last few days, is the correct one for these times.” (Source: The Daily Beast, Gordon G. Chang 1.16.2017)

Is it really the right approach towards China’s claim in the South China Sea, confrontational rather than diplomacy?

Analysts said Tillerson’s testimony, combined with his future boss’s earlier pronouncements, signaled that a Trump administration is poised to take a much tougher stance on China.

Since winning the election, Trump has lashed out at China on Twitter, made clear he’s serious about wringing a new trade deal from Beijing and upended US policy toward Taiwan — an issue of deep sensitivity for China.

“All the quotes taken together do signal that, like Trump and some of his advisers, are poised to take much firmer stance on China in the South China Sea and across the board,” said Ashley Townshend, a research fellow, at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

But Townshend doubted whether Tillerson would really follow through on some of the specifics of his testimony.

“The US cannot block China’s access to the islands without causing a confrontation, probably a military confrontation, and it would be illegal for the US to block access to the vast majority of those islands and reefs,” he said. (Source: Tillerson sets stage for showdown with Beijing over South China Sea by Katie Hunt, CNN, 1.13.17)

Most likely a regional conflict will erupt once US under Trump regime will implement such blockade to stop China’s access to the reclaimed islands in the SCS. And what will be the stand of our country if ever a confrontation will occur?

RP must avoid the prospect of entanglement. A sound advice from businessman Manny Lopez in his analysis – A geopolitical scenario wherein an ultimatum from the US and its allies to stop the development and militarization of artificial islands in SCS being rejected by China is highly probable. Initially, a limited Air-Sea battle between the dominant and rising power to test their resolve will happen either by accident or localized decision, unless reason and skillful diplomacy prevails pre-emptively. The Republic of the Philippines must avoid entanglements in the superpower conflict by intelligently pursuing an independent and neutral foreign policy. We must not allow our shores to become the staging ground of the war effort by either side. However, we must continue to positively engage both superpowers and offer win-win solutions to help resolve the upcoming conflict and save ourselves.

China’s expected refusal to dismantle its air-defense and anti-ship missile systems deployed in the 7 artificial islands in SCS could be a compelling reason for the US Navy to attack using submarine-launched Harpoons and ship-borne Tomahawk cruise missiles to eliminate the said installations from a safe distance. Freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is perceived to be crucial to ensure unhampered trade in the busy shipping route, where more than US$ 5-Trillion worth of goods transits each year. At least a couple of US carrier battle groups supported by Japanese, Australian and South Korean navies will likely be deployed in the area to effect control of the sea lanes. How the Russian and Indian Navies will play their role in the inevitable conflict is yet to be determined.”

As an observer of events as they unfold, we have been writing (and speaking in our daily radio broadcast) that we must not allow the use of our territories as the battleground for another conflict in the region and much more – not to drag our country and people to an unnecessary war in the process.

With the new leadership in the US, we are in for some surprising times. Finally, the administration that will threaten the “great wall of sand” in the SCS and might give Xi some second thoughts of changing his foreign policy was leaked by the Bloomberg News tuesday January 24,2017 and published by Business Mirror.

“Confronted by the challenge of a Donald J. Trump led White House, China is signaling it’s ready to work with the new administration and has already taken a handful of policy steps that may help fend off criticism over access to its markets.”

But it’s not all olive branch, Xinhua news article congratulating Trump also laid out the areas China regards as off limits. It said, “China’s resolve to safeguard it’s defining interests in Taiwan and the South China Sea islands has always been strong.”

Xi allegedly has a strong domestic imperative not to appear weak before a twice a decade Communist party congress when several top leaders are due to be replaced except himself?

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