OCTA: Delta Variant may kill thousands
>> Friday, August 6, 2021
2-week
lockdown pushed; cases up
The independent OCTA
Research group on Wednesday proposed two weeks of hard lockdown warning a surge
caused by the Delta variant may kill thousands.
The OCTA said the lockdown would prevent a "catastrophic" spike.
OCTA founder Professor Ranjit Rye said the government should learn from the surge that happened in March and April that was driven by the Alpha and Beta variants.
"It is unfortunate that the Delta variant has become a game changer and a challenge that we need to contemplate hard interventions like lockdowns. We feel that a catastrophic surge left unfettered, unabridged by a lack of government intervention is a greater loss to all of us, loss of life and livelihoods," Rye said during a media briefing on Wednesday.
"If we let this go, it explodes, we will have thousands of cases, and we are not certain if our hospital capacity can deal with that so that thousands more may die. We are trying to save lives here. Let's lock down as soon as possible," he added.
OCTA Senior Research Fellow Dr. Guido David said if the government delays its lockdown until the middle of August, daily average cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) will escalate from as low as 2,000 cases to as high as 5,000.
"We can eventually decrease it down to less than 1,000 cases or go down toward 600 even with a two-week circuit breaker," David said.
A circuit breaker starting August 8 will see the NCR have as low as 1,700 cases per day, while imposing it on August 15 will see the region having 2,500 cases per day.
"It will take us a minimum of four weeks to control this case load," David said,
Another OCTA fellow, Dr. Michael Tee, said hospitals should ensure that there are enough health care workers to take care of Covid-19 patients.
"This will allow us to convert hospital beds with agility when the surge happens. In the meantime, the additional health care workers will be helpful in improving care during non-surge periods," Tee said.
Microbiologist Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said the mobility of people should be reduced "to break chains of transmission."
Dr. Regina Berba of the Philippine General Hospital, meanwhile, urged communities to act like the Delta variant is prevalent and not wait for genome sequencing results to act faster to overcome the threat.
The Department of Health said there is yet no definitive evidence of a surge in the NCR.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said while hospital utilization rate remains low nationally, the department continues to strengthen health system capacities.
"We acknowledge that there is an increase of our case metrics which is why we urge people to continue adhering to the minimum health standards and get vaccinated, and for our local government units to strictly implement our protocols," Vergeire said.
On Wednesday, the country reported 4,478 new cases of Covid-19, for a total of 1.567 million.
The OCTA said the lockdown would prevent a "catastrophic" spike.
OCTA founder Professor Ranjit Rye said the government should learn from the surge that happened in March and April that was driven by the Alpha and Beta variants.
"It is unfortunate that the Delta variant has become a game changer and a challenge that we need to contemplate hard interventions like lockdowns. We feel that a catastrophic surge left unfettered, unabridged by a lack of government intervention is a greater loss to all of us, loss of life and livelihoods," Rye said during a media briefing on Wednesday.
"If we let this go, it explodes, we will have thousands of cases, and we are not certain if our hospital capacity can deal with that so that thousands more may die. We are trying to save lives here. Let's lock down as soon as possible," he added.
OCTA Senior Research Fellow Dr. Guido David said if the government delays its lockdown until the middle of August, daily average cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) will escalate from as low as 2,000 cases to as high as 5,000.
"We can eventually decrease it down to less than 1,000 cases or go down toward 600 even with a two-week circuit breaker," David said.
A circuit breaker starting August 8 will see the NCR have as low as 1,700 cases per day, while imposing it on August 15 will see the region having 2,500 cases per day.
"It will take us a minimum of four weeks to control this case load," David said,
Another OCTA fellow, Dr. Michael Tee, said hospitals should ensure that there are enough health care workers to take care of Covid-19 patients.
"This will allow us to convert hospital beds with agility when the surge happens. In the meantime, the additional health care workers will be helpful in improving care during non-surge periods," Tee said.
Microbiologist Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said the mobility of people should be reduced "to break chains of transmission."
Dr. Regina Berba of the Philippine General Hospital, meanwhile, urged communities to act like the Delta variant is prevalent and not wait for genome sequencing results to act faster to overcome the threat.
The Department of Health said there is yet no definitive evidence of a surge in the NCR.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said while hospital utilization rate remains low nationally, the department continues to strengthen health system capacities.
"We acknowledge that there is an increase of our case metrics which is why we urge people to continue adhering to the minimum health standards and get vaccinated, and for our local government units to strictly implement our protocols," Vergeire said.
On Wednesday, the country reported 4,478 new cases of Covid-19, for a total of 1.567 million.
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